The San Francisco Giants were one of the most aggressive teams in baseball last offseason, spending over $100 million on three players alone. Heading towards the end of a disappointing 2024 season, it appears San Francisco is now in jeopardy of losing two of its best players.
It’s been a letdown season in San Francisco. A team that had expectations of making the playoffs, snapping a two-year playoff drought, is instead fighting to maintain a .500 record. Despite having one of the highest MLB payrolls in 2024, San Francisco has largely disappointed this season. It could lead to changes this winter.
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- Blake Snell stats (FanGraphs): 3.67 ERA, 11.96 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, .189 batting average allowed, 1.08 WHIP, 23.2% K-BB rate in 76 innings pitched
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, starting pitcher Blake Snell intends to opt out of the final year of his contract and he’ll draw significant interest in MLB free agency. Likewise, All-Star third baseman Matt Chapman is widely expected to decline his 2025 option to become a free agent.
Snell struggled early in the year with San Francisco. Between two stints on the injured list, the two-time Cy Young Award winner had a 9.51 ERA with a 1.94 WHIP and a .308 batting average allowed in his first 6 starts. Since returning from the IL in July, Snell holds a 1.03 ERA with a .117 batting average allowed and 0.69 WHIP in 8 starts covering 52.1 innings.
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- Blake Snell contract (Spotrac): $23.5 million salary in 2024, $38.5 million player option for 2025
As long as he stays healthy, Snell has all the incentive to decline the second-year option on his contract thus becoming one of the top free agents. While he’ll likely still be represented by Scott Boras, Snell is expected to sign much earlier than he did last offseason.
While San Francisco is at a real risk of losing Snell to a team like the San Diego Padres or New York Yankees in MLB free agency, they might not be out of total luck. Nightengale reported that while Chapman intends to become a free agent, there’s mutual interest with San Francisco and the Giants will pursue an extension.
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- Matt Chapman contract (Spotrac): $16.666 million salary in 2024, $17.66 million salary in 2025 (player option), $18.66 million salary in 2026 (player option, $20 million salary in 2027 (mutual option)
Chapman has the choice between entering MLB free agency or taking the remaining $56.3 million over his contract across the next three seasons. Given his production this season, he could push San Francisco to offer a multi-year contract worth $20-plus million annually over the same length of time.
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- Matt Chapman stats (Baseball Reference): .245/.335/.439, .774 OPS, 121 OPS+, 19 home runs, 5.6 WAR
The positive Giants news here is that Chapman and Snell both declining their contract options would open up payroll significantly. It could provide San Francisco with the necessary room to pursue Juan Soto or another top free-agent hitter this winter.