The most anticipated Division Series matchup is in the National League this postseason. And it’s a replay of a battle last year that had a surprising ending.
The Philadelphia Phillies upset the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves in four games on their way to the 2022 October Classic.
Now, the Phillies are trying to play spoiler again versus a 104-win Braves team, but this time Philadelphia is the defending National League champs.
This is must-see TV (or must-see streaming if that’s how you do it).
The other NL Division Series is plenty intriguing, too. The Los Angeles Dodgers are still kings of the NL West, but the rising Arizona Diamondbacks are hoping to steal their crown for now and the future.
Here’s a look at both matchups with predictions at the end.
(4) Philadelphia Phillies (90-72) at (1) Atlanta Braves (104-58)
First game: Saturday, 6:07 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
2023 head-to-head record: Braves, 8-5; 74-58 cumulative scoring in favor of Atlanta.
Odds to win series: Braves, -155; 60.8% probability to win, according to SportsBetting.ag.
How they got here: The Braves beat everything and everybody on their way to 104 victories, their most since winning 106 in 1998. Only one day this season – after their third game – did the Braves not own at least a share of first place in the NL East. The Phillies, the defending NL champs, didn’t have one day in first in the East in 2023. And yet here the rivals are, together, for what could be another classic.
Why this matchup is intriguing: Because it is the Braves and the Phillies. Because both teams are mega-talented, star-studded and postseason tested. These are the NL’s last two representatives in the World Series. And it wouldn’t be surprising if the winner of this battle is the World Series rep again. The Phillies knocked the Braves out of the playoffs in this round last year. So, there’s a redemption angle, too.
Why the Phillies will win: Because they know what it takes to advance in this tourney and there is no panic in this club. Almost half of their wins – 44 of 90 – were of the comeback variety. The Phillies were top 5 in the NL in most offensive and pitching categories, including bullpen ERA, which was third with a 3.58. In 2022, the Phillies’ bullpen ERA was 4.27 and 11th of 15 NL teams, but they’ve really shored up that inadequacy. The Phillies offense could walk more and strike out a little less, but there isn’t a glaring weakness on this club, except maybe that it plays in the same division as the Braves.
Why the Braves will win: Because no team is better. Period. They have the most talented and deepest roster. And they’ve done the most with it. They crushed 307 homers, tying for tops in a single season in baseball history and 58 more than the closest NL team (the Dodgers). They also allowed the second least amount of runs in the NL, thanks to a rotation that boasted four starters with ERAs under 3.90 and a bullpen that had the second-lowest ERA in the league. No team is perfectly balanced, but this one isn’t far off.
Phillies player to watch: 2B Bryson Stott
Stott is one of the least recognizable Phillies from a national standpoint, but he seems to be in the middle of everything for this team. Stott, who turned 26 Friday, has stepped up every facet of his game since his rookie campaign in 2022. He hit a career-best 15 homers, stole a career-high 31 bases and posted a .747 OPS, nearly 100 points higher than he did in 2022. He also switched from shortstop to second base and posted 7 defensive runs saved above average. His 4.4 bWAR is tops on a superbly talented Phillies club.
Braves player to watch: Ronald Acuña Jr.
You need to watch him because he is the best player in baseball not named Ohtani. Hitting 41 homers and stealing 73 bases in the same season is mind-boggling – a 40-70 season has never been done before. And who knows when it will happen again. With apologies to some great NL player performances this year, Acuña deserves to be the unanimous NL MVP.
Prediction: I cannot wait to watch this series. It might be the best matchup of the entire postseason, and I wish it could go seven games. I really don’t know how it will play out, but the Braves are the team to beat in 2023. Braves in five.
(6) Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at (2) Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
First game: Saturday, 9:20 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
2023 head-to-head record: Dodgers, 8-5; 72-47 cumulative scoring in favor of Los Angeles.
Odds to win series: Dodgers, -220; 68.8% probability to win.
How they got here: The Dodgers won the NL West for the 10th time in 11 chances and won 100 games or more for their fourth consecutive full season. This was not the smoothest of years for the Dodgers, but they used a 24-5 August to pull away from the competition. The Diamondbacks are in the postseason for the first time since 2017, securing the sixth seed on the season’s final weekend. They then went to Milwaukee and swept the NL Central winners, 2-0, including beating Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes in Game 1.
Why this matchup is intriguing: Because it may signal a bit of a change in the NL West. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in 2021 and 88 last year before making the postseason this season. This young group is led by likely NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who plays like he’s 28 not 23. His power-speed combo – he hit 25 homers and stole 54 bases – is already among the best in the majors and is paired with his elite outfield defense.
Why Diamondbacks will win: Because they have two excellent starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, arguably the best defense in baseball and an offense paced by three hitters who have .800-plus OPS. The Diamondbacks have struggled against the Dodgers, losing their last five matchups. But the San Diego Padres proved last year that the aging Dodgers aren’t contractually permitted to go straight to the NLCS every year. And, for once, the Dodgers’ rotation looks human, especially without Dustin May (elbow surgery) and Julio Urías (administrative leave).
Why Dodgers will win: Because they have an offense led by likely Hall-of-Famers Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts and a pitching staff topped by guaranteed future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw. Young arms have contributed, particularly 24-year-old Bobby Miller, and the bullpen has the best 1-2, late-inning punch in Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips.
Diamondbacks player to watch: OF Corbin Carroll
Every postseason there is a young player who cements his spot as one of the most exciting in the game with a standout performance while everyone is watching. Carroll was outstanding in the two-game Wild Card series, reaching base in six of his nine plate appearances with a homer and a double. He may not be able to offer an encore in the NLDS, especially after struggling to a .560 OPS in 13 games against the Dodgers this year. But this guy’s overall talent is tremendous.
Dodgers player to watch: Mookie Betts
He’ll be 31 on Saturday and has lost a step on the basepaths. But no one plays the game smarter or harder than Betts, and he’s having one of the best seasons of a sublime career. He again hit 40 doubles – for the seventh time – and added a career-high 39 home runs while posting a .987 OPS which was his best since his MVP year in 2018. Eventually, this guy will slow down, so enjoy him at the top of his game while we still can.
Prediction: It always seems like there is an underdog team that gets rolling in the postseason and shocks better opponents in a short series. I haven’t predicted that yet, so here we go. Diamondbacks in five.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.