The Miami Heat remain in pursuit of their first NBA Finals trophy since the 2012-’13 season, but there are significant hurdles in the way. One of them is the new CBA which has caused substantial repercussions league-wide.
NBA teams just received the new CBA on Wednesday, but it hasn’t stopped them from making moves to avoid the luxury tax and second tax apron. Several organizations desperately want to avoid the second tax apron as there are major consequences for going over it.
If an organization is above the apron, it will not have access to its taxpayer mid-level exception, cannot sign buyout players during the season, and cannot take back more money in trades. Plus, if an NBA team is over the second tax apron twice in four years, its first-round pick will drop to the end of the first round.
The restrictions have created panic throughout the league, and the Heat are trying to navigate the new CBA while fielding a competitive roster around Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. It is tough to balance, but one thing remains clear with the 2023 NBA free agency period coming soon.
Miami wants to build a championship-contending roster, and its pursuit of Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard sets the stage for this offseason.
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Miami Heat’s pursuit of Damian Lillard sets the stage for the 2023 NBA offseason
The Heat want Lillard and until a decision is made regarding his future in Portland, there will be little movement from the organization. It doesn’t mean Miami will simply pause its operations; however, there will be no drastic moves that take the team out of the running.
Lillard has given the Trail Blazers some time to prove that next season’s roster will be one that gives him a chance at competing for an NBA championship. If that doesn’t take place, there is hope around the Heat organization that Portland’s superstar point guard with request a trade.
It is no secret that Lillard would have the Heat on his list of preferred trade destinations. There are several reports around the NBA that suggest Miami is either the leader in the clubhouse or one of the only teams that would truly make sense for him.
This is one reason why the Heat will not splurge on free agents outside of the organization when free agency opens on June 30 at 6:00 PM EST. The organization likely wouldn’t pursue many free agents if the connection to Lillard wasn’t present anyway.
The Heat’s only avenue to acquiring free agents, such as Kyrie Irving or James Harden, would be through a sign-and-trade as the organization cannot sign any free agents outright due to its salary cap situation. The only issue is the hard cap that would be established in a potential sign-and-trade.
Miami currently has $176.73 million in salary cap commitments, assuming Jamal Cain and Orlando Robinson sign their qualifying offers, for the 2023-’24 season and the established hard cap would not allow the organization to exceed around $169 million.
With only 11 players under contract, including the injured Victor Oladipo who opted into his $9.45 million player option, it is not realistic for the Heat to pursue this route since they would need to shed a significant amount of salary to even make it work.
Therefore, it is easy to cross Irving, Harden, Fred VanVleet, and others off the list. This is why it’s easy for the Heat to simply wait out the Lillard situation. Outside of trading players away, there are very few ways that Miami can realistically upgrade the roster.
Right now, the situation for the Heat can be characterized as “Lillard or bust.” The organization won’t put itself in a situation where it doesn’t have the pieces to acquire Lillard because of a different move that may not be as impactful.
The Heat are going to be patient and watch the Trail Blazers try to form a winning roster around its superstar point guard. If not, they will be waiting to pounce and try to form a “Big 3” reminiscent of the days with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
Until the situation with Lillard is resolved, there will be little to no movement for outside players. In the meantime, the Heat will continue to talk to their own free agents and look to retain one key player in particular.
Related: Damian Lillard has ‘serious interest’ in joining the Miami Heat
Latest updates and analysis on Miami Heat guard Gabe Vincent’s upcoming free agency
Gabe Vincent, the starting point guard during Miami’s run to the 2023 NBA Finals, is set to become an unrestricted free agent on June 30 and should be receiving a decent payday. There are several teams that will pursue Vincent’s services and the Heat will be one of them.
According to the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson, the Heat want to re-sign Vincent no matter what happens with Lillard moving forward. The 27-year-old guard averaged 12.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 40.2% from the field during the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Vincent’s value could be as high as $10-15 million per year which would push Miami into the second tax apron barring any other major moves to shed salary. Due to the current roster construction, the Heat are expected to enter the dreaded second tax apron this offseason.
The second tax apron is set at $182.5 million which means the organization currently has around $6 million before it passes the threshold. Miami would prefer to stay below it but that will prove to be difficult.
It would require significant movement and sacrifices as there are still players to be signed moving forward. Jaime Jaquez Jr., the Heat’s first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, is set to have a $3.5 million cap hit but is not included in the cap commitments for the 2023-’24 season yet.
This is part of the reason why there is concern that Vincent won’t re-sign with the Heat for the foreseeable future. Miami plans to make an offer but how much is it willing to give the upcoming free agent with tax concerns on the table?
From a roster standpoint, the Heat should absolutely lock down Vincent on a long-term deal. The future of the team’s guard position is very uncertain outside of Jaquez and Tyler Herro so adding Vincent to the mix would help stabilize it moving forward.
Plus, if the Heat did come away with Lillard during the 2023 NBA offseason, Vincent would be a very good bench option and still be a perfect fit. Miami is looking to make a big move for Portland’s superstar but either outcome would still give Vincent a good role on the team.
The Heat will push to have both Lillard and Vincent on the roster while dealing with everything else at a later date. A move for the Trail Blazers’ point guard would make Miami’s tax situation moot as it would simply go all-in at that point.
If “Plan A” falls through the cracks, there could be some tough decisions ahead for the Heat that link back to the money aspect of the organization.
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Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo’s contracts create intrigue for the Miami Heat
Kyle Lowry has one year remaining on his three-year contract with the Heat; however, there is a possibility that he may not be on the team next season. Miami was considering the idea of waiving Lowry by using the waive-and-stretch provision but that option doesn’t appear to be viable now.
Let’s just say the Heat surprised everyone and move forward with such a move. It would push the 37-year-old point guard’s cap hit over the next three seasons at $9.89 million instead of eating the entire $29.68 million during the 2023-’24 season. This would be a drastic move by Miami’s front office but one that saves money overall.
The Heat’s salary cap commitments for next year would drop to around $157 million and allow them to easily re-sign Vincent while avoiding the second tax apron. It would also give the organization its taxpayer mid-level exception, the ability to sign buyout players, and more.
However, there would be several consequences of using the waive-and-stretch mechanism on Lowry after next year. The Heat would have a $9.89 million dead cap hit for the following two seasons and impact the overall roster by not using his expiring contract to gain more assets.
To make a long story short, it would be a money-saving move that hurts Miami’s ability to put out a better roster than the 2022-’23 season. The Heat shouldn’t go this route for this reason as it would be destructive to the idea of going all-in on winning an NBA championship and it looks like they realize the same thing.
Lowry isn’t the only Heat player that has an intriguing contract situation either. As stated above, Oladipo opted into his $9.45 million player option on Tuesday afternoon. This was expected as the 31-year-old guard is set to possibly miss most of the 2023-’24 season after he tore his left patellar tendon in the NBA playoffs.
If Miami isn’t banking on Oladipo returning to a significant role when healed from his knee injury, it would make sense to use the waive-and-stretch provision or trade him away in a bigger deal. The Heat would lower his $9.45 million cap hit to a $3.15 million dead cap hit for the next three years if they decided on the former.
This would give Miami more tax relief and extra flexibility to re-sign Vincent and other in-house free agents, such as Kevin Love. It appears to be more likely than Lowry based on Oladipo’s injury and role if he were to be medically cleared.
Both players will continue to be connected in trade talks due to their contracts. It is no secret that Miami wants to improve its team. The two players’ expiring contracts are valuable in trade negotiations with other teams.
The situation surrounding Lowry and Oladipo will be one to monitor as the Heat move forward into the 2023 NBA offseason. Despite the organization’s efforts, it won’t be able to retain everyone from last season’s NBA Finals team.
Related: Miami Heat pursuing star players after loss in NBA Finals, 3 realistic trades
Miami Heat’s upcoming free agency situation with Max Strus
Max Strus is another upcoming free agent from the Heat that is going to receive a major payday; however, it is not expected to be with Miami. Strus has been linked to several teams, such as the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic, with Indiana reportedly considering an offer that is around $16 million per year.
The 27-year-old guard has spent the last three seasons in Miami and while the team would like to have him back, it appears to be unrealistic due to the price tag. Strus will certainly have options available to him but Vincent is the priority right now.
The Heat have three-point shooting insurance with Duncan Robinson making major strides during the NBA playoffs so Strus’ expected departure would not be too detrimental to the rotation. Plus, Miami has signed several undrafted free agents that specialize in three-point shooting, such as Washignton St. guard Justin Powell.
The former DePaul guard is one of many undrafted players who have gone through the Heat’s development program en route to making a name for themselves in the league. Robinson is the main player after he signed a five-year, $90 million contract during the 2021 NBA offseason.
Luckily, Miami has also prepared for Strus’ departure by drafting Jaquez to help solidify the team’s depth at the guard position. It won’t be the Heat’s only move for backcourt help but it is certainly a good start to add a young, NBA-ready player.
Related: Breaking down Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat’s 2023 undrafted free agents
Free agents and trades the Miami Heat should consider during the 2023 NBA offseason
The Heat will remain at the table for Lillard’s services until further notice; however, there are some other options out there if the team strikes out. Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George would likely be the next best option if Lillard decides to stay put.
Of course, this would depend on whether the Clippers want to move George or keep him paired with Kawhi Leonard and company. If Los Angles decides it wants to move on from the 33-year-old forward, it would make sense for Miami to pursue a deal.
Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine is another possible trade target but he has a high asking price and would cost more money long-term, which appears to be a concern for Heat owner Micky Arison based on the Bradley Beal situation. The Heat might be better off keeping Herro and their remaining assets for a different move down the road.
Outside of Lillard, LaVine, and possibly George, there is not much else publicly available right now. The Heat would likely pursue smaller moves and not blow up the team unless there is a deal that truly makes sense overall.
Miami could use Lowry and/or Robinson’s contract in a trade to target several players. For example, Clippers forwards Norman Powell and Robert Convington could be a starting point as it would help solidify the Heat’s rotation.
If a trade doesn’t materialize and the Heat shockingly use the waive-and-stretch provision on Lowry, there are some free agent point guards that would make sense for the team, including Dennis Smith Jr., Jevon Carter, and Kendrick Nunn.
Smith and Carter would be good fits while Nunn used to play in Miami before he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers during the 2021 NBA offseason. All three players would represent a solid backup behind Vincent if he re-signed with the team.
As for other free agents, Josh Richardson, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Jeff Green, Terrence Ross, and T.J. Warren would make sense if they were willing to compete for a championship and sign the veteran’s minimum. However, it might be difficult to convince some of them to take less money.
Maybe, the addition of Lillard or another star next to Butler and Adebayo would make the Heat a premier destination for veterans to take a minimum deal. It all points back to Miami’s pursuit of Lillard at the end of the day.
The Heat need some help to push themselves from Eastern Conference finals champions to NBA Finals champions. Lillard would move the needle but if Miami doesn’t land him, it needs to be proactive and find a way to improve the team.