The Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this offseason, beating out the Minnesota Vikings in a bidding war, to finally end years of quarterback purgatory. A few weeks later, Atlanta used the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta’s decision received overwhelming criticism from analysts, fans and many NFL executives. Cousins, freshly signed to a deal that makes him one of the highest paid NFL players, expressed his frustration over the deal and implied it’s not something his former team would’ve done.
- Kirk Cousins contract (OverTheCap): $25 million cap hit in 2024, $40 million cap hit in 2025, $57.5 million cap hit in 2026, $57.5 million cap hit in 2027
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The saga took another turn during the preseason. Days after Penix made his preseason debut, Atlanta announced it shut the rookie quarterback down. The first-round pick wouldn’t play in the final two preseason games, sparking NFL rumors of a quarterback controversy in Atlanta.
- Michael Penix preseason stats (ESPN): 9-of-16 passes completed, 56.3% completion rate, 104 passing yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 76.0 QB rating
There’s no quarterback controversy right now. Cousins will be the Falcons starting quarterback in Week 1 and will hold down the job as long as he remains healthy. However, at least one person inside the league believes a change is coming much sooner than expected.
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Speaking to Mike Sando of The Athletic, one person inside the NFL expressed their belief that Cousins will not be the Falcons starting quarterback in 2025.
“I think Cousins will not be the quarterback in Atlanta next year. Unless Atlanta wins multiple games in the playoffs, the season is a failure for Kirk, unfortunately, based on the desire to see Michael Penix.”
Anonymous NFL official on Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins
- Kirk Cousins stats (ESPN): 98.2 QB rating, 270 passing touchdowns, 81 interceptions, 669% completion rate, 39,471 passing yards, 7.6 yards per attempt in 150 career games
If Cousins isn’t the Falcons starting quarterback next season, there’s very little reason to believe he would remain on the roster. He would be carrying a $40 million cap hit as a backup, a figure that can’t be justified for a team in contention.
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However, Atlanta would have plenty of issues moving on from Cousins. As detailed by Spotrac, cutting Cousins in 2025 would carry a $65 million dead cap hit (pre-June 1) with -$25 million in cap relief. If he is designated as a post-June 1 release, there would be zero cap savings in 2025 and a $40 million dead cap that season with a $25 million dead cap in 2026.
The only viable option would be to trade Cousins, which would still leave Atlanta with a sizable dead cap charge over the next two seasons. Realistically, if there’s going to be a change with the Falcons starting quarterback barring injury, it will likely happen in 2026.