7. Augusta weather
If the weather is good at Augusta, then the list of true contenders shrinks. Guys like Dustin Johnson and Jason Day can attack every par-five on the course, oftentimes with a low iron on their second shot. When that happens, it’s hard for the other guys to keep up.
But the weather has been something of an equalizer in the past, most notably with Zach Johnson’s victory 10 years ago. Augusta was cold that week. While that hurt Johnson’s distance, it didn’t bother his overall game plan much as it did for the longer hitters.
Chances are, he was going to lay up on most par-fives anyway. When the weather is bad, the longer hitters can still generally reach the par-fives, but they have to do so with longer clubs.
More importantly, a cold weather tournament will place an importance on accurate drives, which is where Tiger Woods got into trouble in his 2007 battle with Johnson.
So, what does this week have to offer? Due in no small part to a tornado watch, Monday’s practice rounds were halted.
There's a tornado watch at Augusta National and now I'm furiously researching to find which players have the best records in tornadoes.
— Jason Sobel (@JasonSobelTAN) April 3, 2017
Still, as of Monday afternoon, the rest of the week looks okay.
If that holds, the shorter hitters better have excellent short games and putters this week. Otherwise, we’ll be seeing nothing but bombers battling it out on Sunday afternoon.