Despite stuffing the stat sheet with shots, rebounds and blocks nearly every time he steps on the court, Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren hardly sounded impressed with his resume.
“I have a lot of areas to improve on,” Holmgren said this week. “I have to be better on the offensive end. I have to continue to be aggressive and continue to figure out where I can insert myself.”
Even if Holmgren respectfully believes he needs to develop more, fans and reporters don’t need to be as modest. He already appears to be the early favorite to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award.
The needed caveats: After missing the entire 2022-23 season with a right foot injury, Holmgren will have to avoid a major ailment. A certain generational talent named Victor Wembanyama still has time to offer rebuttals. And the NBA has a robust rookie class filled with wild-card candidates (Miami’s Jaime Jacquez Jr., Charlotte’s Brandon Miller, Golden State’s Brandin Podziemski).
The early signs, however, point toward Holmgren winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award. Below are five reasons why that will likely happen.
Chet Holmgren is playing on a winning team
The Thunder (28-13, second in Western Conference) appear to have a legitimate shot at actually contending for an NBA title. The Spurs (7-33, last in West) appear to have a legitimate shot at landing the right ping-pong ball combinations in the NBA Draft lottery.
Wembanyama shouldn’t exactly be penalized for playing on a losing team. What do you expect when the Spurs have mostly a young roster? To Wembanyama’s credit, he also has produced both consistently and efficiently despite lacking enough help to relieve him from double teams and enough spacing to create more open shots.
Nonetheless, Chet Holmgren should be rewarded for making a significant impact on a winning team. He’s not just fitting in with a group that already boasts an MVP candidate (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), a productive wing player (Jalen Williams) and positional versatility everywhere else. Holmgren represents one of the reasons why the Thunder have climbed toward the top of the Western Conference.
In fairness, most NBA lottery picks don’t play on a winning franchise since they were drafted on a team that had high lottery odds that stemmed from a poor record the previous season. Nonetheless, most Rookie of the Year award winners bring immediate improvement in total wins gained compared to the previous season.
Chet Holmgren has stayed available
After missing all of last season while rehabbing his right foot, Chet Holmgren has appeared in all 41 games. After spraining his right ankle last month when he stepped on a ball boy during pre-game warmups, Wembanyama has faced restrictions both with playing in back-to-backs and with his minutes overall.
No one can fully control injuries. Wembanyama also doesn’t like the Spurs’ overly cautious approach. But as former NFL coach Bill Parcells famously said, “availability is the best ability.”
This variable can certainly change at any point this season. Nonetheless, Holmgren has fully healed from his right foot injury and doesn’t appear overwhelmed with the league’s physicality despite a listed 7-foor-1, 195-pound frame.
Chet Holmgren has become an efficient, versatile scorer
Before Oklahoma City’s 134-129 win over the Utah Jazz on Thursday, Chet Holmgren (17.4) ranked second in his rookie class behind Wembanyama (19.8) in points per game.
Just like Wembanyama, Holmgren has scored in a variety of ways his finishes, postups and 3s. Just like Wembanyama, Holmgren does not shy away from opposing players’ physicality. Just like Wembanyama, Holmgren can absorb that contact because of his improved strength and fundamentals skills.
Yet, Holmgren has played that way while shooting more efficiently than Wembanyama from the field (54.2%, 46.1%) and from 3-point range (38.5%, 29.3%). Holmgren shot under 50% in only 10 out of 41 games, while Wembanyama went under 50% in 21 out of 35 games. Holmgren also became the first player in NBA history to average “50-40-90” shooting splits while scoring at least 100 points through his first seven career NBA games.
“He’s done a great job,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said of Holmgren. “The whole team has. I think most of our players have been able to be pretty efficient and impactful inside of their games. And I think it’s a testament to how they play together, how they compete together. He’s certainly involved in that.”
Chet Holmgren has become a reliable defender
The Thunder rookie didn’t exactly show his defensive credentials this week against the Lakers.
Lakers star Anthony Davis threw down a powerful dunk over Chet Holmgren in the third quarter. Davis also drew Holmgren into two early fouls. Nonetheless, Holmgren has proven himself a capable defender by using his length and fundamentals to his advantage.
“Each time we play the Lakers, I’m feeling more comfortable with guarding what they’re trying to do within their sets and also understanding what AD does as a player and what he’s trying to get to,” Holmgren said. “I feel like in a lot of the 1-on-1 situations, I held my ground. He’s a good player. So he’s still going to make an impact on the game, and figure out how to make winning plays.”
So has Holmgren. He ranks second in blocks (2.5) behind Wembanyama (3.1). He also trails Wembanyama in defensive rebounds (8.0, 5.8). With a superior supporting cast, however, Holmgren’s defensive presence has impacted winning much more. The Thunder rank second in defensive field-goal percentage (44.7%) ahead of the 23rd-ranked Spurs (48.5%).
Those numbers partly explain why Holmgren has not fared as high in blocks and rebounds. He doesn’t have as many opportunities for those plays because he and his teammates defended well earlier in the possession.
Chet Holmgren had more time to become familiar with NBA game
Holmgren understandably became antsy last season during both his rehab and when he sat on the bench.
“He was just crazy manic,” Daigneault said. “He’s just so used to hooping. He sleeps in sneakers, and he’s done a great job now of channeling that inside the team.”
That has resulted in Holmgren releasing pent-up energy in positive ways. As Daigneault said, “I love the plays he sticks his nose in; that’s my favorite thing about him.” Another thing the Thunder like about Holmgren? He had a whole year to become more familiar with the NBA game with watching games up close, dissecting film and talking with coaches and teammates.
That background has enabled Holmgren to play without showing a significant learning curve. That also highlights Holmgren’s quick learning comprehension, which suggests he will improve substantially throughout the 2023-24 season.
“He’s a bottomless pit when it comes to learning the game,” Daigneault said. “He’s got a long way to go with technique and fundamentals, and he’s just seeing the pictures for the first time. So he’s just scraping the surface in some of those areas. Some of them are invisible, but he’s done a great job so far of learning from every experience, growing through the season and being the best player you can be on a given night and just stacking that up.”
All of which might stack up toward a Rookie of the Year trophy.
Mark Medina is an NBA insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.