With that, the final off-week of the NASCAR season has passed, leaving 20 consecutive weeks through November to crown three champions at Phoenix Raceway.
And what a season it has been so far, defined by several huge penalties, continued development challenges with the second-year car but continued parity throughout the field. There is a lot to look forward to over the next six months.
This remains one of the most consequential periods in NASCAR history between a radically different car, a willingness to drastically alter the schedule from year-to-year and the evolving economic landscape involved with simply being part of the weekly NASCAR circus.
A handful of those big picture questions will be answered over the next several months and others will remain. Here is a viewer’s guide to the second half of the 2023 NASCAR season. The remaining Cup and Xfinity Series races move to NBC Sports and USA Network while the Truck Series remains on FS1.
Will Chase Elliott qualify for the NASCAR playoffs?
It goes without saying that there is a direct correlation between NASCAR’s modern television viability and the continued competitive presence of its most popular driver in Chase Elliott. The 2020 Cup Series champion has missed seven races this spring due to a snowboarding injury and a one-race suspension for intentionally crashing Denny Hamlin. Television ratings were down 12-15 percent in the races he missed and its reasonable to expect that trend to repeat itself if Elliott isn’t a championship factor over the final 10 races.
Elliott currently faces an 84-point deficit, not impossible but also not likely, and might need to win at one of the following tracks: Nashville, Downtown Chicago, Atlanta, New Hampshire, Pocono, Richmond, Michigan, Indianapolis Road Course, Watkins Glen or Daytona. Elliott has averaged about 3.5 wins over the past five seasons, so it’s not impossible, but time is starting to run out.
Who will make the playoffs?
While the likes of Elliott, Erik Jones, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece surely need to win their way into the playoffs due to penalties or missed time, the actual points battle to make the field of 16 is as close as it gets. Bubba Wallace in 15th to 24th Todd Gilliland are separated by just 75 points. Alex Bowman missed three weeks with a back injury and is clinging to the final provisional playoff spot as a result. He’s just three points ahead of Daniel Suarez, 11 ahead of Ty Gibbs, 14 ahead of Michael McDowell, 33 ahead of AJ Allmendinger.
If Bowman, Brad Keselowski or Wallace falter, a third of the field is positioned to capitalize. There is however, one extra point to ponder, in that each win from a driver outside of the top-16 will make it harder to advance into the field of 16 on points. So, there are multiple points of drama to consider for the next 10 weeks.
Will there be more penalties?
The 2023 season has already featured some of the largest penalties for technical infractions in the history of the sport. NASCAR intends to change the culture of competition with a single source supplied car and a rule book that prevents tampering with its intended designed.
The penalties have already affected the standings and it’s worth wondering if teams will continue to push the envelope. It’s a razor thin margin between creating a competitive advantage and inviting the wrath of the sanctioning body. It’s not entirely unreasonable to expect that at least one more seismic penalty could alter the championship landscape before the end of the season.
What next for Silly Season?
Sportsnaut confirmed on Monday that Josh Berry will be moving up to Cup next season to replace Kevin Harvick in the Stewart Haas Racing No. 4. There are still more questions to be answered at Stewart-Haas when it comes to the No. 10 car and the status of veteran Aric Almirola. Zane Smith is under contract to Front Row Motorsports and would require a buyout to move to SHR if Almirola retires. Michael McDowell could be an option for the No. 10 as well.
It’s becoming more likely that Martin Truex Jr. will remain at Joe Gibbs Racing for another season, but any change of heart will open another high-profile seat as well.
TV rights, charter agreement considerations
NASCAR, whose $8.2 billion agreements with FOX and NBC expire after next season, very well could finalize the next batch of agreements by the end of the year. The sanctioning body has been working towards that goal for the past two years and this is around the time agreements get finalized.
There is an increasing likelihood that FOX and NBC will remain in some capacity, but NASCAR could get creative with airing races over a streaming platform. Once that agreement is finalized, the sanctioning body will then turn its attention to securing a deal with the team owners, who have been asking for a larger slice of the broadcast rights pie. The ownership charter agreement expires simultaneous with the current broadcast rights so expect these negotiations to heat up over the summer as well.
Street racing and schedule implications
Much like the inaugural Clash at the Los Angeles Coliseum in 2022, NASCAR could ignite a literal world of scheduling possibilities if the street course event in Downtown Chicago next month goes well.
NASCAR has ambitions of racing internationally and in untapped markets domestically so having both stadium short track and downtown street course blueprints at their disposal could create numerous options over the next decade. NASCAR tends to make schedule announcements in August but could push that back a little deeper into the summer to see what comes out of the Clash, Downtown Chicago and the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro.
The regular season still matters
It’s easy come this point of the schedule to overlook the final 10 races of the regular season in advance of the playoffs but there is still much to be decided even amongst those who have already won their way into the round of 16.
Right now, Martin Truex Jr. leads the standings by 13 points over William Byron and it’s 24 points back to Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain and Kevin Harvick. Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell are 29 and 32 points back. Remember than the top-10 in regular season points each get bonus points that carry over from round-to-round in the playoffs. Winning the regular season is good for 15 additional points, second place is good for 10, third gets seven down to one point for a 10th place regular season finish.
Elimination in the playoffs frequently comes down to single digit points in September and October so these final 10 races are so very consequential even if a team is already locked-into the tournament.
Don’t forget Xfinity and Trucks
The Cup Series rightfully claims all the headlines, but both the Xfinity Series and Craftsman Trucks Series are still putting on some of the best shows of the weekend with compelling rosters and an equally fascinating playoff outlook. The races are shorter, more action-packed, and feature many of the future stars of the sport doing battle with ageless veterans.
The Cup Series is still trying to figure out its new car but Xfinity and Trucks are both on a timeless platform that delivers each week regardless of track type. Don’t sleep on these races.
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.