The MLB off-season has been a slog this winter, with a number of top free agents still on the market that have the power to tip the balance of power one way or another once they sign. As of right now though, there is a trend that seems to be growing among the teams that are either firmly in contention, or those that would like to be in the postseason picture when October rolls around.
That trend is adding players that have high ceilings, but also have injury concerns with the hope that they’ll be on the field when the games matter a little more.
Atlanta Braves add Chris Sale
The Atlanta Braves had the best record in baseball last year at 104-58 and this winter they have added a few players that represent incremental upgrades. They also traded Vaughn Grissom to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for starter Chris Sale in what they hope will be a significant upgrade. Grissom was blocked at nearly every position, so moving him makes some sense. Adding a player of Sale’s caliber is also wise, but it does come with some risk.
Over the past three seasons he has pitched a combined 151 innings and held a 3.93 ERA. Granted, 102 2/3 of those innings came in 2023 when he held a 4.30 ERA. From 2013-2018 he finished in the top-5 in AL Cy Young voting, peaking at second in 2017. He also had a sixth-place finish in 2012. The tall left-hander also holds the highest strikeouts per nine rate of all time at 11.1. When healthy, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
The entirety of that trade is going to come down to whether or not Sale is healthy when the postseason begins and what kind of starts he gives them. Atlanta had no problem making the postseason without Sale. It’s what happens once they’re in that counts. He has a career 6.35 ERA in 34 postseason innings, including an 8.47 ERA in the Divisional Series, the round the Braves have had a hard time escaping the past two seasons.
New York Yankees have a pair of (ailing) aces
The New York Yankees are a better team now than they were when the season ended. They also ended up outside of the postseason for the fourth time in the past 11 seasons after finishing 19 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East and six back of Toronto for the third and final Wild Card spot. They had to get better.
The Yankees have added Juan Soto, but they gave up a decent amount of pitching depth to land the 25-year-old. Last week they went out and addressed their biggest need by signing Marcus Stroman, who has been a solidly consistent pitcher over his career. He may not be the ace of the staff, but since 2019 he has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 115 starts. Stroman isn’t the concern.
Instead, it’s Carlos Rodón, who signed a six year, $162 million deal with the Yankees ahead of the 2023 campaign. He spent most of his first season in the Bronx on the IL, and when he was on the field he held a 6.85 ERA across 14 starts. His strikeouts were down, his walks were up and he was giving up home runs left, right, and center. There were a lot of questions about the lefty’s health before he signed with the San Francisco Giants in 2022, but then he made 31 starts, posted a 2.88 ERA and finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. If he’s on, he’s New York’s No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole.
But the questions don’t stop there for New York. Nestor Cortes started just 12 games for the Yankees last season while dealing with a rotator cuff issue, and in those starts he held a 4.97 ERA. For New York to have success in the playoffs, they’ll need Cole, Stroman, Rodón and Cortes all able to throw effectively. Their problem is a little trickier, however, because they’re also playing catch up and likely need their starters to all remain healthy during the regular season as well in order to even make the postseason.
San Francisco Giants are sure trying something
The Giants, like the Yankees, finished well back in their division at 21 back of the Dodgers. They also finished five back of a divisional opponent in the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot and fourth overall in their division. The Giants have not made the same upgrades that the Yankees have, but they’ve had an interesting off-season to date.
They signed Jung-Hoo Lee, who seems like he could be a great fit in the orange and black and act as their local superstar. He has the personality and the talent, but it will be a matter of how quickly he acclimates to MLB that will determine how quickly fans fall in love with him and how much success the team has this year.
The big question marks for San Francisco are with their additions on the mound. Last week they signed career reliever Jordan Hicks and his blazing fastball to a four year, $44 million deal. They also plan on having him start games. Hey, if it works out he could be a huge signing for the Giants and could give them another starter that can eat up some innings. He may only go five frames, but they could be solid to elite.
One glaring issue is that he hasn’t topped 100 innings in the big leagues in a single season and the closest he came was back in 2018 when he racked up 77 2/3. The other issue is that he has been a little injury prone in his five seasons, pitching in just 74 games total in three seasons between 2019-2022 (he sat out 2020). That’s nearly 25 outings as a reliever. If it works out, this is going to be a tremendous signing for the Giants. If it doesn’t, then maybe he slides to the bullpen and works out well there.
The Giants also traded for 2021 AL Cy Young Robbie Ray, who is set to be out for the first half of the season after getting Tommy John last May. Ray is signed through the 2026 season, but has an opt out after 2024. The Giants may be looking more for 2025 and beyond depending on what they do the rest of the winter, but if they go out and sign Blake Snell or Matt Chapman (or both), then they’ll also be banking on Ray coming back healthy in the second half and giving them another solid starter behind Logan Webb and Alex Cobb (if he’s healthy, too).
Los Angeles Dodgers have added three elite MLB starters, no sure things
The Dodgers have been written about a ton this off-season, mostly because they’re making most of the headlines. They signed Shohei Ohtani. They signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They traded for Tyler Glasnow, then signed him to an extension. They have made some big additions to their rotation to pair with a returning Walker Buehler and young starters Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan.
Problem is, Ohtani won’t be pitching in 2024, so he’s out. Yamamoto will likely thrive in Major League Baseball, but he hasn’t done it yet, so he’s still an unproven piece of the rotation.
Then you have Tyler Glasnow, who is one of the best starters in baseball when he’s on the mound. The most starts he’s made in a single season is 21, which came last year with Tampa Bay and he held a 3.53 ERA.
The Dodgers are in a position similar to the Braves, where making the playoffs isn’t the issue, it’s what happens once they get in that they’re trying to solve. Only one team can represent the National League, however, which is giving this winter the feeling of an arms race. The determining factor for both teams is going to end up being which of their key additions this winter is healthy once October rolls around.
Jason Burke covers Major League Baseball for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.