Five teams on upset alert in NFL Week 11

One of the things we love about football is that it is just full of surprises. This is why we can confidently say upsets are inevitable in NFL Week 11.

Can the Dallas Cowboys continue their winning ways at home against a scrappy Baltimore Ravens club? Will the Los Angeles Rams have success or fail miserably in Jared Goff’s first start against the Miami Dolphins at home?

We’ll take a look at these games, along with three more, to determine which favored teams are on upset alert in Week 11.

Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada

Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

This is finally the week where Tony Romo supporters will have some ground to stand on as they call for him to return to the starting lineup. To this point, rookie Dak Prescott has given the Cowboys no reason to pull him from the starting lineup. But he’ll give them some pause, at least, this weekend against the Ravens.

Baltimore’s defense has been amazing this year. It is currently the top-ranked unit in all of football, giving up just 281.6 yards and 17.8 points per game.

In particular, it is adept at shutting down the run. Teams are averaging just 71.3 yards per game on the ground at a clip of 3.3 yards per carry and have managed just four touchdowns all year long.

Cowboys fans and fans of Ezekiel Elliott will point to the Green Bay game in which he went off for 157 rushing yards against what was then the league’s best run defense. But that unit was just a paper tiger. The Ravens are legit. And if Elliott doesn’t have a big game, then you can expect Prescott to struggle against a Ravens pass defense that has forced 11 interceptions already.

On the other side, look for Joe Flacco to have a big game against a Dallas secondary that has been good, but not great, this year. He’s had a rough year so far with nine interceptions and just nine touchdowns. But he has a bit of extra motivation this week with a chance to respond to Ray Lewis saying he’s not passionate about the game.

The Cowboys are on a serious roll, with eight straight wins. They might win their ninth. But it shouldn’t come as a shock whatsoever if the Ravens knock them off their perch this Sunday in Arlington.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Let’s be honest. The Colts are just not very good. They have the potential to win every week, simply because quarterback Andrew Luck has not yet been ruined by Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. He’s a special player who has the talent to carry his team to victory on any given Sunday.

But the Colts haven’t strung together two wins in a row once this year. Thanks to a 28th-ranked defense that gives up more than 400 yards and 28 points per game, Indy is losing more than it wins this year.

Meanwhile, Tennessee comes into the game with a real chance to make a big move in the AFC South and with one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Houston Texans have remarkably won six games this year despite Brock Osweiler’s poor play. They face the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City on Monday night and will likely lose. A Titans win on Sunday would pull them even in the win column with six weeks remaining in the season.

Tennessee also features a defense that has gotten after opposing quarterbacks with regularity. With 28 sacks this year, the Titans rank No. 5 in the NFL and pose a significant threat to Luck Sunday as he works behind a porous offensive line.

We’re absolutely expecting the Titans to pull out a tough road win here to move one step closer to the division lead.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

These two teams come together in Cincinnati on cold streaks. The Bills have lost three games in a row to tough opponents while the Bengals are limping into this one having lost or tied four out of their last five games. Something has to give.

We’re expecting Buffalo’s defense to step up in a huge way to render Cincinnati’s offense ineffective. The Bills are the best in the NFL at putting quarterbacks on their behind. Look for Andy Dalton to turn the ball over and have an overall rough afternoon as he gets pummeled by Buffalo’s front seven.

Jeremy Hill might have a big day, but then again so could LeSean McCoy for the Bills. Both teams run the ball well and don’t exactly shut it down.

The key to victory for the underdog Bills will be the play of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He’s been tremendous this year when pressured, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions in those situations. We’re expecting him to make a couple big connections deep down the field en route to leading a big win for the Bills on the road this Sunday.

Miami Dolphins (-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams

It’s easy to imagine Jared Goff will have a rough outing in his first NFL start Sunday at home against the surging Dolphins, winners of four straight. After all, even the Rams are reportedly concerned he’s not ready for the spotlight, despite assurances that the offense will not be simplified for the rookie.

It doesn’t help matters that the Rams have been terrible at running the ball this year. Second-year running back Todd Gurley has not had a chance to make headway very often, getting hit at or before the line of scrimmage far too often.

That said, the Rams have won four games this year, despite now-benched Case Keenum’s turnovers and awful late-game mistakes. They’ve won four games because they feature one of the best defenses in the NFL. Especially through the air, the Rams are downright dominant.

While Miami’s offensive line has come together brilliantly to give the Dolphins a potent rushing attack, we’re expecting Aaron Donald and Co. to dominate the line of scrimmage.

In a defensive battle, the rookie quarterback must play well or the Rams will lose. And while he wasn’t exactly a model of poise in the preseason, perhaps nine games on the bench has helped him get used to how fast things develop in the NFL.

Los Angeles is a dangerous team. If Goff can play within the flow of the offense, takes the checkdown under pressure and hits some big plays downfield, then the Rams will win.

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins (-3)

There can be no doubt the Packers are in crisis management mode after dropping their third game in a row last weekend against the Titans in blowout fashion. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers called his team out after the loss in a big way.

“There has to be that healthy fear as a player that if you don’t do your job they’ll get rid of you,” said Rodgers, per Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “I think we’ve all got to go back and the urgency’s got to pick up, the focus has got to pick up … we’ve all got to play better, and that starts with me.”

Interestingly, Rodgers is facing criticism like never before as his leadership has been questioned by a former disgruntled tight end and none other than Brett Favre (more on that here).

Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been great of late, either. Dealing with multiple injuries on this side of the ball, the Packers have given an average of 37 points per game during the losing streak.

Meanwhile, Washington comes into this game with a huge win against the Minnesota Vikings last weekend.

So why are we picking Green Bay to potentially upset Washington? Quite simply because Rodgers has the ability to carry the Packers to victory and has every motivation to do so. He’s been quite vocal about his team’s need for accountability, and despite leadership questions we’re expecting his teammates to respond to his latest call to action.