There is no stage with more significance and history than the Rose Bowl. Serving as the host for a College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines, this could be the game for the ages.
Michigan was the best team in college football during the regular season, earning the No. 1 spot in the CFP after finishing first in FPI, second in strength of resume and boasting one of the best defenses in college football. On the other side is a Crimson Tide team that came alive in the second half of the season, beating the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game to sneak into the playoff.
Related: Live Rose Bowl highlights, analysis
While there are plenty of storylines to talk about for the College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup, let’s dive into the stats to know and matchups to watch in the 2024 Rose Bowl.
Top Rose Bowl matchups, stats that will determine the winner
Michigan Wolverines’ pass rush vs Alabama’s offensive line
It all starts in the trenches. When Alabama’s offense was struggling this year and head coach Nick Saban was rotating quarterbacks, the biggest problems existed up front. Even as Milroe settled in, he lived under duress as the Crimson Tide’s offensive line was not only one of the worst in the SEC, but also one of the worst in the Power 5.
| Sacks Allowed | Pressures | Pass Blocking Efficiency | |
| Weeks 0-7 | 14 (4th most in Power 5) | 61 (22nd most) | 84.6 (58th) |
| Weeks 8-16 | 6 (42nd) | 40 (16th-best) | 88.2 (31st) |
However, this unit started to settle in as the season unfolded. Milroe still faced pressure at a fairly high rate, but the signal-caller was also responsible for some of the pressures encountered and sacks taken. With that said, added time in the pocket unlocked Milroe into a Heisman Trophy contender and one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the second half of the season. Clean pockets are rare against Michigan, though.
Related: Highest-paid college football coaches
The Wolverines had one of the best pass rushes in the nation throughout the regular season. Not only are the season-long numbers impressive, but it really came through for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter in some big games.
- Michigan Wolverines defense: 8.6% sack rate (14th in FBS), 2.5 sacks per game (35th), 91.1 PFF pass-rushing grade
In Week 11 against Penn State, Michigan recorded a 31 percent pressure rate on 29 dropbacks by the Nittany Lions. A few weeks later against Ohio State, the Wolverines’ defense recorded 6 pressures, 4 hurries and a 19.4 percent pressure rate.
Alabama’s improvement in pass protection bodes well, especially because it allowed just 4 pressures and 1 QB hit to the Georgi Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game with a 91.4 PFE. However, this is one of the Wolverines’ biggest strengths and it could prove crucial to slowing down Milroe.
Jalen Milroe and the importance of time to throw
If the Wolverines’ front gets home consistently on Milroe and creates consistent penetration through Alabama’s offensive line, Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is in business. If that pressure doesn’t get home consistently enough shower, things get interesting.
Related: Highest college football coaches buyouts
- Jalen Milroe stats vs pressure: 55.9 PFF grade (22nd), 45.8% completion rate (23rd), 10.0 yards per attempt (2nd), 5-2 TD-INT, 8.5% TD rate, 3.4% INT rate
Even if the Wolverines consistently break through Alabama’s offensive line, Milroe is outstanding at buying time with his legs. He averaged the fifth-highest scrambles (5.61) per game this season and with that extra time, big plays downfield opened up.
| QB Rating | Completion % | YPA | |
| Under 2.5 seconds to throw | 92.1 | 85.3 | 6.6 |
| Over 2.5 seconds to throw | 130.8 | 74.9 | 12.5 |
Failing to get to Milroe quickly obviously has a massive influence on his success as a passer. Michigan’s pressure rate and how often it wins its matchups at the line of scrimmage, will dictate what Milroe can do.
- Jalen Milroe stats in clean pocket: 92.5 PFF grade (4th), 71.3% completion rate (18th), 10.6 yards per attempt (2nd) 18-4 TD-INT, 9% TD rate, 1.9% INT rate
This will be the first domino to fall from the matchup between the Crimson Tide’s offensive line versus Michigan’s pass-rushing unit. Whichever side is successful will ultimately determine how effective Milroe is as a passer.
J.J. McCarthy vs Alabama’s pass defense
Early in the year, quarterback J.J. McCarthy looked like a Heisman candidate with a bonafide shot to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. After two dominant months, however, the Wolverines started taking the football out of their quarterback’s hands and he progressively worsened, reinforcing their decision to become a more run-heavy team.
Related: Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy receives intriguing NFL comparison
| NCAA QB rating | YPA | Completion Rate | Rush Yards | |
| September | 190.4 | 10.2 | 79% | 115 |
| October | 213.4 | 11.4 | 76.6% | 52 |
| November | 133.8 | 7.8 | 67% | 13 |
| December | 114.5 | 4.9 | 73.3% | -35 |
Alabama is going to dial up the pressure on McCarthy. During the regular season, the Crimson Tide posted the ninth-highest sack rate (9.65 percent) in college football, averaging 3.3 sacks per game. That’s a problem for Michigan’s offensive line, which ranked 43rd in Pass Blocking Efficiency (87.3) during the regular season with a 5.41 percent sack rate allowed.
- J.J. McCarthy vs pressure: 62.7% completion, 9.2 yards per attempt 7-3 TD-INT, 108.7 NFL QB rating
- J.J. McCarthy in clean pocket: 77.7% completion, 9.2 ypa, 12-1 TD-INT, 121.1 NFL QB rating
One interesting thing to keep an eye on will be how often Saban blitzes Michigan’s quarterback. Of McCarthy’s four interceptions this season, three came against the blitz. Harbaugh truly shouldn’t want this game to rest on McCarthy’s shoulders. If it is, he’ll need to prove he can be the quarterback we saw in the first half of the season.
The first thing Michigan is going to attempt is running the football against the Alabama Crimson Tide’s defense. While Saban’s defenses are historically stout against the run, that’s not necessarily the case this season.
- Alabama Crimson Tide run defense: 124.4 rushing yards per game allowed, 3.7 yards per carry allowed, 7.2 rushing first downs allowed per game
Michigan is fairly stout up front, but no one would mistake this unit for the best offensive line in college football. In the regular season, the Wolverines only had two offensive linemen (Zak Zinter and Drake Nugent) grade as top-35 run blockers by PFF. The rest of Michigan’s offensive line didn’t crack the top 90.
That puts the onus on running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Corum finished with the 77th-most runs of 10-plus yards (20) in the Power 5 and ranked 167th in breakaway run rate (29.1 percent).
If he can’t get anything going on the ground, Michigan might have to turn its focus to the quick passing game. Fortunately, Edwards averaged the ninth-highest yards per route run (1.73). When that happens, starting linebackers Deontae Lawson (70 percent reception rate, 318 receiving yards allowed) and Trezmen Marshall (79.2 percent reception rate, 183 YAC yards allowed) could be in trouble.
Stats for the Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide via Pro Football Focus, TeamRankings.com