The first two races of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season are in the rearview mirror, with all eyes now shifting to Las Vegas Motorspeedway and the Pennzoil 400. As NASCAR returns to Las Vegas, it’s time for some bold predictions for the Penzzoil 400 on Sunday.
It’s already been an interesting NASCAR season with plenty of surprises. In the Daytona 500, crashes and a controversial finish served as some of the biggest headlines. Fortunately, Atlanta delivered an all-time classic in the Ambetter Health 400 as Daniel Suáre, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch had a legendary finish.
- Penzzoil 400 start time: 3:30 PM ET
Related: NASCAR standings before Penzoil 400
Let’s dive into our predictions for the Pennzoil 400.
Ross Chastain snags a top-3 finish
It hasn’t been the best start to the season for Chastain, who has just one top-10 finish so far. He’s also been the subject of recent criticism from a fellow driver, with Denny Hamlin blaming Chastain for spinning Chase Elliott in Atlanta. What really hurt him in the Ambetter Health 400, though, was a speeding penalty on lap 38 during a green-flag pit spot that dropped him from 11th into the 30s. However, he battled back to place seventh.
Related: NASCAR schedule
Now, Chastain returns to familiar territory in a city that has brought him a lot of success. With Trackhouse Racing in the No. 1 car, Chastain has delivered top-five finishes in three of his last four races with a 12th-place finish on March 4, 2023, being his worst placement during that run. With the run he showed at the end in Atlanta paired with his history at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, we’ve got confidence Chastain can deliver another top-three finish.
Bubba Wallace starts a dry spell in Las Vegas
Maturity and composure were two of the biggest areas of improvement for Bubba Wallace heading into the 2024 NASCAR season. So far, so good. The 30-year-old hasn’t necessarily had the best car at either race this season, but he’s shown tremendous growth in how he handles situations. Furthermore, a little bit of luck seemed to be on his side. In the Daytona 500, the No. 23 car didn’t get enough gas put in during the final round of green flat pit stops.
Related: Best NASCAR drivers of all time
While it caused Wallace some frustration, it helped him avoid “the big one”. In Atlanta, Wallace’s car got caught up in a crash on lap 2 that caused some damage. He overcame it, then rallied back from a penalty in the pit which put him a lap down to finish fifth.
However, progress, luck and success aren’t linear growth. Wallace has also seen multiple wrecks all around his car in both races, narrowly avoiding getting caught up in them. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Wallace has finished outside the top 20 twice and not in the top 12 in three of his last four races in Atlanta. While we’re not predicting a wreck for him in the Pennzoil 400, we’ll say he finishes outside the top 16.
Martin Truex Jr. rebounds on Sunday
It’s been a start to forget for Martin Truex Jr. He started 27th at the Daytona 500 and while he made up ground, placing 15th didn’t do himself many favors in the early NASCAR playoff race. He fared slightly better in Atlanta, earning the 12th starting position and ultimately finishing in that same spot albeit with the benefit of a few competitors getting hurt by crashes and penalties. A new month brings a fresh opportunity for Truex Jr.
While Truex Jr. is a New Jersey native, success in Nevada has made Las Vegas like a second home to him. Even back in October 2022 when he started 27th, the veteran driver rallied to place seventh. In his last seven races at Las Vegas, Truex Jr. has placed no worse than ninth. While we’re not willing to predict him to take it home on Sunday, Truex Jr’s history of dominance on tracks like these and his need for a big day give us confidence he’ll place within the top 6.
Kyle Larson wins Pennzoil 400, Chevy’s early domination continues
Safe to say Kyle Larson hasn’t enjoyed the start to his 2024 season, especially after what happened at Atlanta. Fortunately for the California native, he now gets to return to the track where he knows he can dominate. After all, Larson shines in Las Vegas like the Kansas City Chiefs.
Related: Dale Earnhardt Jr. signs new NASCAR broadcasting contract
In the Pennzoil 400 last year, Larson delivered top-two finishes in Stage 1 and Stage 2 and finished right behind William Byron with one of the fastest cars in the field. Months later, he returned for the South Point 400 and dominated, leading 133-of-267 laps to take it home. Larson is the odds-on favorite for a reason, he’s pretty much owned this track in the last three years. We’ll bet on him delivering a victory on Sunday, which also means Chevrolet will be perfect for the year.
Projecting top 5 Pennzoil 400 results
- Kyle Larson
- Ross Chastain
- Martin Truex Jr
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
