Saturday night NFC playoffs bring an intriguing matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the top seed in the conference, the Green Bay Packers.
Blustery Green Bay adds an entertaining backdrop for a matchup with clear value on both sides. There appears to be an offensive edge for each offense, which is fueling our Same Game Parlay pick for the game. This particular parlay is constructed on DraftKings.
49ers vs Packers SGP: +160 on DK
Before we break down each of the legs of this parlay, let’s look at it on the whole.
The SGP:
–Davante Adams over 79.5 receiving yards
–Elijah Mitchell over 64.5 rushing yards
–Over 37.5 total points
Adams and Mitchell are my favorite options in this game from a prop perspective. We take some alternative lines lower than their standard over/under.
As we’ll get to in a moment, both offenses should conceivably have chances to move the ball and score, so we take the lowest total available for us to bet to bump the odds up.
–Davante Adams over 79.5 receiving yards
The first leg of this +160 parlay is the Packers star receiver, Davante Adams. The 49ers have really struggled slowing down top receivers lately, with 14 of the last 18 hitting their props when facing this San Fran defense.
His straight over/under for receiving yards is currently 94.5. We’ll buy 15 yards for the SGP. Adams has 100+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and had 132 against the 49ers earlier this season.
Rodgers force-feeds Adams, seeing double-digit targets in half of his games this season. Considering San Francisco allows the tenth-most receiving yards per game to WRs, we’ll trust the best pass-catcher on Green Bay to have a big game.
–Elijah Mitchell over 64.5 rushing yards
We have another alternative line for the primary running back of the 49ers. Mitchell has quietly seen some of the steadiest volume you’ll see in the entire NFL, with 21 or more carries in six straight games, going for 27 last week.
Not only does he have the attempts, but he has the production. Mitchell has gone over this 64.5 total in six straight and 9 of his 12 games this season.
Green Bay doesn’t have as good of a run defense as you may think. Only one team allows a higher yards per rush average than the Packers.
The key here is the game staying close early. The 49ers have shown they prefer to run the football, and they’ll be aiming to establish their will early on in this game.
Mitchell will get the work we need to hit this over, as long as the game stays close.
–Over 37.5 points
The over is set at 47.5 and we are bringing it down 10 points to finish off the parlay. I think this game could just go over, so to get 10 points less is a gift.
We’ve stressed the offensive advantages for both teams.
Assuming they capitalize on these areas of weakness as we expect, points should follow.
These teams met back in Week 3, with Green Bay winning 30-28. That’s 58 points there, 21 more than the total we need in this parlay.
That’s it for this simple SGP, you could add some touchdown scorers or bump up the yardage props or total for a better payout. I prefer the safer angle, and +160 odds can help build your bankroll.
–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media