Back in 2021, the New York Mets went 77-85. That offseason they brought in new manager Buck Showalter, added some pitching, and ended up going 101-61 in 2022. Last season the team fell back down to 75-87 in a tough NL East, but they’re following a similar script, bringing in a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, and bringing in some additional arms. Instead of a former Oakland A’s right-hander, they brought in a former A’s lefty.
From the outside looking in, it’s tough to tell just how excited fans should be about the Mets in 2024. Last season was rough, and it led to the team trading away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline while still eating loads of money on those deals.
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On the other hand, owner Steve Cohen is still spending to make the team at the very least competitive, if not a postseason contender.
The main story to follow with the club this year will be what they do with Pete Alonso. If they fall out of it like they did last year will they trade him? He’ll be a free agent after the season, and he’s a big part of the New York offense right now, but do they want to sign him up to man first base for the long haul? How well the club does this season could have an impact on that decision.
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Mets additions and subtractions
Since the Mets did most of their unloading at the Trade Deadline, they didn’t see too many players depart from last year’s club. Trevor Gott is the biggest impact player that is no longer with the club after putting up a one WAR season and signing with the A’s. The only other positive WAR players no longer with the club are Daniel Vogelbach (0.1) and Rafael Ortega (0.5).
So the Mets had nowhere to go but up, really.
New POBO David Stearns made some shrewd additions to the roster that should put the club in a better place to have success this season. Harrison Bader (2.1 projected WAR), Sean Manaea (1.4), Luis Severino (1.1), Adrian Houser (1), and Tyrone Taylor (1.2) are all guys that should have a decent impact in building up the team’s floor. If you add in a breakout season for a younger player, or a few guys improving just a touch, then all of a sudden the Mets are somewhere in between their 2022 and 2023 seasons, which is likely enough to earn them a postseason berth.
The biggest addition to the roster is Edwin Díaz, who was already under contract, but missed all of last season with a knee injury he suffered in the World Baseball Classic. He had a 1.31 ERA in 2022 and collected 32 saves in both ’21 and ’22 for the Mets. Getting him back is a big deal.
If we include the addition of Díaz to the roster, the Mets projected WAR from new players on the roster this year outpaces the WAR they got from departed players by a healthy clip at nine wins above replacement. Obviously, you don’t just add nine wins to their win total from last year to figure out how they’ll do this year, but it does give you the sense that the Mets should be a better team than they were a year ago.
Mets 2024 season outlook
Getting Díaz back is huge. Pete Alonso in a contract year could be huge. Losing Kodai Senga could be a large step back. The team’s best starting pitcher is currently shut down after sustaining a shoulder strain and is set to miss Opening Day. Getting the ball in the first game of the season will be Jose Quintana, who was solid for the Mets in limited innings last season (3.57 ERA in 75 2/3 innings) and has been solid in his work this spring.
The projections over at FanGraphs see New York as an 80-82 club, while Baseball Prospectus is a little higher at 83-79. Not a huge difference in terms of projections, but it’s huge when you consider the number of teams in the National League that aren’t the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers, most of whom seem to be in the same 79-84 win spread. An 83-win season could potentially be enough to land the third wild-card spot. An 80-win campaign almost certainly doesn’t.
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The Mets will be unafraid to make moves at the deadline to improve or dismantle the roster, so the start that they get off to could play a huge role in what kind of a year this will be. If they can stay afloat without Senga for a little while and then add on to the roster a little later, then they have a pretty good shot at playing in October. The rotation outside of Senga has some upside to outperform their projections, but the way the prognosticators see it, they have five guys behind the author of the ghost ball that are all roughly league average. That’s not a bad thing, but if you have a bunch of league-average players, then you’re going to finish with a league-average (81-81) record.
The Mets will need someone to jump up and take a step forward in 2024 to set themselves apart from the wild card hunt in the National League.
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Mets player to watch in 2024
One player that could take a step forward and have a big impact on the 2024 New York Mets is Francisco Álvarez. He had a solid first year in the big leagues last season with a 97 wRC+ (100 is league average), hitting 25 home runs while batting .209 with a .284 OBP. Getting a little more production out of the bat would be helpful, but improvement behind the plate could impact the entire roster.
While Álvarez was a solid pitch framer last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among backstops, he also threw out just 15 of 114 base stealers last season. That 12% caught-stealing rate was one of the lowest in baseball, ranking 54th out of 63 catchers.
This spring he has been working on his footwork to help with that. The goal is to keep his elite framing ability, but also get him a little quicker pop time when he’s throwing to second with a runner on the move. If he’s able to translate this into the regular season and keep runners from grabbing an extra base as consistently, then that will take off some of the pressure on the pitching staff and keep some runs off the board.
When you’re projected to be a team with an average record, a run here or there could add up over the course of a full season, and lead to a few extra wins. Maybe it’ll be enough wins to get the Mets back into the postseason.
