Mikko Rantanen’s next contract won’t just be about his talent—it’ll be about which team is willing to pay his asking price. With recent deals like Leon Draisaitl and William Nylander setting the market, Rantanen’s consistency and goal-scoring ability put him in line for a massive payday. The question is: can Carolina—or any contender—structure an offer that gets the deal done?
Competitors in the Free Agency Market
How critical is Carolina’s ability to offer the 8th year? As we saw with Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay was willing to pay the player’s initial asking amount ($63 million total) despite the inability to spread the dollars out over 8 years. We should safely assume that Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team willing to pay $63 million over 7 years either. Players of that caliber have little trouble finding bidders in the marketplace.
Although every team must approach their negotiations with thorough research on the marketplace and well-supported arguments as to why a player should be paid a certain amount, sometimes a player will simply bank on one of 31 other teams making an outlandish offer. It happens all the time. Teams view a player at a certain value; however, once free agency hits, the marketplace speaks
Now, we can narrow the marketplace a bit by assuming that if Rantanen hits free agency, he will want to sign with a contender—a contender that will be close to or at the cap. So, there is some value in the 8th year but not enough for a team to give up the assets to replenish what Carolina gave up in acquiring Rantanen. If we assume that Rantanen is only going to sign with a contender, that gives those contending teams some leverage in their negotiations, possibly enough to offset the inability to offer an 8th year.
There will be plenty of teams—both contending and rebuilding—throwing cash at Rantanen. If Carolina wants to have a shot at extending Rantanen, they will have to accept that the marketplace is always full of irrational actors.
Contract Comparisons: Setting Rantanen’s Market
To that end, I’d expect that if Rantanen is ready to negotiate, his agent will be looking at William Nylander’s 8-year, $92 million contract as a starting point. That contract, however, took effect this season when the salary cap was at $88M, or 13.07% of the team’s salary cap. The 2025-26 cap will be $95.5 million, so I’d assume that Rantanen’s agent is going to be starting with a pure baseline assessment around 13.07% of $95.5 million or approximately $12.5 million. I would also assume that Rantanen’s agents are taking as gospel the most recent salary cap projections of $104M in 2026-27 and $113.5M in 2027-28, meaning they’ll expect some consideration to be given to the projected cap increases in their valuation of the player.
Let’s take a very cursory look at the winger market. Aside from Nylander, other relevant comparables would be Jonathan Huberdeau (8 x $10.50M) and David Pastrnak (8 x $11.25M). However, Rantanen’s career statistics (currently at around 90 points per season) outweigh those of his comparables, including Nylander. At the time Nylander signed his extension in January 2024, he was averaging 71 points per season and was amid a career season with a 120 points per season pace. By comparison, Rantanen is currently on pace for a 98-point season. It is Rantanen’s consistency, however, that I’d imagine his agents will be relying on for a premium; Rantanen put up 107 points in the year prior to his platform year (PY-1) and 105 points in his PY-2. Huberdeau is the only other comparable with similar consistency prior to signing.
I’d also expect that Rantanen’s agent will be arguing for a goal-scoring premium, as Rantanen produced 55 goals in his PY-2 and has seen 30+ goal seasons (and possibly 40+ goal seasons, depending on this year’s performance) over the past 3 seasons. As such, I can imagine a world where Rantanen will be asking for closer to $14 million as an anchoring point but also to reflect that Rantanen (in my opinion) is a better two-way player than Nylander, has won a Stanley Cup, and can score goals. Someone will be willing to pay that price, so it is on Carolina to figure out how to make a deal.
Where Carolina can negotiate is in the value of the later years of the contract. As we all know, 8-year contracts tend to be less valuable as the player ages. Nylander signed his 8-year deal at age 27 whereas Rantanen will be signing at age 28. Although the players are 6 months apart in age, I would expect there to be some concessions, which are, in fact, reflective in the marketplace.
For example, Huberdeau signed at age 29 and had similar career and platform year production compared to Nylander, but he earned $8 million less. True, Huberdeau signed his extension much earlier than Nylander, and thus Calgary likely sought and received a discount. However, I would argue that an additional discount was also built in to reflect the player’s signing age of 29. The 8th year in Huberdeau’s contract will—statistically speaking—be much less valuable than Nylander’s 8th year; Nylander will be age 35 in year 8 of his deal, whereas Huberdeau will be age 37. There is no doubt in my mind that Lewis Gross argued this age difference between Nylander and Huberdeau when negotiating his client’s deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
I’d expect that Carolina would know exactly what strategy has been effective with Rantanen’s agents and what wasn’t, and, more importantly, where the parties stood prior to the trade. It would be superfluous to go through the same motions again and expect a different result. I would have already had dinner with Rantanen and his agent – not necessarily to talk business, but to make the player and the agent feel welcome in the organization. This type of relationship management is important to players and agents.
Structure-wise, there are plenty of tools available to Carolina where they can attempt to bridge a gap in dollars: the use of signing bonuses, leveraging state tax law, and deferred salary.
Projecting Rantanen’s Next Deal
Armed with negotiables, I’d expect Carolina to start at somewhere around 8 x $12.5M ($100 million), but I would be prepared to go as high as 8 x $13M ($104 million), at least at this point in the season. If the agent is willing to bridge the gap with some favorable structure, including the use of deferred salary, it would be easier for me to venture into the $14M territory. Players of this caliber do not come around often, and Rantanen is the exact type of player that Carolina needs.
Let’s not forget that Carolina also has a safety valve—the trade deadline. If I weren’t certain a deal was getting done, I would be hammering the phones to see what the return might be to trade Rantanen (and his $4.625M cap hit) at the deadline. As such, Carolina has an artificial deadline in its corner, which could help to spur action on the agent’s part.
If I am Carolina, I am doing everything I can to get a deal done. Sure, there are going to be a lot of great players possibly hitting UFA at the end of the season, but none of them would be as good of a fit as Rantanen. There is no guarantee Mitchell Marner is going to be available, and, for me, he is not the fit that Carolina needs to get over the hump.