Staying on top of the hill isn’t sustainable over the long haul. Every NFL star has a shelf life, though some are relevant for much longer than others.
Last year, Peyton Manning was the most dramatic example of a star who faded. His precipitous drop-off in luster was one of the biggest stories of the year. And while he did end up going out in style with a Super Bowl win, he did it on the back of the league’s best defense, struggling to make a positive impact.
So who will lose his mojo this year? Which stars will start to fade?
Philip Rivers, quarterback, San Diego Chargers
While it’s true Rivers is getting up there in age (35), there’s no doubt he can still sling it with the best of them. That said, the Chargers haven’t done enough to ensure he stays healthy in his latter years.
San Diego didn’t do much to improve Rivers’ offensive line, which allowed him to be sacked 40 times last year. Instead of drafting a top offensive tackle No. 3 overall, Dean Spanos and Co. opted to take a shot at bolstering their defense with Joey Bosa — a questionable decision, considering he’s going to be playing out of position.
While Keenan Allen is a terrific player, he isn’t your prototypical No. 1 receiver. He’s also had a tough time staying healthy since his rookie season. As a result, the team’s leading receiver in 2015 was running back Danny Woodhead. Granted, speedy deep threat Travis Benjamin was brought over in free agency, but he joins a weak receiving corps.
Leading rusher Melvin Gordon was horrendous as a rookie, averaging 3.5 yards per carry — Trent Richardson-esque, without any touchdowns to make it even slightly tolerable. Making matters worse, he’s recovering from microfracture surgery (more on that here).
An aging quarterback playing with an aging tight end in Antonio Gates, a mediocre receiving corps, a terrible offensive line and rushing attack. What could go wrong?
Julius Peppers, outside linebacker, Green Bay Packers
One of the game’s greatest pass rushers for nearly a decade-and-a-half, Peppers is nearing ancient status at the age of 36.
Truly, what he has accomplished the past two seasons, learning a new position as an outside linebacker in Green Bay’s 3-4 scheme, is remarkable. On top of that, he racked up 10.5 sacks last year, which tied him for 12th in the NFL.
But age catches up to us all. Peppers will likely see his snap count reduced this year, and it’s hard to imagine he has another big season left in his tank after so many games under his belt.
Frank Gore, running back, Indianapolis Colts
Gore has already started to feel the hand of Father Time on his shoulder.
Playing behind one of the league’s least talented offensive lines last year with the Colts, Gore failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the third time in his career and the first time in four years. Even more telling, his 3.7 yards per carry was a career low, and 2015 was the first season in which he failed to rush for at least four per carry.
Throw in a defense that scares nobody and you’re looking at an offense that will be throwing it a ton in the second half of games.
Now at the age of 33, playing behind Andrew Luck — one of the most pass-happy quarterbacks in the league, thanks to that defense — Gore should continue to see his production droop.
Josh Norman, cornerback, Washington Redskins
Was Norman’s outstanding 2015 campaign an outlier or was it just the tip of the iceberg? We’ll soon find out.
Obviously, this scribe believes Norman will come back down to earth a bit after he thrust himself into the conversation as one of the top corners in the NFL last year. He was a solid corner his first three years in the league but certainly not a great corner until it all came together for one glorious season.
The biggest thing Norman won’t have going in his favor is they kind of dynamic front seven that Carolina featured. Granted, Washington isn’t terrible up front, but there won’t be nearly as much pressure being generated, meaning Norman will be covering his man for longer periods of time on average.
Furthermore, the Redskins don’t feature much help behind Norman, with DeAngelo Hall and rookie Su’a Cravens being penciled in as starting safeties.
Norman will become just one more bad contract Washington has on its books before too long.
Demaryius Thomas, wide receiver, Denver Broncos
Thomas must have been one of the saddest people on planet Earth when Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler jumped ship to play for the Houston Texans. Okay, maybe that’s a bit over the top, but the sentiment remains valid.
Whether it’s Paxton Lynch or Mark Sanchez (or Tim Tebow?) behind center for the Broncos this upcoming season, that there will be a drop-off in production from the quarterback position is a given. Even compared to last year’s dismal campaign in this regard.
Thomas enters the 2016 season with a new quarterback who’ll be learning a new system and who doesn’t have a chance in H-E-double-hockey-sticks of taking full advantage of his outstanding receiver on the perimeter.
The Broncos are going to feature a run-heavy offensive scheme this year, utilizing play-action passes and simpler passing concepts. Through no fault of his own, Thomas is doomed to have a down year. Count on that, fantasy football owners.