The 2023-24 period for MLB free agents officially begins Monday at 5 p.m. ET, and, if past years are an indicator, it won’t end until some point in spring training.
This year’s class is top heavy, led by the most exciting and coveted free agent in baseball history, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who likely will break some club’s bank despite not being able to pitch again until 2025.
He’s not the only intriguing player that will be choosing a new team in the next few weeks or months. Here are the ten most intriguing free agents in this class, with a prediction on where each will land:
DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani
2023 team: Los Angeles Angels
Age: 29
Skinny: Ohtani, who hit 44 home runs last year and pitched to a 3.14 ERA, is the most unique player to ever enter MLB’s free agency. Initially, there was speculation he’d fetch as much as $500 million in an open market, but those projections dipped when Ohtani had elbow surgery in September. Expected to win the 2023 AL MVP, Ohtani will be a hitter-only next season, and hopes to return to the mound in 2025. It’s possible Ohtani is the first $400 million man in free agency, likely surpassing Aaron Judge’s nine-year, $360 million deal last year with the New York Yankees (the record for players who entered free agency; that doesn’t include extensions).
Projected landing spot: Seattle Mariners. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites here, given Ohtani’s familiarity with the L.A. market, the Dodgers’ deep pockets and desire to win after being swept out of the National League Divisional Series. But the Mariners have always had a strong relationship with Japanese players and a penchant for the surprise. Given their outstanding pitching staff, they’re one team that doesn’t desperately need him in the rotation.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2023 team: Orix Buffaloes
Age: 25
Skinny: Yamamoto first must be posted by his Japan Pacific League team, the Buffaloes, before he can begin his 45-day negotiating window with MLB clubs, but that is expected to happen. When it does, big-market teams will be swarming around the 5-foot-10, 169-pound Yamamoto, who has at least four quality pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a disappearing splitter. The expectation is that Yamamoto’s contract value – part of which will go to the Buffaloes – will exceed the previous Japanese-MLB record of $155 million set by New York Yankees’ right-hander Masahiro Tanaka in 2014. Because Yamamoto, who has won Nippon Professional Baseball’s last three Samurai Awards (Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young), waited until he was 25 to post, he is not subject to international signing bonus limitations.
Projected landing spot: New York Mets. The conventional wisdom is that the Yankees and Dodgers will be the front-runners, but Yamamoto shares an agent with the Mets’ Kodai Senga, who was a teammate of Yamamoto’s on Japan’s 2020 Olympic Gold Medalist squad. The Mets sold away top pitching at the trade deadline, and it’s hard to believe Mets owner Steve Cohen will accept a rebuild, especially when he can outbid the Yankees.
LHP Blake Snell
2023 team: San Diego Padres
Age: 30
Skinny: Assuming the tea leaves are read correctly, Snell is about to become just the seventh pitcher in MLB history to win Cy Young Awards in both leagues. He is the favorite to claim the NL prize – he won AL Cy Young in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays – after posting a league-best 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts in 32 games for the Padres. He’ll undoubtedly get his payday, although his exorbitant walk rate, 5.0 per nine innings, is going to give some teams pause. Yet most won’t overlook what he did in his 14, second-half starts – 8-2 with a 1.54 ERA.
Projected landing spot: Los Angeles Dodgers. If the Dodgers miss out on Ohtani, and I’m guessing they do, this is the perfect guy to lead their rotation. He doesn’t go deep in games, but the Dodgers bullpen can handle that. And they’d be making a division rival worse. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox would love to welcome him back to the AL East.
CF/1B Cody Bellinger
2023 team: Chicago Cubs
Age: 28
Skinny: Bellinger appeared on his way to superstardom after winning the NL MVP as a 24-year-old in 2019. His career then bottomed out with the Dodgers, and, after three mostly awful seasons, he signed a one-year, make-good contract with the Cubs for $17.5 million. Boy, did Bellinger make good. He batted .307 with 26 homers and 20 steals and is the most intriguing position player on this market, because of his age, pedigree and defensive prowess.
Projected landing spot: Chicago Cubs. He should draw widespread interest – the San Francisco Giants seems like a solid fit, too – but this just seems like a good marriage. The Cubs will certainly make Bellinger a qualifying offer, expected to be in the $20.5 million range, so they can get compensation if he leaves. But it just makes too much sense for them to expand it by a few years and keep Bellinger in town.
LHP Josh Hader
2023 team: San Diego Padres
Age: 29
Skinny: If he’s not baseball’s best closer, he is high up on the list. Besides what likely was an anomaly in 2022, he’s also been the role’s most consistent performer since he stormed into the league in 2017. Some teams shy away from spending big money on back-end relievers, but games need to be closed and Hader is great at doing that.
Projected landing spot: Texas Rangers. The newly minted World Champions struggled with the end of their bullpen all year before the postseason, when Josh Sborz and José Leclerc nailed down leads. Aroldis Chapman, a pending free agent, was shaky, however. Replacing him with Hader, and pushing Leclerc back to set-up, would make an excellent club even better.
RHP Aaron Nola
2023 team: Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 30
Skinny: Despite pitching in big-market Philadelphia, Nola has never fully gotten his due. Only one All Star appearance and two top 5 finishes in the NL Cy Young race. And he is overshadowed in the Phillies’ current rotation by Zack Wheeler. Nola had an uneven season in 2023, posting a 4.46 ERA in 32 starts but was much better in the postseason (2.35 ERA in four starts). He has made 32 or more starts and struck out 200 or more batters in each of the last five full seasons. That gets you paid well in the big leagues.
Projected landing spot: Boston Red Sox. Nola has spent his entire nine-season career with the Phillies, and that kind of longevity and loyalty means something to players. So, expect the Phillies to try and keep Nola. But there will be competition, and it should come from a couple other baseball-crazy towns in Boston and St. Louis, among others. The Red Sox new regime could use a splash.
LHP Jordan Montgomery
2023 team: Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 30
Skinny: Remember, this is most intriguing, not necessarily the best free agents. Where Montgomery lands – and how much he is paid – will be fascinating. No one improved his stock more this year than the big lefty. He was good in the first half for the Cardinals, superb in the second half for the Rangers and then imposed his will a few times in the postseason. He’s not an ace, but he is a bulldog who seems to be improving as he ages.
Projected landing spot: New York Yankees. I could see Montgomery landing several places. He’d be a great fit for the Baltimore Orioles, who could use a veteran atop their rotation, especially one with postseason experience. But Montgomery’s late season performance pushed him above that financial tier and into a more lucrative stratosphere. The Yankees were criticized for dealing away Montgomery. It makes sense they overpay some now to get him back.
RHP Sonny Gray
2023 team: Minnesota Twins
Age: 33
Skinny: While no one was looking, Gray had one of the best seasons of his 11-year career, posting a 2.79 ERA, striking out a batter per inning and allowing only eight homers all year. He was vintage Gray, throwing strikes and getting lots of grounders with little run support. His advancing age is concerning, but the guy can pitch, and his 184 innings logged were his most since 2015.
Projected landing spot: St. Louis Cardinals. He just feels like a Cardinals signing. Not a huge splash but someone who can get the job done. St. Louis needs to add two starters this offseason if it expects to get back into the NL Central competition.
DH J.D. Martinez
2023 team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 36
Skinny: This season was typical Martinez. After signing a one-year, $10 million deal last offseason with the Dodgers, the slugger … well, slugged, hitting 33 homers and posting an .893 OPS. He played in only 113 games but compiled full-season numbers, including 103 RBIs, his most since 2019. He has the perfect combination of experience, leadership and power to secure another eight-figure contract – and maybe a multi-year deal in a market thin on power.
Projected landing spot: Los Angeles Dodgers. I was tempted to send Martinez back to Boston, where he played for five seasons, or maybe to the Giants, who have been connected to him when Martinez was a free agent in the past. But if I’m predicting the Dodgers won’t land Ohtani, then bringing Martinez back makes sense.
3B Matt Chapman
2023 team: Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 30
Skinny: It’s a bit of a mixed bag for Chapman. He is still an outstanding defender and he has pop, though his 17 homers last year were the fewest of any full season in his career. He’s also durable, but last year’s 140 games played were the fewest for a full season since he was a rookie. Then there are the whiffs. He struck out 28.4 percent of his plate appearances in 2023, which is slightly higher than his career percentage. So, there are warts here and he’s not coming off the ideal walk season. Still, he’s only 30, a veteran leader, a doubles machine, and his .330 on-base percentage was nearly a career best.
Projected landing spot: San Francisco Giants. Casey Schmitt is supposed to be the third baseman of the future and blocking him may be shortsighted. But the Giants need to get better in a division that is getting tougher, and shoring up the third-base defense while adding some power is a good place to start. Besides, no one understands more what Chapman brings to the table than new Giants manager Bob Melvin, who spent five seasons with Chapman in Oakland.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.