With Week 2 officially in the can, we turn our attention to NFL Week 3.
Those of you who like options should savor every moment of this upcoming slate of games. In Week 4, the bye weeks start and run through Week 13, with the exception of Week 12.
So, this will be the last 16-game week for a good, long while.
What games are on the docket? What must each team do to win? Who will win each game?
Let’s have a look.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
How the Texans win
On offense, Brock Osweiler can’t turn the ball over. On defense, Houston has to pressure Jacoby Brissett early, keeping him from developing a rhythm. If that happens, the Texans will win, so long as they keep the likes of Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan contained.
How the Patriots win
Don’t let Osweiler get comfortable. The Pats will need to apply consistent pressure, mixing up the defense. Osweiler has as many interceptions as touchdown passes on the young season, so he is vulnerable. When the defense does set up an opportunity, Brissett and the offense must capitalize.
Prediction: Texans win 20-16
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
How the Cardinals win
Establish David Johnson early. West coast teams often struggle getting their feet underneath them in the Eastern time zone. In the early going, make things as simply as possible. Once everyone finds their bearings, open it up with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and Co.
How the Bills win
Attack Palmer. The Cardinals are a better version of the Jets team that just won in Buffalo. Still, Palmer does have a tendency to get rattled in the face of pressure. Rex Ryan-led teams have had a habit of beating more talented teams by getting to the quarterback.
The Bills can’t be scared. They shouldn’t play dirty, but they also can’t fear the occasional roughing the passer penalty. If Palmer gets a clean pocket, this game is over early. If not, an upset becomes possible.
Prediction: Cardinals win 31-14
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
How the Raiders win
Oakland has to find its pass rush. The Raiders have recorded only two sacks on the young season. Sacks aren’t the end all and be all of a pass rush, but they’re pretty telling. The lack of a pass rush has led to a historically awful performance through through two weeks. If the rush can get to Marcus Mariota, the secondary has a chance. If not, this turns into a shootout for the third week in a row.
How the Titans win
Turn Marcus Mariota loose. Normally the recipe for the lesser talented team is to control the clock and shorten the game. Not so much here. In this case, Mariota has to test the secondary that allowed 423 yards to Drew Brees in Week 1 and 396 to Matt Ryan in Week 2. If the line gives Mariota time and he plays aggressively, a Tennessee win is not out of the question.
Prediction: Raiders win 37-31
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
How the Redskins win
Get the running game involved. Washington didn’t have a great running attack in 2015, but it was at least middle of the road. Through two weeks of 2016, no team has attempted fewer rushes than the Redskins.
Being one dimensional is never good. When the one dimension is Kirk Cousins, it’s even worse.
Also, the heavy passing game only increases the workload for a struggling Washington defense. The Redskins have to establish a rushing game soon. Week 3 is as good a time as any.
How the Giants win
Don’t let Cousins get comfortable. If there’s any truth to the rumor that the Redskins are frustrated with Cousins’ indecisiveness, New York has to keep him on his toes. Show as many packages and looks as you possibly can. Let that indecisiveness grown.
The Giants have won two close games in a row, so they can’t count on a blowout. But if Cousins is kept guessing, odds are good that he’ll make a critical mistake at the wrong time. Also, Odell Beckham Jr. can’t get caught up in his beef with Josh Norman again.
Prediction: Giants win 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
How the Browns win
One, they need to get to Ryan Tannehill, forcing the Miami quarterback into quick decisions. On offense, Cleveland has to take the ball out of the hands of Cody Kessler. Let the Isaiah Crowell-led rushing attack carry the day with some short passes to Gary Barnidge mixed in.
How the Dolphins win
Get vertical. The long ball has been there for the Dolphins, but they haven’t gone to it enough. Also, they have to get things going before the third quarter. Miami has lost it first two games by a combined nine points, but has been outscored 30-6 in the first half. The Dolphins can’t keep gradually building into the games. They have to come out hot. Against an 0-2 team like the Browns, a hot start may be good enough to pull the win.
Prediction: Dolphins win 17-6
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
How the Ravens win
Contain. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson are going to make catches. When they do, though, they have to be brought down. Baltimore had problems bringing down Cleveland’s Corey Coleman in Week 2 and it nearly contributed to a loss. Hurns and Robinson are better, more established receivers than Coleman. The Ravens have to be better, as well.
How the Jaguars win
Establish a ground game. Jacksonville is similar to the Redskins. Like Kirk Cousins, we can’t say that Blake Bortles is a bad quarterback yet, but he’s not good enough to be the one dimension in a one dimensional offense. Whether it’s feeding T.J. Yeldon more or drawing up more plays for Denard Robinson, the Jaguars’ rushing attack has to be featured more.
Prediction: Jaguars win 27-23
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
How the Lions win
Detroit has to get out of its own way. Teams simply don’t blow nine-point fourth quarter leads at home to a questionable offensive squad like the Titans without beating themselves. Whether it’s turnovers, penalties, dropped passes or the other mistakes the Lions have made over the last two weeks, they have to stop. Winning in Green Bay is tough enough. Detroit can’t help the Packers out.
How the Packers win
Let Aaron Rodgers get rid of the ball on time. Yes, Rodgers held the ball for too long against Minnesota, but some of that was necessity. He can’t be expected to throw the ball on time when there’s nobody to throw to. If Green Bay’s receivers are getting open, the worst-case scenario for the Packers is a Matthew Stafford vs. Rodgers shootout. Green Bay wins that.
Prediction: Packers win 27-17
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
How the Broncos win
Trevor Siemian must keep two hands on the ball. This game figures to be a low scoring, defensive slugfest. As good as Cincinnati’s defense is, it’s not as good as Denver’s. But the experience edge of the two quarterbacks goes to the Bengals. The Broncos won’t lose because of Cincinnati’s pass rush. If that rush begins to force turnovers, however, it’s a different story.
How the Bengals win
Somehow, someway get the ball to A.J. Green. In Cincinnati’s Week 1 win, Green caught 12 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown. In the Week 2 loss, the star wideout caught only two passes for 38 yards. He needs to get the ball in his hands. The Broncos are going to pressure Dalton, but the line needs to keep a clean pocket enough to allow Green to be the game’s best player.
Prediction: Broncos win 17-13
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
How the Vikings win
Defensively, Minnesota has to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Cam Newton. It’s a tall task, but given what they just did to Aaron Rodgers it’s not impossible. Whether it’s turnovers or just a slew of Carolina three-and-outs, the Vikings have to dominate the field position game, as well. Otherwise, they simply don’t have the offensive depth to beat a defense like Carolina’s.
How the Panthers win
Carolina must shut down Stefon Diggs. The young receiver may be emerging into a star so shutting him down may not be too likely, but it’s also not necessary. If Diggs simply has a good game, it’s hard to see the rest of the Minnesota offense doing enough to win this one. If he has a great game, though, a Vikings’ win becomes more likely.
Prediction: Panthers win 20-10
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How the Rams win
We could focus on opening holes for Todd Gurley and getting Tavon Austin more involved. That’s certainly important, but it boils down to this. In a Week 1 loss, the Rams hit Blaine Gabbert only once and recorded no sacks. In a Week 2 win, Los Angeles leveled nine hits and two sacks on Russell Wilson. The Rams don’t have an offense that will score many points yet. They need to make life difficult on Jameis Winston.
How the Buccaneers win
Be aggressive early. Imagine being a member of the Los Angeles offense right now. Your offense has scored a whopping nine points in two weeks. How are you going to feel if your team is trailing by a touchdown early? Tampa should draw up an early bomb for Mike Evans, get a early lead and test the resilience of a sputtering Rams offense.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-17
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
How the 49ers win
Follow the model laid out by the Dolphins and Rams. Take advantage of a bad Seattle line and get in the face of Russell Wilson, who’s clearly not 100 percent. Additionally, San Francisco has to protect the ball. Remember, the 49ers forced four turnovers against the Panthers, only to give away three of their own. If the Seahawks’ offense is struggling, Blaine Gabbert has to be conservative with his passes. At the beginning of the year, this looked like a four touchdown loss. Now, a win isn’t likely, but the recipe for an upset does exist.
How the Seahawks win
This really isn’t about the Legion of Boom and the Seattle defense. They’ve been as good as ever in the first two weeks. For the Seahawks to win, they must take pressure off of their offensive line and Wilson by establishing the run. Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael haven’t been involved enough through the first two weeks. A heavy passing attack only sets Seattle up for failure against what’s been a decent San Francisco front seven. The 49ers’ only real chance at a win comes by exploiting that matchup. The Seahawks can’t let that happen.
Prediction: Seahawks win 23-10
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
How the Jets win
New York’s defensive front should have a mammoth advantage over Kansas City’s offensive line. It really comes down to exploiting that and making Alex Smith’s day miserable. Should that happen, the only way the Jets lose is if Ryan Fitzpatrick is worse in Week 3 than Brock Osweiler was in Week 2. Osweiler’s performance was pretty rough. Fitzgerald isn’t a Hall of Famer or anything, but he should be able to match that.
How the Chiefs win
Lining up man-on-man, the Chiefs’ offensive line doesn’t have much of a chance in this one. Kansas City has to keep the Jets’ front off balance. That should mean a bevvy of screens, draws, and quick passing routes. If the Chiefs get into the New York secondary, they have a chance. If it becomes a battle in the trenches, the Jets win and probably win easily.
Prediction: Jets win 26-17
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
How the Chargers win
While we’re on the subject of getting into the secondary, that’s what Philip Rivers has to do. The Colts’ defensive backfield wasn’t exactly a strength entering the season, and now it’s beaten up. If Rivers exploits Indy’s thin defensive backs, it’s hard to see the Colts being too competitive, let alone winning.
How the Colts win
It may seem counter intuitive, but Indianapolis needs to shorten this game. Yes, teams that do that typically rely on a solid defense and a strong offensive line. The Colts don’t exactly boast either. But Rivers and the rest of the Bolts’ offense has to be kept on the sidelines. Indy only wins this game if its secondary sees limited time on the field.
Prediction: Chargers win 30-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
How the Steelers win
Pressuring Carson Wentz is the key. From a pure X’s and O’s standpoint, Pittsburgh has to pressure him in the pocket. From a game standpoint, the Steelers have to play with a lead. Wentz has had a charmed start to his NFL career. The Eagles have won comfortably in each of the season’s first two weeks. Because of that, he hasn’t felt much pressure. Wentz has never really been in a situation where a single pass could be the difference between a win and a loss.
How the Eagles win
Philly has to study the Cincinnati defensive strategy against Antonio Brown and do whatever it takes to emulate it. No, it didn’t lead to a Bengals’ win, but Brown is not often kept in check like that. Wentz is good, but his chances aren’t great against Ben Roethlisberger in a shootout. If Brown is kept in check, though, Philadelphia has a chance.
Prediction: Eagles win 28-21
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
How the Bears win
Alshon Jeffery has to be the game’s best player. Dallas has its question marks but is the vastly superior team. Chicago’s best chance on Sunday is for Jeffery to have a beast of a day where he dominated the Cowboys’ secondary. If the Bears can do that and win the special teams battle, they have a chance. That might be tough, though, after Jay Cutler injured his throwing hand in Week 2.
How the Cowboys win
Dak Prescott is loaded with ability, but his role should be limited here. Dallas needs to take advantage of its offensive line, which should provide a huge advantage. Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris need to take center stage here, with Prescott limiting his throws to when Chicago stacks the line. That map should lead to a convincing win.
Prediction: Cowboys win 27-13
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
How the Falcons win
Atlanta has to win the turnover battle. Beating Drew Brees in the Superdome has been a difficult task for plenty of teams. Successful teams have won not by shutting Brees down, but by stealing possessions with a few turnovers. If the Falcons’ defense does that, Atlanta is in great shape to win, unless Matt Ryan reciprocates.
How the Saints win
New Orleans must make the Falcons one dimensional. Surrendering a big game to Ryan and Julio Jones will be frustrating, but it won’t directly lead to a loss. The Saints will lose if they allow a running attack like they allowed to the Raiders in Week 1. If they keep the Atlanta running attack in check (like Week 2 against the Giants), a likely shootout tilts in favor of the Saints.
Prediction: Falcons win 38-30
