Will the NBA free agency season produce dramatic moves? Or will it all just lead to fake hustle?
Anything can happen once the period begins Friday (6 p.m. ET). It appears, though, that both potential developments won’t be mutually exclusive. Sportsnaut’s list of marquee free agents include a heavy number of candidates that will eventually just re-sign with their respective teams. What about the teams that actually will be active once NBA free agency begins?
Below is a look at the organizations most likely to make significant changes.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers’ star (Damian Lillard) and his agent (Aaron Goodwin) met with general manager Joe Cronin earlier this week to discuss the state of the franchise ahead of the NBA free agency period. Afterwards, Cronin released a statement that said “we had a great dialogue” before adding that “we remain committed to building a winner around Dame.” That message might be similar to what the Blazers have said throughout Lillard’s 11-year NBA career as they continued to make the playoffs without seriously contending for an NBA title. But the message also read similar to when a team announces how a free-agent meeting went well before that prospect eventually signed elsewhere.
With Portland drafting Scoot Henderson with their No. 3 pick, the Blazers already revealed their actual intensions. They will prioritize their long-term future than pairing Lillard with established players that are ready to win right away. They have already found Lillard’s replacement at point guard should they eventually trade him. Portland theoretically could still deal Henderson (or a package) to a team that yields them those veterans. But if the Blazers couldn’t land a significant deal before Draft night when a pick’s value is at its highest, it could become more difficult to find a better trade after the draft.
Once it becomes clear those efforts reveal no pathway toward building a contender around Lillard, it appears likely Portland and Lillard will have an amicable divorce. Lillard will finally request a trade. Portland will honor it while threading the needle between sending Lillard to a contending team while ensuring it receives enough in return. Out of respect for both parties, it appears neither side wants to be the bad guy that initiates the breakup. It seems inevitable that will happen, though, sooner rather than later.
Miami Heat
The Heat have and will continue to press Portland on Lillard’s availability. Despite appearing in the NBA Finals as an eighth seed, the Heat showed it’s not sustainable to pair Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo with a cast of overachieving undrafted players (Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson) and established veterans on reduced roles (Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love). Considering that Strus will likely receive mid-level exception offers elsewhere, the Heat will also anticipate letting him walk because of a looming luxury tax bill.
As much as Heat president Pat Riley has shown aggressiveness with making big moves, he has always placed a heavy value with retaining the team’s spending flexibility and depth. Miami popularized the super-team concept with pairing LeBron James and Chris Bosh with Dwyane Wade over a decade ago partly because all of those players took relative discounts. Since then, the NBA’s labor deal has made it harder both to build and retain such teams. Therefore, the safe bet is that the Heat won’t acquire Lillard because the asking price will become too high. Still, expect Miami to stay aggressive with improving around the margins so that Butler and Adebayo have a better supporting cast.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns already made a splashy move by acquiring an All-Star caliber guard (Bradley Beal) from the Washington Wizards. Don’t be surprised if the Suns make another big move with dealing center Deandre Ayton. Bleacher Report recently reported that the Suns plan to keep Ayton. The report is certainly accurate. Ayton is an elite big man. The Suns could use his rim protection. And Phoenix first-year head coach Frank Vogel could elevate Ayton with his defensive expertise and fresh voice after Ayton clashed with former coach Monty Williams. Here’s an educated guess, though, that the Suns will soon change their mind.
The reasons? They will realize Ayton will likely become frustrated with an even more limited offensive role with Beal’s arrival. They will conclude that Ayton’s defensive presence will mean little without a robust bench to relieve the burden on the Suns’ star players. And Phoenix will find a robust market for Ayton’s services. So, don’t be surprised if the Suns morph from one of the league’s most top-heavy teams to one of the league’s most balanced teams within a week. If this prediction doesn’t happen, the Suns will still be active addressing their depth issues by trying to entice established players to accept veteran’s minimum deals with hopes to win an NBA title.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets and James Harden might flirt with each other. The two parties won’t get back together, though. Harden will accept a new contract with Philadelphia, and Houston will try to build on its young roster. The Rockets will then pursue other options armed with $60.9 million available in cap space.
Houston selected a dynamic playmaker (Amen Thompson) with the No. 4 pick in the NBA Draft. Yet, the Rockets’ first free-agent target will likely be Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet in hopes for him to carry a young team and further mentor Thompson. Should the Rockets strike out, they have other decent options. They appear to have a chance at signing Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez, who would help Houston both with rim protection and a veteran locker room presence, particularly for rookie forward Cam Whitmore. The Rockets have an intriguing young roster, including Thompson, Whitmore, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. But they all need to compete in a winning environment. So after hiring a proven head coach (Ime Udoka) that has shown he can hold players accountable, look for the Rockets to round out the rest of the roster with veterans to do the same thing for their young players.
Toronto Raptors
Ideally, the Raptors would like to keep everything so they can become an Eastern Conference contender again under first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic. All it takes is one domino to fall to wreck those plans. That starts with Fred VanVleet, who declined his $22.8 million player option to see what lucrative deals he can receive from other teams equipped to win. The Raptors could have the edge over any rebuilding teams with cap space, but VanVleet arguably could be the final piece for that rebuilding team to make the next step. Those variables may just prompt Toronto to accommodate a sign-and-trade so at least they land assets in return.
That way, the Raptors have a better chance with addressing everything else. They want to retain center Jakob Poeltl. They hope to agree to off-season extensions with one of the NBA’s most versatile players (Pascal Siakam) and one of the league’s best defenders (O.G. Anunoby). At least guard Gary Trent Jr. picked up his $18.5 million extension. With the real possibility that VanVleet could go elsewhere, however, the Raptors face a potentially difficult decision with retaining everybody else.
Mark Medina is an NBA Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.