The Los Angeles Dodgers have ruled the baseball headlines for the past week. In an offseason when news has been slow-moving, the Dodgers went out and signed the game’s best player in Shohei Ohtani.
About an hour after his introductory press conference, reports also surfaced that the team had traded for one of the better starters in baseball in Tyler Glasnow, formerly of the Tampa Bay Rays, contingent on him signing an extension with the club.
That extension was agreed to on Friday at four years, $110 million, plus the one year of team control that he already had at $25 million. So, L.A. will have Glasnow in their rotation for five years and $135 million.
This team already won 100 games last season and have added the best bat in the game in Ohtani (who will also pitch in 2025), and top-of-the-rotation arm Tyler Glasnow to pair with a returning Walker Buehler. This team is loaded, and they may not be done yet.
So how can you stop them next season?
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Los Angeles Dodgers have talent, and injury concerns
While the Dodgers won 100 games last season, they weren’t considered a force heading into the postseason. They were dealing with a number of injuries, which led to starts from a not-quite-right Clayton Kershaw, rookie Bobby Miller, and the home run prone Lance Lynn. It wasn’t the best three players the team had under contract, and they were swept out of the postseason by the Arizona Diamondbacks, who went on to represent the National League in the World Series.
With Buehler and Glasnow atop the rotation, the ceiling is pretty high for what this team can do, but there is also a decent amount of injury risk involved. Buehler is coming back from Tommy John, which can present some problems to overcome, like an innings limit. The Dodgers will have to keep a close eye on him to make sure he’s ready for October baseball. Glasnow threw a career-high 120 innings in 2023, topping 100 innings for just the second time in eight seasons. Making sure that he’s right heading into October is another obstacle.
In 2024, the Dodgers’ depth is going to be important, and right now they have some talented arms in the minor leagues, but it can be tough to rely on young pitchers in the postseason. They’ll need to build in a few more options to reach the heights people are expecting of them, and also hope that their top players are healthy for the postseason.
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L.A. power outage?
In 2023, the Dodgers had the fourth and sixth best hitters in baseball in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They had the third-best lineup in the game. Los Angeles also put up a total of six runs in their NLDS defeat, plating two per game. They were outscored 19-6.
The Atlanta Braves had an all-time great offense during the regular season and were held to eight runs in four games against the Philadelphia Phillies. That’s also two runs per game.
Obviously, adding Ohtani helps put another excellent bat into the lineup, but if he struggles like Betts and Freeman did in October (1-for-21 combined), then nothing really changes on that front next season. Ohtani has also never played in the postseason, so there is no guarantee that he’ll thrive in that environment. The chances of Betts and Freeman struggling that badly again probably aren’t high, but it’s not impossible. Ohtani has been waiting for his chance on the big stage, and he’s the kind of player that backs up his talk.
In short, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to the postseason. There will be years when they’re all slugging the team forward to the next round, but others where the opposing pitchers just have their number. That’s part of the beauty of baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers expectations and defense
The first two options are somewhat out of the opposing team’s control. But there are still flaws on the Dodgers that can be exploited. While they have three of the best hitters in baseball and their lineup overall was the third-best in the game, Gavin Lux is a question mark as he returns from injury.
Chris Taylor is entering his age 33 season and has seen his production fall from where it was two seasons ago. Max Muncy has been a walks machine (96th percentile) but is prone to strikeouts and whiffs. If you have the arsenal to beat him in the zone, do it. Jason Heyward had a huge bounce back season last year, but can the same be expected out of him again in 2024?
If everyone is hitting at the same time, this team is going to be tough to deal with on through nine. Yet, if some of these bats aren’t producing as expected, then there could still be a bit of a built-in breather for opposing pitchers in the bottom of the order. Gavin Lux may end up being a linchpin to the Dodgers season. If he returns with a vengeance, then the rest of the league will be on notice.
The other thing to keep an eye on is the Los Angeles defense, which ranked in the bottom third of baseball in 2023. Max Muncy was the team’s regular third baseman and logged -8 Outs Above Average per Baseball Savant. Among third basemen, he ranked 33rd in this category. With Ohtani at DH and Mookie Betts moving to second full-time, there isn’t really a spot other than third to get Muncy regular playing time, so he figures to hold that position.
Team defense may not show up on a nightly basis, but it can sure change the outcome of a short series real quick. Muncy’s 16 errors ranked sixth-highest in baseball.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a really good team. Right now it’s looking like they’ll win the off-season, and that may not be a good thing. The New York Mets won the off-season last year and missed the playoffs in 2023. The Padres have won a couple of off-seasons in recent memory and have one deep postseason run to show for it. Then again, the Texas Rangers won the offseason ahead of the 2022 season by signing Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, and Corey Seager, and they just won the World Series.
The Dodgers will be pretty good in 2024, but they may still be beatable.