As we enter the final month of the MLB season, there are a slew of new teams making their case to be taken seriously as we march towards October. The Baltimore Orioles (83-50) hold the best record in the American League. The New York Yankees (65-69) are 10 games out of a wild card spot. It’s been a wild season, and it feels like we’re in store for a wild finish.
A couple of division races are all but over, but with expanded playoffs teams have more opportunities to find themselves playing baseball past the regular season and into October.
Because of these expanded playoffs, we saw the Cleveland Guardians, a team six games below .500, make some noise on the waiver wire to close out August with the hopes of making a big September push in a winnable division. The three players they claimed all came from the Los Angeles Angels, who funnily enough hold the same record as Cleveland at 64-70 but are 12.5 back in the AL West.
Let’s take a look across the league and see where things stand in every division, in the wild card races, and sneak a peek at what playoff matchups could be in store for the first two rounds.
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MLB Playoff picture: The beasts of the East
In the American League East, it’s the Baltimore Orioles (83-50) that hold a 1.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays (82-52) as we enter September, with the Toronto Blue Jays (73-61) in the thick of the AL wild card hunt and the Boston Red Sox (69-65) a little further behind the pack. The Yankees are the only team in the AL East with a losing record at 65-69, but they are reportedly calling up their No. 2 prospect Jasson Dominguez, a.k.a. “The Martian”, as well as No. 8 prospect Austin Wells. With the team so far out of contention, this is a play for next year.
Related: Baltimore Orioles’ Cole Irwin talks with Sportsnaut about 2023 season
Over in the National League East, it’s the Atlanta Braves leading the way with the best record in all of baseball at 88-45. They could lose all 29 of their remaining games and still finish 14 games above .500. The Philadelphia Phillies are in second in the division, 13.5 games back, and if they keep up at their current pace will finish with 90 wins. In the “Atlanta loses the rest of its games” scenario, the Phillies would win the East by a whopping two games.
The Miami Marlins hold third place at 67-67, with the surprisingly competitive Washington Nationals just 11 games under .500 at 62-73 while going 34-26 since June 24. The New York Mets round out the division at 61-73, which isn’t terribly surprising considering the massive sell-off they had at the MLB trade deadline.
If the standings hold, this would be the first time that the Mets and Yankees both finish in last place in their divisions in the same year. Unless the Yankees climb above .500 over the final month, this will be the first season since 1992 that both New York teams finish with a losing record. The Mets went 72-90 and the Yanks were 76-86 that year.
The West is far from history
The American League West is arguably the most must-watch race over the final month, with three teams separated by one game. The Texas Rangers have led the way most of the season but are the one team facing a deficit in the division as we enter September. Their offense has been struggling lately which has exposed one of their main flaws. The Mariners have been surging, going 21-6 in August, and setting a new franchise record for wins in a month in the process. Not even the 116-win squad in 2001 won 21 games in a month. Then, there’s the reigning champions, the Houston Astros, who find themselves tied atop the division despite having a down year by their own lofty standards.
Related: 5 reasons why the Seattle Mariners are sneaking up in the American League West
The Mariners and Rangers have seven games against one another over the final two weekends of the season, which will not only have huge implications on the MLB Playoff race, but also in the wild card race. Houston gets its chance at the Rangers on the road to start next week, and then a series against the Mariners in Seattle September 25-27.
Over in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been running away with the NL West in the second half by going 32-12, and Mookie Betts’ torrid month of August has been a big reason why. After belting two homers on Thursday night against Atlanta, he has 38 on the season with 11 coming last month. Betts hit a ridiculous .455 with a .516 OBP, drove home 30 runs, and scored 35 times in August.
The Dodgers lead the West by 13.5 games over the second-place Giants. The Diamondbacks entered the second half tied with L.A. atop the division, but a tough skid has them fighting for the final wild card spot. The disappointing San Diego Padres (62-74) are 22 back of the Dodgers, while the Colorado Rockies (49-84) are 34 back. Only Oakland’s 37.5 game deficit in the American League west is larger in all of MLB.
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Things just got interesting in the American League Central
Honestly there wasn’t much going on with the American League Central until Thursday’s waiver deadline, but now it looks as though we may have some competition between the Minnesota Twins (69-65) and Cleveland Guardians (64-70) for that automatic playoff berth for the division winner. Cleveland scooped up Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore from the Los Angeles Angels. With just five games to make up in a bad division, they added reinforcements to give themselves a shot.
Minnesota has the easier strength of schedule between the two clubs, and it’s not like the Guardians have been playing well of late, going 11-16 last month. Acquiring these three players for a small sum of money instead of the prospect capital that it took the Angels just one month ago should provide a boost.
While trading away players at the deadline angered the Guardians’ locker room, this could help on that front, and also help get the fan base excited for the final month. If Cleveland somehow pulls off winning the Central, they’d be guaranteed at least two home games against the final wild-card team, which could off-set the financial cost of acquiring the three pitchers.
Over in the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers (74-59) hold a three-game lead over the Chicago Cubs (71-62), with the Reds (69-66) six back. Milwaukee starts the month off with three against the Phillies, and wraps up the regular season against the Cubs, but in between are a bunch of matchups with teams at or under .500.
Chicago starts things off with a doubleheader against the Reds on Friday to give them four games in three days with their next off day coming on the 14th. They’ll be facing wild-card contenders most of the month before wrapping up with three against Atlanta and then three against the Brewers.
American League wild card and potential first-round matchups
This is where the American League West race becomes very interesting, because as of right now the Astros and Rangers hold the second and third spots with the Toronto Blue Jays looming just 2.5 back. Two of the three teams in the West could end up with wild card berths, with the other winning the division. But the Jays are right there, and the Red Sox (69-65) are around, too. The Rays hold the top spot and a 6.5 game lead for the first position, so they’ll be in the postseason, and they could even end up winning the East outright.
The ideal scenario for most MLB fans would be the Mariners winning the West, the Rangers and Jays securing wild-card spots, and the Astros missing the postseason entirely after a string of deep postseason runs. Most fans like to see some variety in their playoff action. Some may argue they’d like to see Houston bounced from the playoffs, which would also be acceptable, but letting them into the dance also runs the risk of Houston taking home another title.
As things stand right now, the Orioles and Mariners would get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. The teams that win the East and West will receive this honor with the Central’s records lagging behind the pack. In that first round it would be the Twins against the Rangers in Minnesota with the winner facing the Mariners in the ALDS. That leaves the Rays and Astros to face-off in the American League wild card round in Tampa, and a date with the Orioles to follow.
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National League wild card and potential first-round matchups
The Philadelphia Phillies (74-59) currently hold the first wild card spot, and have a firm grasp on it with a 4.5 game lead over the Cubs (71-62), who hold the second wild card. Chicago also holds a 1.5 game lead over the Giants (70-64), who round out the current playoff field. The Arizona Diamondbacks (69-65) are one game back of San Francisco, the Cincinnati Reds (69-66) are a game and a half back, and the Miami Marlins (67-67) are just three behind the Giants.
The Marlins have a tough first half of September coming up, with series against the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, and Braves all in a row. They follow that up with two series against the Mets and wrap up against the Pirates. If they can stay within striking distance for the first two weeks, they could surprise people with a run down the stretch.
Cincinnati has the easiest remaining schedule of the bunch and the seventh easiest in baseball. The Marlins have the fifth toughest. Arizona and San Francisco are in the middle, bordering on the easier side of the field.
The way it would shake out as we enter September would be the Braves and Dodgers receiving byes in the first round. Milwaukee would host the Giants and the winner would face the Dodgers in the NLDS. That leaves the Phillies to host the Cubs with Atlanta looming.
We may think we know what’s going to happen come October, but baseball always finds a way to surprise us each and every year.