Kyle Larson may only have two victories and sit ninth in the NASCAR point standings below RFK Racing driver Brad Keselowski; however, there are several reasons to suggest that Larson will be breaking through in a major way sometime soon.
Let’s take a deep dive into Larson’s success during the 2023 NASCAR season to this point and explain why he is the favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship.
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Kyle Larson’s season has represented incredible speed and horrible luck
Larson only has two wins, five top-5 finishes, five top-10 finishes, and a 17.1 average finishing position through 13 races but the statistics are very deceiving for the No. 5 team as they are poised to go on a major run.
Starting at the Daytona 500, Larson was in position to redeem himself after running out of fuel while leading the 2017 Daytona 500 on the final lap but it just wasn’t meant to be as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. claimed the victory. In fact, he would not even finish the race and claimed 18th place.
Then, Larson went to Auto Club Speedway looking forward to one of his best tracks. Unfortunately for him, a mechanical issue ruined his day and he finished in 29th place. Despite his luck, Larson was one of the fastest cars on the race track after fixing the issue.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway was firmly in Larson’s grasp as he had a commanding lead; however, a late-race caution gave William Byron the opportunity to pounce and he finished in second place despite a strong car.
NASCAR then went to Phoenix Raceway and while Larson had a second to third-place car, he found himself leading on the overtime restart before finishing in fourth place. It simply wasn’t enough as Byron won yet again.
Richmond Raceway finally represented his first victory as his pit crew gave him the lead during the final round of pit stops. It was a good bit of luck after Larson suffered so much horrendous luck to start the 2023 season.
However, Bristol Dirt ended up being disappointing for Larson as he wrecked out due to Ryan Preece. The Hendrick Motorsports driver dominated Stage 1 but never got a chance to return to the front and finished in 35th place.
Next, Larson took advantage of his two fresh tires and track position to have a four-second plus victory at Martinsville Speedway. The venue is one of Larson’s worst tracks on the NASCAR schedule so it was a very notable win for him.
Dover Motor Speedway shared a common theme with Bristol Dirt following his second victory. Larson had the fastest car in Stage 1 but was badly damaged after Ross Chastain punted Brennan Poole up the track. He would then finish in 32nd place.
Larson looked to redeem himself at Kansas Speedway in an intense battle with Denny Hamlin but finished in second place after leading at the white flag. The Hendrick Motorsports driver hit the wall off Turn 2 and Hamlin turned him back into it.
Finally, Darlington Raceway ended up having the same fate as Las Vegas. Larson was leading late and cruising to a victory before a caution. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion had a good stop but found himself in 20th place after Chastain wrecked the two of them on a restart.
Needless to say, it has been a very eventful season for Larson to this point; however, the statistics do not show the story of why Kyle Larson is undoubtedly the favorite to claim the trophy at the end of the 2023 season at Phoenix Raceway.
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Why Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2023
Larson may not have the most wins, top-5 finishes, top-10 finishes, or best average finishing position but none of that matters when looking at the big picture. The No. 5 team is poised for a major breakout that is similar to 2021 when he won 10 races and the title.
Through 13 races, Larson ranks second in most laps led behind Byron by only 14 circuits. It is one of the few statistics that truly shows the dominance of Larson to start the 2023 NASCAR season.
The driver of the No. 5 car for Hendrick Motorsports could easily have four wins if not for cautions at Las Vegas and Darlington. That does not even include the mechanical issue at Auto Club, the wreck at Bristol Dirt, and the wreck at Dover.
Granted, a driver will not win every single race but Larson has been incredibly fast almost every weekend. In fact, he has the most fastest laps of any NASCAR driver throughout the season despite only completing the 25th most laps out of the 33 full-time drivers.
This is not to say Larson will be able to reach 10 victories like the did during the 2021 season; however, it should not be surprising to see him get close or regain his dominant form from that campaign.
The evidence is present. Sure, Larson has made his own mistakes but for the most part, it has been issues not of his doing on the race track. That is why a lucky Larson would be very dangerous to the rest of the field.
If every NASCAR driver reached their peak, Larson’s would stand out as the best one this year. The entire field saw what he was capable of during the 2021 season and understand how the No. 5 team can run on a weekly basis.
If Hendrick Motorsports continues to bring fast race cars each week, Larson’s luck will eventually turn around and it will turn into a hot streak. The 30-year-old driver has been in a prime position to win many times and that gives him confidence.
Larson will have to battle Byron, who is in the midst of a breakout season, Chastain, who is running well each week, and Bell, who has been very consistent each week. There is no doubt about that fact.
It is going to be a challenge for the No. 5 team but the field needs to keep an eye on them. Everything suggests that Kyle Larson will be going on a hot streak soon and that should be concerning to many drivers.
In the meantime, whether you are watching it live or looking for how to watch NASCAR on TV or another streaming platform, Sportsnaut has you covered for the upcoming weekend at North Wilkesboro Speedway!
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