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MLB insider reveals why Baltimore Orioles may lose Corbin Burnes in free agency to specific division

Baltimore Orioles rumors, Corbin Burnes
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles paid a premium last offseason to acquire Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, with the hope of signing him to a contract extension before he hit MLB free agency. Now that Burnes is on the open market with swirling MLB rumors regarding his future, Baltimore appears in real danger of losing him.

In February 2024, Baltimore traded prospects DL Hall and Joey Ortiz to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Burnes. The All-Star ace delivered as the ace of the Orioles rotation, while Ortiz posted a .726 OPS as a rookie with outstanding defense at third base.

  • Corbin Burnes stats (ESPN): 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 15-9 record, 181 strikeouts in 194.1 innings

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Burnes met expectations, proving essential to a club that was decimated by injuries to its rotation. However, the perennial All-Star never signed an extension with the Orioles front office and hit the open market this winter. Now he’s being heavily pursued by some of Baltimore’s biggest World Series competition along with other clubs around the league.

In a Reddit AM on Tuesday, MLB.com’s senior reporter Mark Feinsand explained why the Orioles are in jeopardy of losing Burnes in MLB free agency even with new ownership committed to increasing payroll.

Related: 3 teams pursuing Corbin Burnes, contract price revealed

“Simply put, Burnes is the top free-agent itcher out there and there is going to be a lot of competition for him. I don’t think it’s impossible for the Orioles to retain him, but he’s a California native, so if a West Coast team – Dodgers, Giants, Padres – make a big push for him, it’s entirely possible he will head back home with a huge, new contract.”

Mark Feinsand on why the Baltimore Orioles may lose Corbin Burnes
  • Corbin Burnes career stats (Baseball Reference): 3.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB, 11.0 K/9, 7.0 H/9

While that’s not the Orioles news fans want to hear, Feinsand does expect the organization to spend money this winter. If Burnes doesn’t re-sign, then it could just mean Baltimore pivots to signing someone like Max Fried to take Burnes place atop the rotation.

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While the Orioles can certainly offer a better path to winning a championship than San Francisco, the Dodgers and Padres can make just as strong of a case. Los Angeles has also demonstrated its willingness to spend big, both on contracts with a high AAV and through deferred payments clearing seven figures years from now.

Burnes, who just turned 30 years old in October, has spent the entirety of his major-league career away from the West Coast with the Brewers and Orioles. It stands to reason that if either Los Angeles or San Diego make an offer that will make him one of the highest-paid MLB players, Burnes will head home to California.

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