Bye weeks arrive in the NFL this week with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers out of the action in Week 5.
Even with an abridged slate of games, you can find ample value on the board using a consistent approach to select player props.
These props can be viewed as a derivative of how they expect a game to unfold, and it’s important to note that we can rely a bit more on the data after four weeks of games.
With that strategy in mind, here are our top five player props in Week 5:
–Bills QB Josh Allen under 5.5 rushing attempts (+112 at FanDuel)
There’s no question the Bills’ running game is even more potent with Allen as a threat. Last season, the Bills ranked 17th in rushing attempts (26.4), but this year they rank seventh with 29.8 per game.
And while the Bills are calling more running plays, we’re seeing them utilize their running backs much more than in recent memory. James Cook, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are all averaging at least 4.2 yards per carry.
Through four games, the most rushing attempts for Allen was six, which was in Week 1 against the Jets. He had at least eight rushing attempts in three of his first four games last season.
Given how the Bills put this roster together, it wouldn’t surprise me if they are trying to lessen the burden of Allen having to make plays with his legs to win ballgames.
It’s worth noting that the addition of rookie Dalton Kincaid at the tight end position gives Allen another weapon in short-yardage situations.
–Cardinals RB James Conner under 13.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The key to this prop is the number of targets Conner is getting out of the backfield. He’s had the same number of targets over the past three games (five) as in Week 1.
There’s still some talent on this Cardinals’ roster, even with starting quarterback Kyler Murray sidelined while recovering from an ACL injury.
Marquise Brown leads the receiving corps with 239 yards on 21 receptions, but Stanford rookie Michael Wilson has 237 yards on 14 catches.
Joshua Dobbs has done a decent job leading this offense. Murray didn’t always complete his passing-game progressions and looked to dump the ball out to Conner under their former head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Jonathan Gannon replaced Kingsbury, and he came from an Eagles team that’s not known for their running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. Thus, it shouldn’t be surprising that Conner’s targets are significantly down this season compared to last year.
Things won’t get any easier against a Bengals defense that’s one of nine teams to keep running backs under 100 receiving yards through four games this season.
–Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
We’ll stay with the Bengals-Cardinals game because I think there’s some implied correlation here with Conner’s receiving prop staying under and Dobbs going over his rushing yards.
He moves more like a running back and Dobbs isn’t hiding from contact if he has to tuck the ball and run. As a result, his first instinct might be to run the ball instead of dumping it off to Conner if he feels pressure.
In each of his past three games, Dobbs rushed for at least 40 yards. He’ll be up against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the fourth most rushing yards (117) to opposing quarterbacks this season.
I like Dobbs to go over this rushing prop with plenty of room to spare.
–Texans WR Tank Dell over 41.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Texans look like they struck gold with quarterback C.J. Stroud, and they’re also getting production out of Dell, a third-round pick in 2023. Through four games, Dell has 267 receiving yards on 16 catches while scoring two touchdowns.
However, the Houston product had just one catch on three targets for 16 yards last week. The Texans did manage to win the game in blowout fashion against the Steelers 30-6.
Nonetheless, Dell probably would still be disappointed to have just one reception in the game, as I’ve got a feeling he’s been in Stroud’s ear all week to get him the ball.
Week 1 was the last time Dell had fewer than five targets or receptions, and in his next game, he finished with 72 yards on 10 targets and seven catches.
If you look at Dell’s median for receiving yards, he’s at 53, which gives us some value here, with the over currently at 41.5.
–Dalton Schultz under 27.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s hope that an increase in production for Dell results in a decrease for Schultz. The Texans’ tight end is coming off his best game of the season, with three catches for 42 yards and a touchdown.
However, he’s yet to put together back-to-back quality performances. Thus, this feels like the perfect time to fade Schultz when he’s coming off a decent game.
After just four receiving yards in the season opener, Schultz finished with 34 in Week 2. But he managed just nine receiving yards on three targets the following week.
The Texans have three receivers with at least 190 yards. By comparison, the Falcons don’t have any with more than 126 yards through four games. Stroud will need to keep his receivers happy, and I think it’ll come at the expense of Schultz in Week 5.
–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media