If you’re looking for intriguing and important MLB matchups to watch this weekend, the Seattle Mariners at the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays at the Toronto Blue Jays are obvious choices.
Division rivals that know each other well and are still jockeying for playoff positioning. It’s possible the Rays and Jays will meet in Tampa in two weeks to start the first round of the AL playoffs on Oct 3. And it’s likely that one of the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays will be the odd team out in the American League when the playoff picture finalizes.
So, yeah, those are two great series to monitor.
But there’s another one that has my attention — and should have yours: the Milwaukee Brewers at the Miami Marlins for a three-game set starting Friday night.
Seriously.
First, the Brewers likely will clinch their third NL Central crown and fifth playoff berth in six seasons this weekend. People forget how good this club has been recently, primarily because they’ve made an early exit from the playoffs in their last three postseasons. They go four deep in starters this year, however, thanks to lefty Wade Miley, who is slurping from the Fountain of Youth again.
Secondly, I’m a sucker for pitching duels in September and this one has real potential.
Friday’s matchup is former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes against the always enigmatic “Opener.” So, the Brewers have the edge on that one. Saturday, however, features Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 1.89 ERA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.68), and Sunday’s matchup is the criminally underrated Freddy Peralta (12-9, 3.71) against stud-in-waiting Edward Cabrera (6 -7, 4.35).
The Brewers have the second-best starters’ ERA in the NL and the Marlins have the third. Miami hopes that when the playoffs begin, they will be able to use 2022 NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara, who hasn’t pitched since Sept. 3 due to a forearm flexor strain. Alcantara has thrown side sessions recently and would provide a big boost to the rotation (or bullpen) if he is pain-free.
The Marlins are an impossible team to predict. They went 19-8 in June and then were 19-34 in July and August, seemingly falling out of the playoff picture. But they’ve rallied for a 12-7 September that included a sweep of the mighty Atlanta Braves, and series wins against playoff contenders the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. But they also lost two of three to the lifeless New York Mets and three of four to the Brewers.
This series is crucial to the Marlins’ playoff aspirations and could be a preview of the first round of the playoffs if the Marlins claim the sixth seed in the NL.
Don’t sleep on the Toronto Blue Jays
While the American League focus has been on the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East and the three-sided coin flip that is the AL West, the Blue Jays should not be dismissed.
Of the clubs in the AL playoff picture, Toronto may have the most talent. Just look at the names in that lineup and rotation. They have four pitchers that have made at least 30 starts this year, and all have an ERA under 4.00.
They also have an offense that should be so much better with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer. Matt Chapman, etc. That this team is ninth in runs scored and 10th in homers hit in the AL is mindboggling and shows just how underachieving it has been.
That said, there’s always a club that gets hot at the right time and goes on a playoff run. The Jays only had one losing month this year, a disastrous, 11-17 May, and have won 12 of their first 18 in September.
If Toronto holds the fifth spot in the AL, it likely will play the division rival Rays again in the first round of the playoffs – an incredibly familiar opponent. The Rays hold a 4-3 advantage in the series, but they play six more times, including a season-ending series in Toronto.
If the Blue Jays slip to the sixth seed and capture that spot, they will face a Minnesota Twins team that doesn’t have the same quality of roster as Toronto’s. If they win that one, the Blue Jays likely will play the AL West champion. Toronto split the six-game series with Seattle, won four of seven against Houston and dropped six of seven to Texas. The Jays are also a woeful 3-10 against the AL’s likely first seed, the Orioles.
Who can stop the Braves? How about … Arizona?
I was curious to see who among the NL contenders has hung with the Braves this season. I figured there had to be one or two teams that had won the overall season series. That’s how baseball works.
The Chicago Cubs are the only team with a winning record against Atlanta this year, but that comes with an asterisk. The Cubs won two of three at Wrigley in early August and were outscored, 18-14. The two teams have a three-game rematch next week in Atlanta, and depending on that outcome, the Braves could enter the postseason with a winning record against every other potential NL playoff team except … the Arizona Diamondbacks.
For the year, the Braves finished 3-3 against Arizona, winning two of three in Phoenix in June and losing two of three in Atlanta in July. The combined scores were 38-36 in favor of Atlanta, but the Diamondbacks scored five or more runs in four of the six games against the vaunted Braves pitching staff, including 16 runs in a game started by Bryce Elder and lost by closer Raisel Iglesias. These two squads may not meet up in the postseason, but if they do, it might be a little closer than most would predict.
Here are the Braves’ 2023 records against the other potential NL playoff squads: Chicago, 1-2*; Cincinnati, 5-1; Los Angeles, 4-3; Miami, 9-4; Milwaukee, 5-1; Philadelphia, 8-5; San Francisco, 4-2.
Hitting the MLB century mark
Based on projection of the final two weeks, there looks like there will be two teams that hit the 100-win mark in 2023 regular season — the Braves and Baltimore Orioles. Two more that have a shot: the Dodgers and Rays.
If only two do, it would mark the fewest 100-win teams in a full season since 2016, when the 103-win Chicago Cubs were the only team to reach the century mark.
Since moving to Atlanta in 1966, the Braves have won 100 or more regular season games seven other times, including last year. In those seven previous campaigns, the Braves made it to the World Series just once, in 1999, when they were swept by the New York Yankees.
Their two World Series titles in Atlanta came in 2021, when they had 88 regular season wins, and in the truncated 1995 season, when they won 90. They were on pace for 101 wins that year but only played 144 games due to a late start because of the players’ strike.
The Orioles have won 100 games or more five times since moving to Baltimore in 1954. In four of those seasons, the Orioles made the World Series, winning once in 1970. The most recent time the Orioles won 100 regular-season games was in 1980, when they didn’t make the playoffs.
They finished three games behind the New York Yankees in the seven-team AL East, back when only the division winner advanced to the playoffs.
The Orioles, by the way, won 101 total games and lost 223 in the 2018 and 2019 seasons combined. They are currently on pace for 101 wins in 2023. That’s a bit of a turnaround.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.