The Kansas City Royals finished with a 56-106 record last season, 31 games out of first place in the AL Central. Even with the second-worst record in baseball, the Royals hold the sixth overall selection in the MLB Draft, slipping four spots, thanks to the Draft Lottery.
While their overall record wasn’t great, the Royals played a lot better in the second half of the season, posting a 30-41 record, good for a .423 winning percentage — or a 68-win pace. Part of the reason for the turnaround was 23-year-old Bobby Witt Jr., who hit .301 with a .343 on-base percentage (OBP), six triples, and 16 home runs, beating out his first-half totals in each category in 22 fewer games. Witt hit 30 total homers and stole 49 bags in 2023. The Royals as a team went from the worst offense (78 wRC+, 100 is league average) to 15th (98 wRC+).
The other reason for the club’s turnaround was that they may have landed an ace in the Aroldis Chapman deal with the Texas Rangers at the deadline. Cole Ragans, who made 12 starts with the Royals after being used solely as a reliever with Texas, posted a 2.64 ERA with Kansas City with a 1.07 WHIP. His ERA in the second half ranked seventh in MLB, two of whom won the Cy Young awards in Blake Snell (1.54) and Gerrit Cole (2.35). His strikeout rate (31.1%) also ranked fifth, just behind Tyler Glasnow.
The Royals have some young talent that they’re building around, and they’ve spent the off-season bringing in free agents to help the team win now. Let’s take a look at some of the moves the team has made, their outlook for 2024, and one player to keep an eye on this season.
Kansas City Royals additions and subtractions
The Kansas City Royals have been busy this off-season, which is refreshing after a down year. While the additions they’ve made haven’t been at the top of the free agent market, they have moved the needle a little bit, and in the AL Central, if a team spends a little money, they could have a shot. The additions could also have something to do with the team trying to put their best foot forward while they attempt to secure public funding for their new ballpark project. The public will have their say on the matter at the ballot box in April.
In terms of subtractions, Zack Greinke put up the highest fWAR last season at 1.1 wins. Only reliever Josh Staumont (0.2) and outfielder Edward Olivarez (0.4) produced better than replacement level numbers. Of the eight players that have departed, only a total of 0.6 wins will be lost.
As far as the additions go, starter Seth Lugo (three years, $45 million with opt-out after year two) is the big one with a projected 2.1 fWAR for the 2024 season. The Royals also added Michael Wacha (1.6) to help stabilize the rotation. They went all-in on relievers, though, acquiring Nick Anderson in a trade with the Atlanta Braves, then signing Chris Stratton and Will Smith to one-year deals. Smith has been on each of the last three World Series winners, so watch out, world! The Royals also added Kyle Wright in a separate trade with Atlanta that cost them Jackson Kowar, but Wright is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery in October.
Kansas City selected Matt Sauer in the Rule 5 Draft, which means he’ll have to be on the Royals 26-man roster all season or be offered back to the team he came from, in this case, the New York Yankees. The 25-year-old right-hander held a 3.42 ERA in Double-A last season across 681/3 innings. 13 of his 14 appearances were starts last season, but he could begin the year in the bullpen as the long man.
Garrett Hampson was added for one year and $2 million after hitting .276 with a .349 OBP with the Miami Marlins last season, finishing just below league average at the plate. He also produced a career-high WAR of 1.3 in just 98 games, and he played every position outside of pitcher, catcher, and first base. They also added Mike Trout lookalike Hunter Renfroe on a one year deal for $5.5 million that includes a player option for 2025 at $7.5 million. His defense in right field has been below league average the past three seasons, but he has an arm that ranks in the 91st percentile and the ability to slug 20 homers even in a down year at the plate.
Recently the Royals have added second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier and traded for relief pitcher John Schreiber.
Overall, the additions that the Royals have made combine for a projected WAR total of 6.5. If you subtract the WAR that they lost in their departures, you get 5.9, which just so happens to be a higher WAR total that Shohei Ohtani is projected for in 2024 with his bat. For those keeping score at home, the Royals added a Trout lookalike and an aggregate Ohtani.
Kansas City Royals 2024 outlook
In most cases, the work that the Royals have done this winter would be commendable, but likely wouldn’t have much of an impact on where they’ll finish in 2024. That may still be the case, but with the Guardians and Twins not spending on free agents due to their RSN uncertainty, the path to the top of the Central may be a little clearer. To secure a division title, the Kansas City would need further improvement from Bobby Witt, for the bullpen to come together quickly, and for Brady Singer to continue to improve upon his 5.12 ERA in the second half of 2023.
This would also mean that Cole Ragans has to continue his second half trend of being a legitimate ace as well. If things break right and you squint a little bit, the Royals could be in for a big improvement over their 56-win campaign in 2023. Even a 20 win leap doesn’t quite get them to .500, however. Minnesota, Detroit, and Cleveland would have to all take a step back, while nearly everything goes right for the Royals, even with the addition of Frankenstein Ohtani.
Kansas City will undoubtedly sneak up on some teams in 2024, but at best they likely still end up in third place in the division.
Kansas City Royals player to watch in 2024
Royals fans likely already know about him, but the average baseball fan isn’t familiar with Vinnie Pasquantino. He’s played in a total of 133 games with Kansas City over the past two seasons, put up a combined 122 OPS+, can hit for power and average, doesn’t whiff, and struck out just 11.9% of the time last season, which was roughly half of the league average.
The 26-year-old first baseman underwent shoulder surgery in June and missed the rest of the season, but should be ready to go when camp opens next month.
Last season he hit .247 with a .324 OBP and nine homers in 260 plate appearances, but his expected stats had him at a .282 xBA (expected batting average), which would have put him right in line with his rookie campaign when he also held a .383 OBP. In his first full season in the big leagues, Pasquantino is bound to produce. He doesn’t quite punish the ball like a full-fledged slugger with a barrel% of 7.5 and an average exit velocity of 89.3 miles per hour, but he finds the sweet spot of the bat 37.8% of the time and when he swings he doesn’t miss often.
The tools are there for him to be an impact bat. If he can find the barrel more often and hit the ball a little harder consistently, then he could be a real menace to opposing pitchers. It may all depend upon how that shoulder is feeling this season.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.