Who will win the Shriners Children’s 500? The fourth race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived with the best drivers in the sport hitting the trace at Pheonix Raceway in Arizona. As part of our weekly NASCAR predictions, we’re previewing Sunday’s race.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for the Shriners Children’s 500 in Phoenix.
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Shriner’s 500 odds
Here are the current odds for the Shriners Children’s 500 winner, via BetMGM, for the top 15 drivers.
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NASCAR odds for Phoenix — Winner
- Kyle Larson – +600
- Ryan Blaney – +700
- William Byron – +750
- Ross Chastain – +800
- Denny Hamlin – +900
- Christopher Bell – +1000
- Martin Truex Jr. – +1100
- Kyle Busch – +1300
- Joey Logano – +1300
- Tyler Reddick – +1400
- Chase Elliott – +1800
- Ty Gibbs – +2000
- Chase Briscoe – +2200
- Brad Keselowski – +2200
- Chris Buescher – +2200
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Shriners Children’s 500 odds
Top 3
- Kyle Larson – +190
- Ryan Blaney – +200
- William Byron – +225
- Ross Chastain – +240
- Denny Hamlin – +275
- Christopher Bell – +300
- Martin Truex Jr – +325
- Joey Logano – +375
- Kyle Busch – +400
- Ty Gibbs – +500
- Tyler Reddick – +525
- Chase Elliott – +550
- Brad Keselowski – +600
- Chris Buescher – +600
Top 5
- Kyle Larson – +120
- Ryan Blaney – +130
- William Byron – +140
- Ross Chastain – +155
- Denny Hamlin – +160
- Christopher Bell – +170
- Martin Truex Jr – +175
- Kyle Busch – +190
- Joey Logano – +190
- Tyler Reddick – +225
- Chase Elliott – +250
- Ty Gibbs – +250
- Chase Briscoe – +280
- Brad Keselowski – +280
Top 10
- Kyle Larson – -225
- Ryan Blaney – -210
- William Byron – -200
- Ross Chastain – -185
- Denny Hamlin – -175
- Christopher Bell – -175
- Martin Truex Jr – -155
- Kyle Busch – -150
- Joey Logano – -135
- Tyler Reddick – -125
- Ty Gibbs – -115
- Chase Elliott – -115
- Brad Keselowski – -105
- Chris Buescher – -105
NASCAR predictions: Shriners Children’s 500 preview
Before diving into our predictions for Sunday’s race, we also have to hold ourselves accountable. We did well in our Pennzoil 400 predictions last week, correctly predicting the winner, a bad race for Bubba Wallace and more.
Bubba Wallace snags a top-12 finish
Las Vegas was a disaster for Bubba Wallace. He stayed in the top 10 early in the race, but his day was undone by a stuck left front lug nut that took him out of contention. When he started rallying back, he then fell multiple laps down after too many pit crew members went over the wall early. Yet, he maintained his composure and that improved maturity and poise has been on display throughout the 2024 season. Plus, Wallace had one of the 10 fastest cars at the Pennzoil 400 when things weren’t erupting into chaos. We won’t go as far as making the top 10, but we feel good about Wallace getting some points back with a top-12 finish.
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Martin Truex Jr. snags first top-5 spot of the season
The 2024 season got off to a bit of a rough start for Martin Truex Jr. In the season opener at Daytona, he started in the 27th position and spent all day fighting back just to place 14th. A week later, Truex Jr. started and finished 12th. Consistency seems to be his thing as of late, as he started and finished 12th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as well.
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Keep in mind that Truex has the third-highest rating (112.6) in Las Vegas and he ended the day with the second-best average running position (5.3). Now he arrives at Phoenix, where he last placed second in November. We’re buying into the upward trajectory and believe Truex Jr. will deliver a top-5 finish on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick doesn’t crack top 10
Historically, Tyler Reddick hasn’t fared particularly well in Phoenix as he’s without a top-20 finish since 2020. To make matters worse, he has started sixth or better in three of his last five short-track races, each time he finished outside the top 10. Finally, despite the second-place finish in Las Vegas, Reddick’s pit stops had several issues, including the 13th-fastest time changing four tires. None of this bodes well for Phoenix.
Kyle Larson snags consecutive wins
After an up-and-down start to the season, Kyle Larson is back. He boasted the fastest car in Las Vegas, a track where he historically dominates, vaulting his way up the points standings. He also loves racing on the West Coast, having recorded five top-10 finishes with Hendrick Motorsports, including top-5 results in both trips to Phoenix Raceway in 2023. Pair that with Larson averaging the second-best start position in Phoenix and his background on short tracks, we’ll predict he records his second consecutive win.
