The NBA regular season is now in the books. Wednesday’s action was defined by the Golden State Warriors earning their record 73rd win of the season and Kobe Bryant dropping an astounding 60 points in his final NBA game.
We now focus on what promises to be an intriguing playoff season around the Association.
Here’s a look at all four first-round series in the Western Conference Playoffs with predictions for each series.
Check here for the Eastern Conference version.
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets
Season series: Golden State wins 3-0
- Oct. 30: Golden State 112, Houston 92
- Dec. 31: Golden State 114, Houston 110
- Feb. 9: Golden State 123, Houston 110
Key matchup: Klay Thompson vs. James Harden
After putting up a decent performance on the defensive end of the court last season, Harden has fallen off the map big time this year. He was a key cog on a Houston defense that yielded the fifth-most points in the NBA.
He also yielded a 45 percent field goal percentage to opposing players, including a near 40 percent mark from three-point range.
While we know Harden can score, he’s facing a potential First-Team All Defensive team performer in Thompson. Without a real ability to stop Thompson on the defensive end of the court, Harden is going to have to make up for it on offense. That’s a mighty tall task.
Thompson averaged 20.7 points while shooting 45 percent from the field in three regular season games against Houston. Meanwhile, Harden shot just 38 percent from the field against the Warriors during the regular year.
The Warriors will win if…
…They just continue to do what they’ve done against the Rockets over the past two seasons. Including last year’s Western Conference Finals, Golden State has won 11 of 12 against Houston since the start of the 2014-15 campaign. It’s averaging 112.7 points during that span.
The other key here for the defending champs comes on the interior. Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli are both healthy. They have also shown the ability to go up against Dwight Howard on the inside. That was the one advantage Houston had prior to the playoffs last season.
The Rockets will win if…
…Warriors miss their flight to four games and forfeit. In reality, this is probably the least favorable matchup the Rockets could have asked for. While no one in Houston is complaining about making the playoffs, recency bias tells us a story of a team that really doesn’t stand much of a chance here.
Harden will have to absolutely lose his mind on the offensive end of the court. By this, we mean he’s going to have to put up 35-plus points per game. Even then, the Rockets must find a consistent secondary scorer. That might come in the form of Trevor Ariza, but he shot just 42 percent from the field against Golden State during the regular year.
Prediction: Golden State wins 4-0
The Warriors will likely break out into a sweat in Houston. That’s a good home-court advantage for the Rockets. Though, it must be noted that Golden State is 5-1 in Houston over the past two seasons, the most-recent win coming with Stephen Curry sitting out to injury.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Season series: San Antonio wins 4-0
Nov. 21: San Antonio 92, Memphis 82
Dec. 3: San Antonio 108, Memphis 83
Mar. 25: San Antonio 110, Memphis 104
Mar. 28: San Antonio 101, Memphis 87
Key matchup: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Zach Randolph
This is the only elite-level matchup of the series with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol out for Memphis. We flirted with going Lance Stephenson against Kawhi Leonard here, but that’s laughable.
Randolph is the type of player that gives Aldridge fits. His physicality inside can be something the Grizzlies will bank on in this series. Randolph played only one game against the Spurs, going for just nine points and six boards. That very same game saw Aldridge go for 18 points in a 20-point Spurs win.
The Spurs will win if …
…If they show up and play basketball. There’s no way that an injury-ravaged Grizzlies team stands a chance here. The only way Memphis takes this past five games is if Leonard regresses to rookie levels, Aldridge fails to perform anywhere near up to his capabilities and Gregg Popovich forgets how to coach. That’s about it. Sorry, not much more analysis available than that.
The Grizzlies will win if …
…Zach Randolph goes full-on Shaq. He’s the only player on the Grizzlies’ roster that should scare San Antonio here. He also has a solid advantage over Aldridge when it comes to low post play. More than this, Randolph needs to perform at an elite-level on the defensive end of the court to thwart the Spurs’ offense. If him and Aldridge cross cancel one another on offense, this will be a laughable series.
Prediction: San Antonio wins 4-0
Sweep. There’s really nothing else to look at here. If the Spurs show up and play up to their capabilities, they will sweep through Memphis in one of the most lopsided first-round playoff series in recent history.
No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs No. 6 Dallas Mavericks
Season series: Oklahoma City wins 4-0
Nov. 22: Oklahoma City 117, Dallas 114
Jan. 13: Oklahoma City 108, Dallas 89
Jan. 22: Oklahoma City 109, Dallas 106
Feb. 24: Oklahoma City 116, Dallas 103
Key matchup: Russell Westbrook vs. Mavericks four point guards
Dallas will be able to throw a bunch of different defensive looks Westbrook’s way with Raymond Felton, Devin Harris, Deron Williams and J.J. Barea. Though, it’s important to note this four-some did very little to stop Westbrook during the regular season.
He averaged 17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists against the Mavericks in four games. Not great numbers, but splits that would enable Oklahoma City to win going away.
The Thunder will win if …
…They continue to play tremendous basketball on the offensive end of the court. While the Thunder definitely struggle on the defensive end of the court, Dallas simply can’t keep up with them from a scoring standpoint.
Now take into account the fact that the Mavericks finished among the 13-worst teams in terms of points allowed, and this is magnified even further.
The Mavericks will win if …
…They can slow down either Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant. This is a team that boasts a liability on the defensive end. If both of the Thunder’s stars go off, Dallas will be swept. If the Mavericks are able to potentially hold one of these two guys to a poor performance, they will be in the series.
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-2
Dallas is one of the best-coached teams in the playoffs with Rick Carlisle manning the bench. This means that the team will be more than prepared come playoff time.
Unfortunately, the Mavericks don’t have anywhere near the talent to compete with Oklahoma City in a best of seven. That’s the harsh reality of the situation.
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers
Season Series: Los Angeles wins 3-1
- Nov. 20: Portland 102, Los Angeles 91
- Nov. 30: Los Angeles 102, Portland 87
- Jan. 6: Los Angeles 109, Portland 98
- Mar. 24: Los Angeles 96, Portland 94
Key Matchup: Chris Paul vs. Damian Lillard
The old guard against the new guard. This promises to be one of the best individual battles of the first round of the playoffs. An All-Star snub, Lillard is coming off a 2015-16 campaign that saw him average over 25 points per game while shooting 38 percent from three-point range.
Meanwhile, Paul had to legitimately carry the load in Los Angeles with Blake Griffin missing more than half the season. He led the Clippers to a 54-28 record and the fourth seed out west. Putting up potentially the best season of his career, Paul averaged over 19 points and 10 assists per game.
While the Clippers did get the best of Portland in the regular season, Paul struggled big time. He shot just 41 percent from the field while committing over three turnovers per outing. Meanwhile, Lillard also failed to perform at a high level against the Clippers. He shot just 32 percent from the field in four games.
The Clippers will win if…
…They can get production from others outside of Chris Paul. While Griffin might be back in the fold, he’s still not playing at the level we have become accustomed to. In reality, it might be too much to ask of him to just turn it on in the playoffs. If that’s the case, someone else is going to have to step up.
Going against a three-point happy Blazers team, this might have to come in the form of J.J. Redick, who led the NBA with a 49 percent mark from three-point range. The former Duke standout did shoot at a lower clip from distance against the Blazers than he did the rest of the NBA. That’s going to have to change if the Clippers are going to come out on top.
The Trail Blazers will win if…
…Lillard and C.J. McCollum lose their minds. These two might very well be able to keep Portland in this series long enough for others to step up. The primary issue here is that Los Angeles is so much deeper than the Blazers in terms of talent. If these two don’t play at elite levels (both of them), it’s going to be a major issue for Portland.
But as we saw against some of the elite teams during the regular season, this back-court duo can also put up the magic at times. When they are playing at high levels together, there’s not a team Portland can’t beat in the NBA. Just ask the Warriors.
Prediction: Portland wins 4-3
Los Angeles might have the two-best players in this series. It also boasts a deeper, more talented roster. Though, we simply have no idea if Griffin is going to be up for the task of taking on a solid front-court after missing a vast majority of the season with multiple injuries.
If Griffin isn’t playing at his normal level, the Clippers are going to be in trouble. That’s only magnified by the presences of Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh in the low post for Portland.