Last season the Chicago Cubs finished in second place in the NL East and finished just one game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild-card berth. According to their Pythagorean record, they should have finished the year at 90-72 instead of where they did at 83-79. So when Brewers manager Craig Counsell hit the free agent market, the Cubs swopped him up and made him the highest-paid person to hold his position.
That seemed to signal an off-season of spending on the horizon, but it turns out that the addition of Counsell was arguably the team’s biggest move this winter. They’ve added some pieces, which we’ll talk about here in a moment, but overall the Cubs seemed to just run it back, only with a couple of new faces that are filling holes that were left on the roster.
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This wasn’t an offseason of spending to join the fray of being a legitimate contender. Instead, the Cubs seemed to act like they know they play in the NL Central, which means that don’t have to try as hard to make the postseason. They’ll be in contention for the division crown, but with the Giants and Mets making moves in recent days, the Cubs may not be able to fall back on landing a wild-card spot if they fail to take home the Central crown.
Cubs additions and subtractions
Heading into this winter, the Cubs had some pretty big free agents. They re-signed Cody Bellinger to a three-year, $80 million deal with opt-outs after each season. This, coming off a four WAR season that looked to be a return to form for the 28-year-old. If he performs well in 2024, he can hit the market again next winter. This was a move that Chicago had to make because he was the best free agent bat on the market, so if they didn’t have him on the roster again in 2024, there was no way to replace his production from last year with another free agent.
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That wasn’t the same case for Marcus Stroman, who ended up signing with the New York Yankees. Stroman was worth 2.7 WAR last season and held a 3.95 ERA (3.58 FIP) across 25 starts. The question with him was whether the Cubs may be able to make an upgrade in the rotation by bringing in someone else. They’re sure going to find out after signing Shota Imanga for four years and $53 million that includes incentives and options. Imanga is projected for a slightly better ERA (3.70 on FanGraphs) and WAR production (3.4) than they received from Stroman last year.
The only other impact move that Chicago made was bringing in former Dodgers first rounder (31st overall in 2019 Draft), Michael Busch. The 26-year-old seems to be destined for first base and has a great combination of power and approach at the dish. He knocked 27 home runs in Triple-A while walking 13.9% of the time and strikeout out at an 18.8% clip. He got a little time in Los Angeles last season, batting .167 with a ten percent walk rate and a 33.3% strikeout rate in 81 plate appearances. He was also putting the ball on the ground at a high clip, 58.7%, and had a launch angle of just 4.7 degrees.
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The combination of Imanga and Busch could have a big impact on how the Cubs season ends up going. Both are unproven at the big-league level, yet they each have track records to suggest that they could be impact players on this roster.
Overall, the Cubs added three WAR over last year’s club, which isn’t the worst offseason, but the Pirates added 5.2 WAR, the Cardinals brought in some nice additions that led to 7.4 WAR, and the Reds are up 7.1 WAR.
Cubs 2024 outlook
The Cubs could win the division and make a dent in the postseason this year, or they could miss the playoffs entirely. Both options are very much in play. According to FanGraphs, the Central is up for grabs. Chicago has a 25.9% chance of winning the division, slightly worse than they odds they’re giving to St. Louis at 34.6%, and slightly better than the Brewers (17.8) and Reds (13.1). They have Chicago finishing at 82-80, a game back of the Cardinals. Baseball Prospectus seems things fairly similarly.
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One of the big questions facing this team heading into 2024 is what kind of production will they get out of Bellinger? Last year he was one of the top 15 hitters in baseball according to wRC+, finishing with a 134 (100 is league average). There has been a lot of talk all winter about folks being wary about how he’ll do moving forward due to the underlying metrics. He didn’t hit the ball exceptionally hard, ranking in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, and he also ranked in the 22nd percentile in average exit velocity, and the 27th percentile in barrel rate. Those all led to him having an expected batting average of .268, which is nearlu 40 points lower than what he actually hit at .307.
If he’s somewhere in between those two versions, then the Cubs will likely be just fine. But if the bottom falls out from under him and those underlying stats end up meaning a whole lot in 2024, then all of a sudden the team would be without one of their biggest producers at the dish last season.
The other big question for this year will be if the Cubs made the right call by going with Imanga as Stroman’s replacement. You can argue that they didn’t need to re-sign Stroman, that’s fine. But did they grab the right person to replace him? The projections seem to like his chances, giving him between a 3.50-3.70 ERA, but it’s one thing to be expected to do something, and another to go out and do it.
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The Cubs’ biggest obstacle appears to be the Cardinals this season. The teams are projected to finish within a game or two of one another, with the Cubs looking up. That said, they brought in Counsell for a reason, and that was to maximize the output of the roster every day. Since 2017, he has never underperformed his Pythagorean record and has had a couple of seasons in there with Milwaukee where he added five to eight wins. He may end up being the real difference-maker when all is said and done.
Cubs player to watch in 2024
While Imanga and Busch are the newcomers and will play a role in where the team ends up in 2024, the one guy that could have a big impact on the club is Jameson Taillon. After signing a four-year, $68 million deal with the team last winter, he struggled in the first half of 2023, posting a 6.15 ERA across 71 2/3 innings. He was dealing with a minor groin injury, and also working to hone his new sweeper in the opening months, on top of being a new face in the clubhouse.
In his final start heading into the All-Star break, Taillon shut down the Yankees offense in New York, allowing just one hit in eight scoreless innings. There were a couple of hiccups in the second half, but overall he held a 3.70 ERA in 82 2/3 innings, which is a vast improvement over his first-half numbers. On the season he ended up with a 4.84 ERA, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
While Taillon is set to begin the ’24 campaign on the IL, he’s expected back around mid-April from a back injury. The question for the 32-year-old right-hander will be which version we’ll see this season. If he’s closer to the second-half version, that would be a huge boost to the rotation, which is projected to be the 16th-best in baseball in terms of ERA with a 4.17. Taillon is projected for a 4.52 ERA, but if he throws up a 3.70 over the course of a full season, then the Cubs all of a sudden could have a top-10 rotation.
If someone doesn’t step up in the rotation, then the Cubs’ offense is also projected to be roughly middle-of-the-pack, which would make Chicago’s path to the postseason a little murky.
