Thinking back to Christmas day, when the Kansas City Chiefs reached their nadir in an embarrassing 20-14 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, any thought that the Chiefs would be playing in Super Bowl LVIII seemed like nothing more than a fantasy.
The defending champion Chiefs were in a death spiral, losing for the fifth time in eight games. The Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns — one off an Isiah Pacheco fumble and the other on a pick-six — they sacked quarterback Patrick Mahomes four times, and they made Mahomes and the Kansas City offense look lost and inept.
Yet seven weeks later, the Kansas City Chiefs are preparing to play for their third Super Bowl title in five seasons against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday.
How did that happen?
Since that ugly Christmas loss, the Kansas City Chiefs made a significant change in their offensive approach that has allowed them to reel off five straight victories. One singularly important stat represents the change, and it will likely determine whether the Chiefs will be holding the Lombardi Trophy as the first repeat champions in 19 years.
Remember this number: 23.5.
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Why 23.5 is critical to Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII
When the Chiefs were reeling at 9-6 after the Raiders’ defeat, head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy decided the Chiefs needed more balance in their attack.
The Chiefs, who’d ranked No. 1 in total offense in 2022, were ranked 15th in 2023, averaging more than a touchdown fewer points than the year before.
Anyone watching the Chiefs could see how visibly frustrated Mahomes was with the receivers, who led the NFL in dropped passes (44) and dropped pass percentage (6.9 percent). With the receivers being both unproductive and unreliable, Reid and Nagy made one simple yet season-altering move.
Get the ball to Isiah Pacheco more. More specifically, at least 23.5 times per game.
The second-year running back was already an important part of the Chiefs’ offense before they made this subtle shift. But once they got the ball to Pacheco more frequently, the Chiefs’ fortunes turned around completely.
It started with the Chiefs’ New Year’s Eve game against the Cincinnati Bengals, a game they won 25-17. Pacheco rushed 18 times for 130 yards and caught seven passes for 35 yards. What’s important to note is that it was the first time all season Pacheco had 25 touches in a game.
Why does that matter? Pacheco played 14 regular-season games for the Chiefs. He missed the Week 14 and Week 15 games with a shoulder injury, and he sat out the Week 18 game — a 13-12 win over the Los Angeles Chargers — because it was an inconsequential game for the Chiefs, who were already playoff-bound.
So, let’s look at Pacheco’s last four games, with the Chiefs’ three playoff games included, compared to the previous 13 he played during the regular season.
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Comparing Isiah Pacheco’s numbers
| First 13 games | Last 4 games | |
| Average touches/game | 17.2 | 23.5 |
| Rushing yards/game | 61.9 | 96.0 |
| Total yards/game | 78.0 | 111.5 |
| Avg. yards/rush | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Avg. yards/touch | 4.53 | 4.74 |
| 25+ touches/game | 0 | 3 |
| Chiefs’ W-L record | 8-5 | 4-0 |
One other stat to note: In the five games the Chiefs lost with Pacheco on the field, he averaged even fewer touches: 15.8 per game.
In the three playoff games alone, Pacheco has had 28, 16, and 25 touches against Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore, respectively, and he averaged 21 carries and 84.7 yards on the ground.
Due to Pacheco’s usage and production, the Chiefs are averaging 127.3 rushing yards per game in the playoffs compared to 104.9 per game during the regular season, which ranked them 19th in the league.
The other player who’s benefitted from Isiah Pacheco’s usage
With the increased emphasis on Pacheco, the other players who’s benefitted, at least in the postseason, has been tight end Travis Kelce.
With Pacheco getting his 23.5 touches per game, it’s opened up opportunities in the passing game for Mahomes to find his favorite receiver.
Comparing Travis Kelce’s numbers
| Regular season (15 games) | Postseason (3 games) | |
| Receptions/game | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| Receiving yards/game | 65.6 | 87.3 |
| Total TDs | 5 | 3 |
Kelce, whose numbers declined this season, has once again looked like an All-Pro performer, thanks to Pacheco’s usage.
With teams needing to devote more defenders to stop Pacheco, that just creates one-on-one opportunities for Kelce, who can use his elite route running and pass catching skills to find openings for Mahomes to target him.
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What Isiah Pacheco’s stats mean against the San Francisco 49ers
With their newfound emphasis on the running game, the Kansas City Chiefs will unleash Isiah Pacheco’s violent running style on the San Francisco 49ers’ suddenly suspect run defense early and often in Super Bowl LVIII.
The 49ers’ run defense, ranked No. 3 during the regular season, struggled mightily to stop the run against the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions, and that’s a big reason why they trailed in both games.
| Regular season (17 games) | Postseason (2 games) | |
| Rushing yards/game | 89.7 | 159.0 |
| Avg. yards/rush | 4.1 | 5.6 |
Although the Chiefs will be playing without their best offensive lineman — All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who is out with a pectoral injury — their best running opportunities will still come behind their offensive interior, led by Pro Bowl center Creed Humphrey, along with right guard Trey Smith and Thuney’s replacement, Nick Allegretti.
While the 49ers’ win rate against the run ranked them 10th in the NFL, they are soft inside, where defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead have low grades as run defenders, according to Pro Football Focus. They are ranked 139th and 115th out of 213 defensive interior linemen in 2023.
The Packers and the Lions also had success running at and around 49ers defensive end Chase Young, something the Chiefs will look at exploit with a healthy dose of Pacheco.
Andy Reid is among the NFL’s most brilliant offensive tacticians, who is well aware of every 49ers defensive weakness, just as he’s mindful of what works and doesn’t work for his Chiefs’ offense.
And what’s working is getting the ball to Isiah Pacheco an average of 23.5 times per game. If the Chiefs can hit that magic number in Super Bowl LVIII, you can bet the Kansas City Chiefs will be holding another Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.