The Pittsburgh Steelers and their long-time head coach, Mike Tomlin, might have reached a crossroads.
Following the Steelers’ disappointing 30-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15, all eyes are now on Tomlin and his future with one of the NFL’s most stable and successful franchises.
Once hailed for his fast rise to prominence, including winning a Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach, Mike Tomlin is now under scrutiny. His future in Pittsburgh faces an uncertainty unfamiliar to both him and a franchise known for winning six Lombardi trophies and having uncommon loyalty and stability within its front office.
Why is it a shock to question whether Mike Tomlin is in danger of being fired?
Steelers’ stability at head coach is unprecedented
To understand how the Steelers have responded to Mike Tomlin’s tenure, we must consider the franchise’s history of coaching stability. Since 1969, the Steelers have only had three head coaches in a sport and league known for frequent turnover — especially at head coach.
The Las Vegas Raiders, by comparison, have had 10 head coaches (including those with the interim tag) since Tomlin took the helm in Pittsburgh for the 2007 season.
This stability is rooted in the owners — the Rooney family — and their team philosophy that values long-term vision and consistency. Tomlin follows in the footsteps of Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher, who both set standards by winning five Super Bowls during their two tenures combined. The Rooneys have operated their franchise much like the standard set at the dawn of the NFL — as a family-run business, just like the proverbial “mom-and-pop” shop.
Jarrett Bailey, who covers the NFL for USA Today and is the deputy editor at Behind The Steel Curtain, a news website covering the team, said the Steelers just aren’t adapting to the modern realities of the NFL. Bailey was clear when asked why, despite the overwhelming drop-off in the team’s performance under Mike Tomlin, they haven’t moved on.
“Because they’re patient to a fault, and honestly, they’re complacent,” Bailey said. “They pat themselves on the back for nine-win seasons and being in the playoff hunt rather than being actual Super Bowl threats. They aren’t aggressive, and they don’t adjust to the times.”
The numbers appear to support what Bailey asserts. Once perennial championship contenders, the Steelers and Mike Tomlin have failed to win a playoff game since 2016 and have just three postseason wins since 2010.
Mike Tomlin’s fast start and recent struggles
Mike Tomlin’s initial five seasons as head coach were marked by a combination of unbridled energy and regular-season and postseason success. Taking charge in 2007, he guided the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory during the 2008 season, solidifying his reputation as one of the league’s top young coaches. During those early years, Pittsburgh was consistently a playoff team and notched three AFC North championships in his first four seasons.
Yet, in the past five seasons, Tomlin’s teams have just one AFC North title and have failed to win a playoff game. The Steelers have just two playoff wins in seven seasons, in stark contrast to the glory days of Tomlin’s early career. The Steelers have also been plagued by fast starts and late-season collapses. In 2023, the Steelers started off 6-3 and have fallen to .500 at 7-7 after Saturday’s loss.
To put it into perspective: four former head coaches in the NFL — Jason Garrett (Dallas – fired after 2019), Dan Quinn (Atlanta – fired in 2020), Doug Marrone (Jacksonville -fired after 2020), and Bill O’Brien (Houston – fired in 2020) — all have more postseason wins since 2017 than Tomlin.
Yes, Tomlin’s career record of 170-100-2 is impressive. But in a city that has seen its team win six Super Bowls since the 1970s, it’s not about regular-season wins. It’s about competing for championships.
Colts loss could be turning point
The Steelers’ loss to the Colts magnified the struggles they have faced recently under Tomlin’s leadership. Turnovers, unforced errors, penalties, and an inability to adjust their game plan all doomed Pittsburgh in an important game to remain in the middle of the tight AFC playoff race.
The Steelers dropped to the 11th seed and have just an 8-percent chance of now making the postseason. If they do miss the playoffs, it will be the fourth time in the past six seasons under Tomlin that Pittsburgh will be eliminated from the postseason.
“Let’s be honest. We’re a fundamentally poor football group right now,” Tomlin said following the Colts loss. “We’re playing losing football. I take responsibility for that. By losing football I mean we’re just not doing fundamental things well enough. We’re not. We’re turning the ball over. We’re highly penalized. We don’t play good in situations. So, I’m just acknowledging that.”
This is far from Mike Tomlin’s first collapse down the stretch
— Jarrett Bailey (@JBaileyNFL) December 17, 2023
-2009: 6-2 ➡️ 9-7 (missed playoffs)
-2018: 7-2-1 ➡️ 9-6-1 (missed playoffs)
-2019: 8-5 ➡️ 8-8 (missed playoffs)
-2020: 11-0➡️ 12-4 (lost WC round)
-2023: 7-4 ➡️ 7-7 (?) pic.twitter.com/0MUdk2p0o5
The Steelers started the game on the right foot, racing to a 13-0 lead. But that would be the last lead they’d have as the Colts, led by their backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, quickly put up 14 points before halftime to take the lead and never looked back.
The once-mighty Steelers’ defense gave up 170 yards on the ground and continued to struggle in all phases of the game. The offense sputtered so badly that Tomlin benched starter Mitch Trubisky for Mason Rudolph, but it didn’t help.
The mistakes and self-destruction seen in Indianapolis have become recurring themes in recent weeks, indicating patterns in Tomlin’s coaching approach. Recurring questions about Tomlin’s ability to adapt to current NFL offensive trends, problems with player development, and the organization’s lack of effectiveness in drafting young players are why the Steelers continue to struggle.
Is the patience with Tomlin at an end?
No one knows what owner Art Rooney II is thinking about Tomlin and his future in Pittsburgh. The owner, the last time he spoke about Tomlin in January, supported his coach and seemed unmoved by recent failures because he had seen progress last season.
“I think the one thing I look at in terms of the job that coach does is does the team get better over the course of the season,” Rooney said then. “And we clearly did that (in 2022). I don’t really evaluate Mike on anything other than I’m glad he’s our coach. Hopefully, he’ll be our coach into the future. I think he gives us a chance to win year in, year out and puts us in a position to win a championship.”
Rooney’s statement came after the Steelers rallied to win four straight to end last season, still missing the playoffs. This season, the Steelers are struggling down the stretch, including an extended losing streak, uncertainty at quarterback, and a defense that’s not cutting it. Things seem to be spiraling, and it’s unknown if the organization and its owner could do the unthinkable in Pittsburgh and fire the man they’ve called coach for 17 seasons.
Fans have turned on Tomlin and it appears players like George Pickens and Dionte Johnson are often putting forward less than 100 percent on the field. There are troubling signs Tomlin could be losing his grip on his team.
Rooney will have a tough choice to make this offseason. If he chooses to stay with Tomlin, he’ll have to answer questions about why he should stick with a coach who continues to move the franchise further away from, rather than closer to, another long-awaited trip to the Super Bowl.