After experiencing debilitating injuries and late-season shortcomings, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers have quickly returned to a more familiar setting.
Three years after squaring off in the Western Conference Finals in a campus bubble, the Lakers and Nuggets will do the same thing beginning on Tuesday in a high-altitude city before fans (8:30 pm ET, ESPN).
The Nuggets still might feature one of the NBA’s best big men (Nikola Jokic). The Lakers still might have a star duo (LeBron James and Anthony Davis). Everything else has changed, though, since their last playoff matchup. The Lakers then lost in the first round to Phoenix (2020-21) before missing the playoffs entirely (2021-22). Denver also fell short of championship expectations with early exits in the second round to Phoenix (2021) and in the first round to Golden State (2022). After nursing injuries in the past two years, Denver guard Jamal Murray and forward Michael Porter Jr. have both improved their health and game this season.
After also fielding injuries in the past two years, James and Davis have had cleaner bills of health in recent months. The Lakers have dramatically overhauled their roster with breaking up their championship core the following two offseasons (2020, 2021), acquiring Russell Westbrook (2021) and then dealing him before this year’s trade deadline. During that turbulence, the Lakers also changed head coaches (fired Vogel and hired Darvin Ham last summer).
And oh yeah, the pandemic has since relatively subsided and fans can finally attend games. All of which suggests this Lakers-Nuggets should feature different elements than when the Lakers dispatched Denver in five games in the bubble. Below are five things to watch in the series.
How will LeBron James, Anthony Davis handle another compressed series?
The Lakers’ stars should feel relieved they eliminated the Golden State Warriors in six games in the second round. Not only did that prevent the Lakers from becoming vulnerable of the Warriors’ Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and/or Draymond Green having break-out performances in a Game 7 before a rowdy home crowd. The Lakers, most notably James and Davis, bought extra time to heal their bodies.
After playing every other day in the second round, the Lakers did not practice on Saturday and Sunday. They then flew on Sunday afternoon so they could practice in Denver on Monday presumably to adjust ahead of time to the city’s altitude. After that brief recharge, can James and Davis further withstand the additional attrition? Just like in their second-round series, the Lakers will play every other day. Unlike in the second round, the Lakers will have longer flights while crossing different time zones.
Will that become too much for the 38-year-old James to handle in his 20th season? Will Davis’ extensive injury history emerge once again? The Lakers have praised James and Davis for staying diligent with their recovery and training methods. Though they have shown varying signs of fatigue throughout the playoffs, James and Davis have mostly been dominant this postseason. While James has adjusted his role as a scorer, facilitator and grinder, Davis has become the NBA’s best defender and a more consistent scorer in the playoffs. Nonetheless, it won’t be easy for the Lakers’ stars to handle the daily grind.
Will Nikola Jokic still dominate Western Conference finals?
It’s scary to see how Jokic has improved since last facing the Lakers in the postseason. He has collected two regular-season MVP awards. He has become seemingly unstoppable as both a scorer and passer in the post and beyond the perimeter. And after missing out on a third consecutive MVP award, Jokic has improved his production in this year’s playoffs.
In the Nuggets’ six-game series against the Phoenix Suns, Jokic averaged a triple double with post-season career highs in points (34.5), rebounds (13.2) and assists (10.3). While some of those numbers partly reflect the Suns’ lack of depth and Deandre Ayton having no answer inside, Jokic deserves most of the credit. He has become that dominant.
Do the Lakers have any answers? The Lakers had some success against Jokic in the bubble, but that’s because they had multiple bodies to throw at him. They mixed between matching Jokic up with Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee, an approach that wore out Jokic and freed up Davis’ workload. The Lakers have become an elite team defensively this season, mostly thanks to Davis’ improved health and consistency. Though Davis is up to the task, he could become vulnerable both with his workload and foul trouble. Expect the Lakers also to lean on Jarred Vanderbilt, an effective rebounder and interior defender. But it won’t be easy to slow down Jokic. Many have tried and failed.
Who will be the series’ biggest X factor?
Assuming health does not become an issue for any player, James, Davis and Jokic inevitably will play well. Both teams will try to wear out the opposing team’s star player and at least force them to play inefficiently. No matter. James, Davis and Jokic still will mostly dictate the terms. That leads to an interesting question: which player between the Lakers and Nuggets will have the most influence on the series?
Will it be Murray, who is fully healed from his ACL injury and has played as effectively as he has in the bubble? Or will it be Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell, who has ensured the Lakers run a smoother offense than Westbrook could? Will it be Porter, who has become healthier and more consistent than earlier in his career? Or will it be Lakers guard Austin Reaves, who has morphed into the team’s do-it-all role player?
Will it be Gordon, who nearly became an All-Star with dependable interior defense and hustle plays? Or will it be any of the Lakers’ wild-cards, including Vanderbilt, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV or Rui Hachimura? Will it be Nuggets coach Michael Malone, who has become one of the NBA’s best coaches? Or will it be Lakers coach Darvin Ham, who has grown dramatically during his first season?
There are so many possibilities that could tilt the scale in either direction.
Will Denver Nuggets’ continuity make a difference?
Following the trade deadline, the Lakers cemented the league’s third-best record (18-9) and second-best defensive rating (110.8). That’s because the Lakers finally addressed their various roster holes with acquiring a proven playmaker (Russell), shooter (Malik Beasley), rebounder (Vanderbilt), rim protector (Mo Bamba) and wing player (Hachimura). Russell conceded recently he didn’t anticipate the Lakers’ playoff success because of the lack of familiarity with each other. The Lakers overcame that obstacle because of their talent, team-oriented approach and quick learning comprehension.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have advanced to the second round for the fourth time in the last five seasons partly because of their continuity. They have the same head coach. They have the same dominant center. They have the same point guard (Murray). They have the same young forward (Porter). Though the Nuggets have upgraded their supporting cast in recent seasons, they have had substantially more time to sharpen their depth than the Lakers have had.
How will home-court records influence the series?
Here are the most important variables in a playoff series in exactly this order: the team’s health, star talent, depth and coaching. Home-court advantage rests a distant fifth among variables that affect a playoff series. This could become a possible wrinkle, though, considering the Lakers and Nuggets are so evenly matched.
Both the Nuggets and Lakers have won all six of their home playoff games so far. Denver may have benefitted from beginning a series at home, while the visitors have struggled with adjusting to the city’s high altitude. The Lakers also benefitted from hosting playoff games in front of fans and notable celebrities for the first time in 10 years.
Though the Lakers have stolen Game 1s on the road against Memphis and Golden State, that might be a more difficult task against Denver. Meanwhile, the Nuggets won one out of two games on the road in Minnesota before losing both road games in Phoenix. Both teams likely will need to win on the road, but it could become costly if either team fails to its homecourt.
Mark Medina is an NBA Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.