After not making the postseason for a full decade, the Philadelphia Phillies have played in the last two National League Championship Series. They advanced to the World Series in 2022 and ultimately lost to the Houston Astros, then dropped their NLCS matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks last season.
This team is fueled by dingers, some elite pitchers, and vibes. It’s a combination that has knocked the Atlanta Braves out of the postseason each of the last two seasons.
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The goal for the Phillies heading into 2024 will obviously be to hoist the trophy at the end of the season, but they haven’t really changed much of their roster from the past year to increase those odds. On paper, the Phillies are one of the better teams in the National League. Even though Atlanta arguably has the better roster, it’s the Braves that need to figure out a way to get past Philadelphia in October, not the other way around.
Phillies additions and subtractions
The biggest splash the Phillies made was to re-sign Aaron Nola to a seven year, $172 million deal. Without him, Philadelphia would be a much different team, so this was a deal that had to happen.
From there, the Phillies didn’t do a whole lot in terms of big-time moves. They brought in Whit Merrifield as a utility player and Spencer Turnbull to pitch out of the ‘pen, but that’s pretty much all of the win-now moves. It helps that the only player who was departing the roster from last season with a positive WAR was reliever Craig Kimbrel.
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Rhys Hoskins has also departed, signing with the Milwaukee Brewers, but he missed the entirety of the 2023 campaign, so the Phillies don’t have to replace his production. In terms of weighing the additions vs. the subtractions, Philadelphia comes out +1 in WAR difference. They’re a slightly better team.
Phillies 2024 outlook
The outcome of the Phillies’ 2024 season stems from Bryce Harper’s move to first base. Last season he recorded +3 outs above average according to Statcast, and over the course of a full season that figure should go up. Harper was the ninth-best hitter in all of baseball last season according to wRC+. His 142 (100 is league average) also ranked fourth among first basemen.
The reason this move is so important is because it gives the Phillies a top-tier offensive presence at the position, and also clears the way for the outfield defense to improve. In 2021 Harper finished with a -7 OAA, and the following year he was league average. Now they have 23-year-old Johan Rojas in center field, and in just 59 games last season he accrued 9 OAA, which was tied for sixth among all center fielders. Think of OAA like home runs. The more you play, the more opportunities you have to get one. If he had played in 120 games last season at the level he was at, he would have been the best centerfielder in baseball.
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The question for Rojas will be his bat. Last year he hit .302 with a .342 OBP, two homers and 14 stolen bases, good for a 109 wRC+. That’s a tremendous stat line. The one downside here, and it’s a big one, is that his BABIP was astronomical at .410. His expected batting average as .247. He doesn’t hit the ball terribly hard and he walked just three percent of the time last season, so those are things that he’ll have to work on in 2024.
With Rojas in center, that allows the Phillies to slide Brandon Marsh, another really good defender with +7 OAA, to left field. That subsequently moves Kyle Schwarber, the worst defender at any position last season with -19 OAA, to the DH spot. That still leaves Nick Castellanos’ -6 OAA in right field, but overall the outfield defense figures to be much improved this season.
The Phillies may not have made many big moves on the transaction front, but improving the entire team’s defense dramatically is no small feat.
FanGraphs has the Phillies projected for an 85-77 season, while Baseball Prospectus has them slightly lower at 84.2-77.8. FG essentially ranks them as the third-best team in the National League behind the Braves and Dodgers, while BP also throws the Diamondbacks (85-77) and the Cardinals (84.4-77.6) slightly ahead of Philly.
Phillies player to watch in 2024
If you’re looking for someone who could take a step forward for this club, 27-year-old lefty Cristopher Sánchez could be that guy. He’s been up and down between Triple-A and Philadelphia each of the last two seasons, but last year he made 19 appearances (18 starts) and held a 3.44 ERA with a 3.99 FIP across 99 1/3 innings.
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Two things that jumped out from his stat line last season were his 57% ground ball rate and his four percent walk rate. The league average ground ball rate for starters last season was 41.8%, and since he’s a roughly average strikeout pitcher at 24.1%, that ground ball rate could be the key to him having success moving forward. Of his 18 starts last year, he walked more than one batter just three times. He walked a pair of batters twice and three hitters once in an August start against the Twins.
His main weapon is his changeup, which batters hit just .148 against last season and held a 43% whiff rate. The heat map on that pitch is low and mostly out of the zone, which would explain his 34.8% chase rate overall, which ranked in the 97th percentile. If you want to get nerdy for a second, check this out. His changeup had the second-most vertical movement of any changeup in baseball at 9.2 inches vs the average, while his horizontal movement was 3.4 inches more than the average, good for eighth-most.
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Fun fact: Spencer Turnbull, the righty that the Phillies signed to pitch out of the bullpen, his change ranked fourth in horizontal movement (3.9), and 22nd in vertical movement (4.2). The depth of this Phillies team may be the best they’ve had in recent years, and that could play a big role for them come October. If they meet up with the Braves in October again, they’re going to have to find a new way to beat them. This year it could be with Sánchez, not Suárez, and outfield defense.