Heading into the Houston Astros game today for the first time in a full season since their streak of seven straight American League Championship Series appearances, the Astros don’t have 60 wins at this point in the season.
At 58-45, Houston is in the thick of the playoff hunt, currently holding onto the second wild-card spot in the MLB playoff picture. But they’re not in the familiar position of leading the AL West of either Oakland or Seattle by at least five games, either. This year they trail the Texas Rangers by two games with 59 to play. Hardly an insurmountable lead for such an accomplished team.
Houston entered this week’s series against Texas three back in the West, but after a walk-off 10-9 win on Monday night, and a 4-3 win over the Rangers on Tuesday night, the Astros were blown out by Texas, 13-5 on Wednesday.
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Before we get started, think of a Houston Astros player. Due to the number of injuries that Houston has had to overcome this season, there is a pretty good chance that the player you’re thinking of is either no longer with the team, retired or hasn’t played for much of the season. And that’s part of the mystery when it comes to this year’s Houston squad.
They’re not the same players that the baseball world has become accustomed to. Most of them weren’t on the infamous 2017 team that drew the ire of fans around the world, and yet, they’re still racking up wins left and right and still the team to beat in the American League until further notice.
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Astros getting contributions from who?
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick. Those are the top four home run hitters for the Astros this season, with Tucker at 18, Alvarez at 17, Bregman at 16, and McCormick with 13.
It may come as a shock to learn that McCormick is third on the 2023 Astros in WAR (wins above replacement) with 2.7 wins according to Baseball Reference. Would you also be shocked that he’s done that in just 61 games played? His 147 OPS+ (100 is league average) is right in line with Kyle Tucker’s production, albeit in a smaller sample size. Production like this from guys like McCormick is why the Astros keep winning games year after year.
Right behind McCormick on the Houston home run leaderboard is rookie Yainer Diaz with 11 bombs in 59 games. Diaz has been with the team all season as the club’s backup catcher/DH/occasional first baseman and wasn’t playing regularly until the beginning of June when he got 84 at-bats, hit .310, and clubbed five homers. On the season he has a 108 OPS+, which is just slightly ahead of Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto at 106. Granted it’s a smaller sample size for Diaz, but it shows the level he’s playing at as arguably just another guy in the Houston lineup.
Of course, there’s also Kyle Tucker. While he may not be an unknown (heck he was an All Star just a couple weeks ago), he goes through spurts where he really carries this club. Not only has he been consistently healthy for this team over the past four years, he also keeps finding ways to improve.
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This year his strikeout rate sits at 13.3%, which is just outside the top-ten lowest rates in baseball. Of the players with lower strikeouts rates, only Ronald Acuña Jr. has more home runs with 23, and only Acuña and Luis Arraez have a better wRC+ that Tucker’s 146 (100 is league average). He also put together a three-homer game in Oakland on Friday night in Houston’s 6-4 win and is 3-for-6 with three walks, a homer, and five runs scored in two games this week against the first-place Rangers.
The injuries
The Astros keep getting contributions from lesser-known players, and without them who knows where this club would be? The team will be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the remainder of the season, and José Urquidy hasn’t pitched since the end of April, though he is currently making rehab appearances. Urquidy tossed four innings last night in Double-A, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out four. Per Statcast he threw 53 pitches in that start.
Houston’s starting staff, despite the injuries, still ranks third in baseball in ERA with a cumulative 3.79, behind just Tampa Bay (3.64) and Minnesota (3.78). Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Hunter Brown were more or less expected to be pretty solid this season, but J.P. France (2.87 ERA in 14 starts) and Brandon Bielak (3.56 ERA in 12 starts) have really solidified that fearsome five. Combined with their top-five bullpen ERA, the Astros rank third in team ERA at 3.75.
Altuve and Alvarez returned to the lineup on Wednesday. The 33-year-old Altuve has played in just 33 games this season, while Alvarez has played in just 58 of Houston’s 103 games.
There’s also 36-year-old Michael Brantley, who hasn’t played a game all season after offseason shoulder surgery. Brantley has been “ramping up his cage work” while the Astros were out on the road.
2020 history lesson
The Covid season was weird for a variety of reasons. Games started in July, there was only 60 of them, the ghost runner was introduced, and it was the first time we saw to the expanded playoff format.
During the Astros run of seven-straight seasons to the ALCS, they have failed to win the AL West just once, and it was in that weird 2020 season. The Oakland Athletics were at the height of their competitive cycle and took the division by seven games. Thanks to the expanded playoffs, the Astros (29-31) were able to sneak into the postseason as the runner-up in the division, facing the Minnesota Twins in the first round of the playoffs.
After dispatching the Twins in two games, it was on to Los Angeles to face the A’s, who had won the regular season series 7-3. Needless to say, the Astros won that series three games to one, and it never felt terribly competitive. Houston had an answer for anything Oakland did offensively, and they just ate the A’s bullpen for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
Houston made it to the ALCS again that season, losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven.
While that team still had George Springer, Carlos Correa, a healthy Brantley and McCullers, and Zack Greinke, this year’s club gives off those same vibes. The record may not be sterling and they may not be firing on all cylinders just yet, but it’s hard to bet against the Astros until someone takes them out in the ALDS.