The prop market for Super Bowl LVI is starting to come into focus. Some lines have moved while others are simply juiced up in an attempt to scare you off.
Instead of worrying about those inflated numbers, we’re going to point you in the right direction for some big wins come Sunday.
Here are my 5 best prop bets for Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Opening Kickoff To Be A Touchback – No (-112 at FanDuel)
Let’s start where the game starts – with the opening kickoff.
During the 2021 regular season, kickoffs resulted in touchbacks just more than 60 percent of the time, and the two kickers in this game – the Rams’ Matt Gay and the Bengals’ Evan McPherson – were slightly better at 62 percent (120 touchbacks in 193 kickoffs) this season.
While it seems like close to a 50-50 proposition here, there is one factor that swings the pendulum to “No” for me – the football. The ball for the Super Bowl isn’t the same as what these kickers have used throughout the regular season and other playoff games.
The commemorative football, which will head to the Hall of Fame following the game, is a heavier non-kicking ball that isn’t broken in. This has allowed for just two of the past 20 opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl to go for a touchback.
That’s right! This prop has hit “No” at a 90 percent clip over the past two decades. Seems like a no-brainer here at close to even money.
Game Score Props: First Scoring Play – Field Goal (+128 at FanDuel)
Now onto the first score of the game! Touchdown, field goal or safety?
Let’s throw out safety (+10000) as it has only happened once in the history of the Super Bowl. Huge payout, yes, but not this time.
We could go along with the public and take touchdown with -164 odds, but field goal, at plus odds, is the answer. McPherson has converted all 12 of his attempts in the playoffs and Gay is just behind at 7-for-8.
A field goal has been the first score in five of the past six Super Bowls. I’ll ride that wave to another early “W” in Super Bowl LVI.
Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime TD (+140 at BetMGM)
Beckham looks more and more like Giants version of OBJ.
He has six touchdown catches in 11 games with the Rams this season, including a score in one of the team’s three playoff games. In those three games, Beckham also has 23 targets.
With his target share trending up, it’s time for Beckham to show up on the biggest stage and catch a TD. It also wouldn’t be outlandish to snag OBJ at +1000 odds for the 1st Touchdown of the game.
Van Jefferson Receiving Yards – Over 30.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
We’re going to look at another Rams wide receiver for a receiving yards prop.
Jefferson is clearly behind Cooper Kupp and Beckham in the Rams’ passing game pecking order, but he has eclipsed this number in one of the team’s’ three playoff games and did it another 12 times in the regular season.
I’m looking for the second-year wideout to cash this one on a single play as the Bengals allowed 65 catches of 20-plus yards in the regular season and have given up another five such plays in the postseason.
Jefferson caught a 41-yard pass in the Wild Card round and I like him to hit on a big play for the Rams again, as well as the over on this prop.
Joe Mixon Receiving Yards – Over 25.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Even though I think the Rams win this game, we can’t leave the Bengals out of the mix when it comes to my best prop bets for the Super Bowl. With that in mind, I’m all over Joe Mixon’s receiving yards prop.
I expect the Bengals to be behind early, similar to the rest of their playoff games, and that means we could see a lot of Mixon in the passing game. He had four receptions for 28 yards in the Wild Card round, followed that up with six grabs for 51 yards in the Divisional Playoffs and then had another 3-for-27 in the AFC Championship Game.
That’s more than 25.5 receiving yards during each step of this miracle run for the Bengals. I expect Mixon to make it a clean sweep and top that number again in Super Bowl LVI.
–Pauly Parlays, Field Level Media