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Top storyline for each NFL conference championship game

Courtesy of David Butler II, USA Today Sports

This weekend’s conference championship games might be the most evenly-matched we have seen around the NFL over the past several years.

The Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are just field goal favorites — a clear indication that we can expect two extremely close games.

The AFC Championship game will feature two old dogs that have been going at it a while. In what could be the last head-to-head game between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who will come out on top?

The NFC Championship game is quite different. It will present us with two teams that are seemingly on the rise — two teams that should be in championship contention for the foreseeable future.

Here is your top storyline for each conference championship game this upcoming Sunday.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: Brady vs Manning, Part 17

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It’s pretty crazy that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning only played in the same division for one season. Despite this, Sunday’s outing will represent the 17th time the two have gone up against one another.

A combination of consistent first-place finishes and near-annual Super Bowl contention has led to this.

Brady and Manning will now face one another for the right to hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday afternoon. It will represent the fourth time the two have played with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.

Interestingly, Manning has won two of the first three meetings under these circumstances.

The backstories for this specific matchup are much different than we have seen in the past.

Making his first start since Week 10, Manning “led” Denver past the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round last week. He completed 21-of-37 passes for 222 yards without a touchdown or an interception.

It was the seventh time in his past 14 starts that Manning failed to throw a touchdown.

To put this into perspective, Brady has failed to throw a touchdown seven times in his past 107 games.

As it relates to last week’s action, Brady completed 28-of-42 passes for 302 yards with two touchdowns and zero picks in a 27-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

While individual statistics can tell us a story here, football is a team game. Brady might be the primary reason New England is once again playing for a shot at the Super Bowl. For Manning, the situation is vastly different.

He’s just here to act as a game manager with the Broncos showing themselves to be better than the Patriots in nearly every other major category.

Denver finished the 2015 regular season fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, third against the run, first against the pass and No. 1 overall in total yards allowed.

New England’s defense may have ranked in the top-10 in scoring, rushing yards allowed and total yards allowed. It did, however, rank in the middle of the pack against the pass.

This gives Broncos fans some hope that Manning can overcome recent issues with moving the ball down the field through the air.

These are real issues defined by the fact that Manning has put up 13 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions in his past 15 starts.

If Manning is unable to consistently move the ball through the air, New England will be able to stack the box against a rushing attack that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL during the regular year.

Remember, Denver averaged just 77 rushing yards in Manning’s 10 regular season starts compared to 157 in the six games that Brock Osweiler started.

For the Patriots, it’s also going to be about balance.

As good as Brady has been through the years, it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to have success against the Broncos’ No. 1 ranked pass defense without some type of a game.

Patriots running backs combined for just 21 yards on seven attempts against Kansas City last week. Needless to say, this isn’t going to get it done against Denver.

Is Brady that much better than Manning right now that he can overcome other obstacles to take out his counterpart in a game the Patriots will be relying on him a great deal?

That’s likely the biggest question heading into what should be an interesting game.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: The defenses

We can talk about Carson Palmer and Cam Newton until we are blue in the face. They are among the top-three MVP candidates from the regular season.

We can also take a look at how each coach has worked so well to get his respective team to the brink of a conference title.

While those would both be tremendous stories, neither is really going to have a tremendous impact on the game itself.

Both quarterbacks should play at relatively high levels, and both coaches have proven that they can do what’s needed to call a good game.

Instead, the winner of this game will be decided by which defense plays better.

We are talking about two teams that boasted top-seven scoring defenses, Carolina coming in sixth with the Cardinals finishing seventh overall.

Carolina finished just outside the top 10 in pass defense, but did allow the lowest opposing quarterback rating during the regular season.

As it relates to the Cardinals defense, their strength was against the run. They allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL and a 3.9 yards per carry average.

These are the matchups within the broader game itself.

Can Jonathan Stewart repeat the performance we saw from him last week? He put up 106 yards and two scores against a Seattle Seahawks defense that yielded the fewest rushing yards in the NFL during the regular year.

If not, that will put Cam Newton in what might be an unsustainable situation against a Cardinals defense that picked off 19 passes during the regular season.

That will also force Newton into targeting his “top receiver” in the form of Ted Ginn against one of the few elite corners in the NFL, Patrick Peterson.

Matt Kartozian, USA Today Images

On the flip side, Carolina’s defense is predicated on coverage. From the likes of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis at linebacker to Josh Norman in the secondary, this is a unit that rivals any in the NFL.

We saw Palmer struggle with decision making last week against Green Bay. Not only did he throw two interceptions, he was lucky not to compile a couple more in the process.

In fact, an errant decision in the fourth quarter could have very well led to a pick-six by Packers corner Sam Shields. Instead, that pass fell harmlessly to the ground.

Taking on a much better secondary on Sunday, Palmer can’t afford to make these types of mistakes. Norman and Co. will surely make him pay.

Check out Vincent’s other work on eDraft.com and follow him on Twitter. His work can also be seen on MSN, Fox Sports and Forbes.

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