MLB Winter Meetings: Five main takeaways from Day 1 in Nashville

The MLB winter meetings are underway in Nashville and they’ve grabbed some headlines.

There’s a lot to digest, but what are the most important important or intriguing storylines that have materialized over the first days in Tennessee?

A lot can still happen, but these are the five most relevant happenings thus from the MLB winter meetings.

Aroldis Chapman incident

We start with the most important story of the day and unfortunately, the baseball element of it is minuscule.

It seemed as though Chapman was headed to the Dodgers to form the game’s best 1-2 duo with Kenley Jansen. Then, incredibly disturbing allegations of domestic violence stalled any trade talks involving the Reds’ closer.

From a weird baseball angle, there’s now concern about the health of Chapman’s hand as a result of the incident.

Takeaway: Whether it’s Ray Rice, Greg Hardy, Jose Reyes, Aroldis Chapman, or any others, these domestic violence issues are all troubling, to say the least. At its core, sports is supposed to be a form of entertainment. Yes, we all get involved in it and care way too much, but ultimately, this should be fun. This isn’t fun to read about. This isn’t fun to talk about. It’s not fun for fans to be asked to cheer for these guys. This is just a real negative on the sport’s world and just the world in general.

It’s important to note with any case that these are allegations and before anyone acts or rushes to judgment, the facts need to come out. But for a second, let’s assume they’re all true.

These sports all have their own policies on domestic violence and truthfully, if the players are good enough, we’ll see them on the field again. Personally, I’d be fine if anyone guilty of domestic violence never played again, but we have to be realistic. If the talent is there, some team will come calling.

From a pure baseball point of view, it’s still hard to see any team touching Chapman for a while. If he’s cleared, any movement will likely be taken then. If he’s not, then movement will likely take place after the MLB punishment is administered.

Now, on to actual baseball.

Jose Fernandez drama

A pair of Miami Marlins reporters — Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald and Joe Frisaro of mlb.com tweeted some pretty definitive quotes from President of Baseball Operations, Mike Hill.

Case closed, right? Things are never that simple with the Marlins, I’m afraid.

Not too long after that, we got this from ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports provided some clarity and specifics to the day’s Hernandez drama.

Takeaway: I’m curious as to which Diamondbacks players were being asked for in trade. If one of them was Paul Goldschmidt, a lineup that includes him and Giancarlo Stanton is more than a little fascinating, but I digress.

The initial reports from Spencer and Frisaro represent the attitude that the Marlins should have going forward. He’s only 24, has a career ERA of 2.40, a career WHIP of 1.014, a career strikeout per nine innings ratio of 10.5 and is under control through 2018. There’s absolutely no reason that the Marlins should be shopping this guy.

Circulating Javier Baez rumors

Thanks to Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, it appears as though the Cubs are looking for pitching, and they want to shop Javier Baez.

Presented in chronological order.

https://twitter.com/GDubCub/status/674113574814355456

https://twitter.com/GDubCub/status/674116834820554752

Baez spent most of 2015 in the minors but was called up in September, producing a .289/.325/.408 slash line in 76 at bats. After Addison Russell was injured in the playoffs, Baez was again inserted into the starting lineup, hitting a home run against the Cardinals before struggling against the Mets.

Cobb is 28 and underwent Tommy John surgery in May, so would likely be unavailable until the second half of 2015. In 498.2 career innings, Cobb has 426 strikeouts, an ERA of 3.21, with a WHIP of 1.191.

Miller is 25 and in 575.1 career innings, has 483 strikeouts, a 3.22 ERA, and a 1.236 WHIP.

Takeaway: The deal with the Rays makes more complete sense. Tampa has a surplus of starting pitching, so Cobb is more expendable. Similarly, Chicago has a surplus of young infielders, so losing Baez wouldn’t hurt as much, and Cobb would add tremendous depth to their pitching staff which includes Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and the newly signed John Lackey

From the Cubs perspective, Miller is the guy they should be going after. He’s younger than Cobb, would be able to pitch all season, and while Tommy John surgeries have been successful, pitchers recovering from it frequently struggle for about a year. Since the Cubs are definitely contenders, Miller being far less of a 2016 question mark is another big edge for him.

What I don’t understand is the Braves doing this, especially if Jorge Soler isn’t a part of the deal. They don’t have the surplus of starters that the Rays have and Miller is unquestionably the best starter on that staff. Baez could plug in to a few different infield spots to make the offense better, but the team wouldn’t be significantly improved.

If the Cubs can land Shelby Miller while keeping Jorge Soler, they should pull the trigger immediately. If not, the Cobb deal is potentially a fine fallback option.

Which NL East Team Lands Ben Zobrist?

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that Zobrist is likely down to the Mets, Nationals, and Giants but since he’d prefer to play second, the Giants — who have All-Star Joe Panik — are likely out of that mix. Morosi also reported that the decision is likely to come within 48 hours.

Zobrist, who will be 35 in May. has been a model of consistency over the last three years. From 2013-2015, he never fell out of the 10-13 home run range, always had a batting average between .272 and .276, an OBP between .354 and .359, and a slugging percentage between .395 and .450.

Takeaway: Those numbers may not look gaudy, but Zobrist is an impact player and if he’s deciding between the Mets and Nationals, the team that lands him should be considered the favorite in that division for the time being.

He’s not a young player, but his skills age well. Additionally, while he may prefer second, Zobrist’s flexibility makes him a star. If a player gets hurt, he can temporarily move to the outfield, or even shortstop. If he’s playing second but a hypothetical star second baseman becomes available via trade, he can be moved to a different spot on the field to accommodate the incoming star.

Teams like the Mets (or Giants) who play in pitcher’s parks don’t really need to worry about his numbers coming over, because Zobrist has never called a great hitter’s park home.

It’s difficult to project which team is the better fit for Zobrist. It’s doubtful that either team has a complete roster right now and both the Nats and Mets should continue staying active after Zobrist makes his decision. With that said, the Nationals are the better option, at least temporarily.

With Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup, they wouldn’t need Zobrist to put up numbers any different than he has in any of the last three years. Zobrist would replace Daniel Murphy, but they’d still be missing a lot of the power that Yoenis Cespedes provided over the season’s final two months and into the playoffs.

If the Mets bring Cespedes back or add someone like Justin Upton or Jason Heyward, we’ll revisit this. But for now, I believe he’ll end up with the Mets, but the Nationals make slightly more sense.

Padres trade chips

Through Rosenthal, we’ve learned that the Padres are a popular team in Nashville.

Thanks to mlb.com’s Corey Brock, we have an idea of who may or may not be going.

Takeaway: While not as dramatic as Fernandez with the Marlins or Miller with the Braves, the Padres shouldn’t even consider about moving Tyson Ross unless the trade is just overwhelming. He’s 29 in April, but has posted an ERA of 3.07 over the last three years, while striking out more than a hitter per inning.

Cashner is coming off of a down year, but his previous two were stellar. The fielding independent pitching stats indicate that Cashner could be a bounce-back candidate. The Padres shouldn’t be looking to give him away, but they do need help on offense. If a team can provide that, Cashner should be movable.

Shields is a bit worrisome to me, and San Diego should be actively shopping him. Despite pitching in the National League for the first time and striking out batters at a higher rate, innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP were at their worst totals since 2010. He’s also owed 21 million in each of the next three seasons.

Plenty of teams are looking for pitching help, so don’t be surprised if Shields draws a big haul in a trade.