Stakes are sky-high in college football conference championship games, where a loss multiplies the likelihood of missing out on the postseason destination of choice.
That’s true of nearly every Power 5 conference title game.
Even for No. 1 Georgia, with back-to-back national championships and 29 wins in a row, a defeat spikes doubt about its spot in the College Football Playoff.
And for No. 2 Michigan, losing to Iowa in Indianapolis could push the Wolverines well below the CFP semifinals line of entry at No. 4, what with Oregon at No. 5 and Texas and Alabama entering their trophy-hunting spots believing a win warrants a playoff spot.
What’s at stake for the teams kicking off the postseason on the first weekend of December? Here’s a team-by-team snapshot.
No. 1 Georgia (12-0, vs. No. 8 Alabama in SEC Championship)
Win, and Georgia is the No. 1 seed playing the perceived weakest of the final four in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. If rankings hold, that means ACC champion Florida State minus dynamic quarterback Jordan Travis. If Florida State stumbles — even in a close win — a Pac-12 team is the most likely opponent, but No. 6 Ohio State or longshot Texas, ranked seventh, could also slide into No. 4. The Seminoles are the most vulnerable team in the top four entering the weekend.
Where would Georgia land if the Bulldogs lose to Alabama?
Stacking one-loss options for the committee might be less complicated than some are asserting. By going undefeated in the SEC regular season, a close loss to the Crimson Tide keeps the Bulldogs squarely in the conversation at No. 4 and likely ahead of current No. 4 FSU because of the Travis injury.
Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Sugar Bowl
No. 2 Michigan (12-0, vs No. 16 Iowa in Big Ten Championship)
Michigan can’t lose to two-loss Iowa and expect to be anywhere near the CFP semifinals. The Hawkeyes played one ranked team all season, and lost 31-0 to Penn State. We envision a similar result, and perhaps one or two us-against-the-world references postgame.
Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Rose Bowl
No. 3 Washington (12-0, vs. No. 5 Oregon in Pac-12 Championship)
Prediction: Fiesta Bowl
No. 4 Florida State (12-0, vs. No. 14 Louisville in ACC Championship)
Before the bully brigade cries foul about a Power 5 team going undefeated and missing out on the playoff, the committee has already shared its assessment of FSU minus Travis. And it’s not sparkling.
Note the Tuesday comments from committee chair Boo Corrigan, NC State’s athletic director who should expect some interesting holiday mail from Tallahassee, on the current view of the Seminoles.
“Different team, right? Different team without Jordan Travis,” Corrigan said. “Tate Rodemaker … has done well and has kind of managed the game.”
What also hurts the view of FSU’s potential title game win? Louisville’s loss last week to Kentucky. The Wildcats finished 3-5 in the SEC and lost 51-13 to Georgia and by four touchdowns to Alabama. Can the committee stack up the Seminoles on the same footing as a one-loss Georgia team if it comes to it?
Prediction: Orange Bowl
No. 5 Oregon (11-1, vs. No. 3 Washington in Pac-12 Championship)
Pummeling Oregon State caught the attention of the committee — and they said as much — but perhaps disheartening for the Ducks was still being slotted behind a shaky, but undefeated, Florida State team. That certifies the path to the CFP semifinals involves beating Washington on Friday, and Oregon likely has no other route to getting into the final four.
As Heisman ballots trickle in with Oregon’s Bo Nix as a favorite, the Ducks have momentum despite losing the regular-season meeting with Washington.
Who wouldn’t love championship weekend kicking off with an “upset”?
Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Sugar Bowl
No. 7 Texas (11-1, vs. Oklahoma State in Big 12 Championship)
Win or lose, the ultimate destination for the Longhorns is entirely in the hands of the CFP committee. Unless upsets reign to stir chaos and realign the pecking order of the rankings, Texas likely needs multiple teams in the current top four to fall. Not only are all four undefeated, there’s a question as to whether one-loss Texas could be viewed as a better option than potential one-loss teams such as Georgia and Washington should they lose their conference championship games.
The assertion is also based on the marginal surge it could expect from beating Oklahoma State combined with the salivating praise the committee has had for the Pac-12 title game participants. There is no indication the committee would place one-loss Texas ahead of one-loss Washington given the consistently glowing reviews of the Huskies from the committee. And No. 6 Ohio State, idle after its only loss of the season at Michigan, would be back in the conversation if Georgia, Michigan and Oregon all win but Florida State doesn’t dominate Louisville.
Prediction: Cotton Bowl vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 8 Alabama (11-1, vs. Georgia in SEC Championship)
Beat Georgia, a decisive No. 1 in the mind of the CFP committee, and Alabama is likely to enter the semifinals ranked No. 2 behind Michigan.
Lose to Georgia, and head coach Nick Saban takes on the same posture he did at this time last year: Alabama is good enough to be in the final four but left the committee no choice but to leave it out.
Prediction: Fiesta Bowl
No. 14 Louisville (10-2, vs. Florida State in ACC Championship)
The sting of rivalry week lingers for the Cardinals, who at No. 10 in the rankings had a chance to set themselves up for a golden opportunity in the ACC title game against a Florida State team rediscovering an identity with a new starting quarterback. Even a side door entry to the CFP appears to be slammed shut with the imagined scenario of a win Saturday coupled with losses by Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama standing as their best possible pipedream.
Losing to Kentucky destroyed Louisville’s shot at a more glamorous bowl bid,
Prediction: Peach Bowl
No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3, vs. Texas in Big 12 Championship)
Maybe the Cowboys have a different view on the weekend proceedings, but beating Texas might not be meaningful in the big picture because of the at-large options available such as Ohio State and Notre Dame, plus potentially Oregon or Washington, Alabama and the Longhorns.
The Cowboys are still a draw, and spend holiday week preparing for the only bowl game with an edible mascot. Potential opposition includes the Fighting Irish and Auburn. We’ll toast to that.
Prediction: Pop-Tarts Bowl
No. 22 Tulane (11-1, vs. SMU in AAC Championship)
Another New Year’s Six bowl on a national stage awaits the Green Wave with a win Saturday, and getting there sets up another massive showcase game rarely available to champions of the AAC. Tulane made the most of it last season, beating Southern Cal in one of the more thrilling 2022 bowl games (46-45).
Prediction: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 24 Liberty (12-0, vs. New Mexico State in CUSA Championship)
A perfect record hasn’t piqued the interest of the CFP committee yet, and only a headline-grabbing win Friday coupled with a Tulane loss might do the job this late in the game. A Tulane loss to SMU isn’t purely good news for Liberty in the Group of Six/New Year’s Six sphere. That’s because the committee could easily place SMU — or MAC champion Toledo — ahead of Liberty in the final rankings on Sunday.
Prediction: Cure Bowl
–Field Level Media