5 MLB managers already on the hot seat

The baseball season is just a little more than a month old. It’s way too early to think about which MLB managers are on the hot seat and in danger of being fired, right? Well, not quite.

It might seem early, but consider this. In 2015, four MLB managers were replaced during the season. Ron Roenicke, Mike Redmond and Bud Black were all fired. Meanwhile, Ryne Sandberg resigned with the worst-record in baseball.

All of those managers were replaced before July 1. Two of them, Roenicke and Redmond, were fired in May.

It might be early, but to paraphrase Yogi Berra, it can get late early for some skippers. Who are the five MLB managers that already find themselves on the hot seat?

Fredi Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves

We start with a manager whose place on the hot seat is already known. Why is Gonzalez on the hot seat? Well, the numbers tell that story.

Gonzalez might be 432-405 as the Braves’ manager. That might look good, but recency bias tells us another story. The Braves boast a 153-198 record since the start of the 2014 season.

Atlanta went 65-97 in 2015, but that included a 42-42 start. In the final 78 games of the 2015 campaign, the Braves were 25-53. That’s a .321 winning percentage.

Over a full season, a .321 winning percentage will earn a 52-110 record.

Since 1900, only 10 teams have lost 110-plus games in a season. Unbelievably, we’re not even done.

The 2016 Braves are 7-20. That puts them on a 42-120 pace.

If you’re not a numbers fan, let’s put it this way. Dating back to the second half of last season, Atlanta has played like one of the worst teams in baseball history.

The only good news for Gonzalez and the Braves is that things can’t possibly get much worse from here.

Bryan Price, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds had made the playoffs in three of the four seasons before Bryan Price replaced Dusty Baker as the team’s manager in 2014. Since Price became the team’s skipper, they’re 151-201.

Cincinnati currently sits in the cellar of the National League Central at 11-17. While the season is still very early, the Reds have already set records for futility.

It’s particularly surprising for Price to oversee a bullpen that bad, as he was a Minor League pitcher and an MLB pitching coach before becoming Cincy’s manager.

Now, no matter how good the coaching might be, Cincinnati doesn’t have the talent in its bullpen to perform at a high level. With that said, this unit shouldn’t be historically bad. Once that happens, it reflects poorly on the man in charge.

The reality is that the strongest argument to keep Price around is that his contract expires at the end of the season. But given his 2014-2015 record and how bad the team looks in 2016, there can’t be much thought about bringing him back for 2017.

If there’s a potential replacement within the organization to audition, keeping Price around makes little sense.

Joe Girardi, New York Yankees

Unlike Atlanta and Cincinnati, the Yankees aren’t rebuilding. They do have a few good (or potentially good) young cornerstones, but the majority of New York’s best players are well over 30. If this team can’t contend in 2016, there’s no reason to think that 2017 will be any better.

So, the fact that the Yankees are 9-16 and sitting in the American League East’s basement is more than a little troubling.

Additionally, while the Bronx Bombers did make the playoffs in 2015, they did so largely because of a strong effort over the season’s first four months. From August 1 of last season to the present day, New York is 38-47.

That’s not to say that this whole mess is Girardi’s fault. But as the old saying goes, you can’t fire a team. Girardi has been a good manager for the Yankees. But under his most recent watch, New York missed the playoffs in 2013 and 2014 and had the shortest of short postseason stays in 2015. That’s not the kind of team that the Yankees and their fans are used to having.

If this doesn’t turn around quickly, Girardi’s stay in 2016 will be either abbreviated or long and miserable. Either way, his seat will be hot the whole time.

Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels

It could be argued that the Angels have the worst farm system in baseball, and really, it’s not a long argument. A team that has MLB’s best player in Mike Trout, a slew of veterans and little help coming from the farm is certainly built to win now.

There in lies the problem. Los Angeles is not winning now. After narrowly missing the playoffs a season ago, the Angels are 13-15.

When we look at the bigger picture, it’s obvious the Angels are trending in the wrong direction under Scioscia:

None of that really works. If the Halos were a team that hadn’t been competitive in a while, their 2010-2015 success would be fine. But this is a big-market team that should be competing for World Series titles every year. That hasn’t happened in a while.

The good news for Los Angeles is that the American League West hasn’t exactly been overwhelming, so the Angels are still within striking distance.

But if anything, that should be a sign that it’s time to make a change, rather than a sign that things are going okay. If any division rival gets hot over the month of May, the Angels could find themselves in a tough spot heading into the summer.

Brad Ausmus, Detroit Tigers

We finish with the only manager listed that currently has a winning record. Detroit not only has a winning record but if the season ended on May 4, it would make the playoffs.

So, why is Ausmus on the hot seat?

He started the season there, something Ausmus himself was aware of and freely acknowledged.

Two, we’ve been down this road before. The Tigers were 15-8 in April last season and failed to post another winning month. Detroit has a winning record, but they’re 14-12, not 15-8. Being two games over .500 may not be bad enough to get a manager fired, but it’s not exactly good enough to cool a hot seat.

The Tigers have yet to win a World Series under the ownership of Mike Ilitch. The failure to win a World Series has not been for a lack of effort, as Detroit has been incredibly active in trades and free agency. This is a trend that continued this offseason with the acquisitions of Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, and Francisco Rodriguez. So far, the results have been slightly positive.

If they start to turn slightly negative or worse, it’s hard to see Ausmus sticking around for a long time.