2015 NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Grizzlies Western Conference Semifinal Preview

With every first-round playoff series now wrapped up, the NBA Playoffs move to the conference semifinal round. There weren’t many surprises in the initial set of games, so these matchups are going to be pretty darn good throughout the Association.

Check out our preview of the Warriors-Grizzlies series, which gets going Sunday in Oakland.

1) Golden State Warriors vs. 5) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series: Warriors 2-1

Dec. 16: Grizzlies 105, Warriors 98

Mar. 27: Warriors 107, Grizzlies 84

Apr. 13: Warriors 111, Grizzlies 107

Key Matchup: Draymond Green vs. Zach Randolph

The narrative has been set here for a while. We already know that Green is undersized for a power forward. That played somewhat of a role against Anthony Davis in Golden State’s first-round series win against the New Orleans Pelicans, but Green held his own big time. Some expert’s pick for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year held his own offensively against Davis. Green averaged 15.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.5 steals per game in that series. Talk about coming up clutch.

As it relates to Randolph, his numbers were down considerably from the regular season. He put up just over 14 points and 8.4 rebounds per game against the Portland Blazers. That was down from 16.1 and 10.5 respectively in the regular year. He also shot just 35 percent from the field. That’s not going to get it done if the Grizzlies want to advance.

The Warriors will Win if…

…they just continue doing what they’re doing. A full week rest could be either good or bad for this team. The last time Golden State had this much time off, it came out and went just 4-3 in the seven games following the All-Star break. If Kerr’s squad plays up to its capability, there’s really no reason to believe Memphis will make much of a series out of it.

We focused on how Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson make the Warriors go in our preview of their first-round series, which ended in a sweep of the Pelicans. The same rings true here. Golden State can afford one of these All-Stars to struggle, but it can’t overcome struggles from both. Another thing to look at here is Andrew Bogut. If he’s able to put in substantial minutes against Marc Gasol, it’s going to be huge for the Warriors. That means staying healthy and avoiding foul trouble. Bogut has a huge advantage against his counterpart in the block. His ability to play extended minutes could determine the outcome of the series.

The Grizzlies will Win if…

…they dominate the trenches. With Mike Conley questionable to go in the series, the onus falls on Mac Gasol and Zach Randolph to make things work in the paint. Overall, Memphis has a sizable advantage, but the team cannot overlook what Golden State brings to the table from the low post. If the production we see from Gasol and Randolph isn’t much more than Green and Bogut, especially on offense, it’s going to be a long series for the Grizzlies.

Looking at it from a logical perspective, Memphis likely needs to steal one of the first two games in Oakland to have a shot here. Going down 2-0 heading home is not an ideal scenario for the team. That’s where Gasol and Randolph need to come up big early on. That’s only magnified by the likely absence of Conley early in the series.

Series Prediction: Warriors in Five

Postseason included, Golden State is 41-2 at home. For those not counting, that’s a .954 winning percentage. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they were just 24-17 on the road, including a substandard 14-11 since January 1st. Mathematically, they need to nab one on the road and sweep Golden State in Memphis to win the series. That’s just not too likely at this point.

The way Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are playing right now, I am not sure there’s a team in the NBA that could match up with Golden State on a nightly basis. They combined for 74.5 points, 21.3 rebounds, 15.5 rebounds and 4.5 steals per game against New Orleans. If they come even close to those numbers, the Warriors will roll here. It’s also unfortunate that Conley may not see any action in this series. His presence would have been huge for the underdog Grizzlies.

Photo: USA Today Sports