Our NFL betting expert breaks down Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, which starts at 3:00 p.m. EST on CBS.
Rising star and 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow or Super Bowl LIV champion and MVP Patrick Mahomes — one of these two quarterbacks will punch a ticket to Super Bowl LVI when they meet face to face in Kansas City, Mo. on Sunday. Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals beat the Raiders by a touchdown and the top-seeded Titans by a field goal to get this far, breaking the NFL’s longest drought without a playoff win along the way.
The Chiefs, of course, are coming off an instant classic. They beat the Bills 42-36 in overtime, and their fans believe they’re going to make their third straight Super Bowl appearance, hoping for a better result than last year’s loss to the Buccaneers. Kansas City has won 11 of its last 12 games — but the only team it’s lost to in that span was the Bengals. The storylines are writing themselves this postseason.
Bengals vs. Chiefs predictions
–Chiefs to lead at halftime and win outright @ -160 with BetMGM
–Bengals to score more than 23.5 points @ +100 with BetMGM
–More than 326.5 passing + rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes @ -115 with BetMGM
For KC, two halves make a whole
Cincinnati won the Week 17 regular-season meeting with Kansas City 34-31 despite trailing 28-17 at halftime. It goes to show how neither of these offenses can ever be counted out. Given how the Bengals are playing, we think they’ll keep this close. But Mahomes put the Chiefs on his back to deliver Kansas City an incredible victory last week, and it’d be foolhardy to bet against him avenging the loss to the Bengals the way he did the Bills.
The spread of 7.5 points is a bit too wide given the thin margins of many of these teams’ recent games, but Kansas City’s -350 moneyline isn’t that appealing unless you parlay it with something else. That said, BetMGM offers the option to combine who will lead at halftime and who will be ahead after four quarters (excluding overtime). If the Chiefs can take another halftime lead, don’t expect them to forfeit it this time.
Our pick: Chiefs to lead at halftime and win outright @ -160 with BetMGM.
Keeping up with the Mahomeses
Few teams can keep up with the Chiefs’ offensive prowess right now. The Bills are one, obviously. Last year’s version of the Buccaneers did more than keep up when they stuffed Mahomes during Super Bowl LV. But on this short list, the final team might be the Bengals, who ranked seventh in both scoring offense and passing offense in the regular season and went toe to toe with the Chiefs earlier this month.
It’s true that Cincinnati has won its two playoff games with defense more than anything. But the Chiefs’ defense, which had a dominant stretch during the second half of the regular season, showed its flaws again vs. Buffalo. Burrow and his arsenal of weapons — Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd — can pick up big chunk plays against the Kansas City secondary, especially Chase, who racked up 266 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier meeting. It doesn’t help that the Chiefs might be without their best safety, Tyrann Mathieu, due to a concussion, leaving the unreliable Daniel Sorensen to take more snaps.
Our pick: Bengals to score more than 23.5 points @ +100 with BetMGM.
Won’t stand Pat
The Bengals have an underappreciated pass rush guided by Trey Hendrickson (14.5 sacks), Sam Hubbard (7.5) and Larry Ogunjobi (5.5). They didn’t take Mahomes down in Week 17 but they’ll be gunning for him in the rematch. As we saw when the Bucs sacked Mahomes three times and landed 10 QB hits on him in Super Bowl LV, it’s one of the few known ways to fluster the All-Pro.
But we also know about Mahomes’ penchant for escaping the pocket and making off-schedule plays, or simply running for the first down. Lost in last week’s thriller against Buffalo was the fact that Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing, thanks in part to a 34-yard sprint straight up the middle. He has game speed that most quarterbacks would dream of. That’s why this over/under for combined passing and rushing yards is doubtlessly in his reach. He could rack up that many yards from passing alone and we wouldn’t bat an eye, or he could need to scramble a few times and meet the number that way.
Our pick: More than 326.5 passing + rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes @ -115 with BetMGM.
–By Adam Zielonka, Field Level Media