NFL picks against the spread are back with a look ahead to the most worthwhile matchups for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
It’s always tricky to make picks at this early stage in the campaign. For the most part, we won’t know how good a vast majority of the teams will be until a month or so into the season.
The opening week of regular-season action offers us a ton of interesting matchups. This includes the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs opening their season Thursday night at home against upstart Detroit Lions. Can Jared Goff and Co. pull off the big early season upset?
Sunday’s action also provides us with a big rivalry matchup between Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers and Justin Fields’ Chicago Bears squad inside Soldier Field. The home teams finds itself as 2.5-point underdogs as Green Bay opens the post-Aaron Rodgers era.
In the first edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the five games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | TV |
| Detroit Lions (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs | 8:20 PM (Thursday) | NBC |
| Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos | 4:25 PM | CBS |
| Miami Dolphins (+3.0) @ Los Angeles Chargers | 4:25 PM | CBS |
| Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+3.5) | 8:20 PM | NBC |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+2.5) | 8:15 PM | ESPN/ABC |
Related: Updated 2023 NFL power rankings
Detroit Lions keep it close against defending champions
On the surface, it doesn’t seem like Detroit will have much of a chance against Kansas City. The defending champion Chiefs were 7-1 at home a season ago. Patrick Mahomes tallied 21 total touchdowns and six interceptions inside the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Lions were a mere 4-4 away from Detroit with Jared Goff throwing six touchdowns against four interceptions in those eight games compared to a 23-to-3 ratio at home.
All of this is fine and dandy. But the upstart Lions are not going to get blown out to open the 2023 season. They won eight of 10 to conclude last season, averaging 30 points per game during that span. Star Chiefs defensive tackle and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year finalist Chris Jones is a holdout and won’t be suiting up, either.
While we expect Kansas City to come away with a narrow win. We’re going with the Lions to cover in our NFL picks against the spread for Week 1.
Jimmy Garoppolo era with the Las Vegas Raiders opens with a bang (NFL picks lock)
One shocking stat we must look at is the fact that the Raiders have defeated Denver six consecutive times. That spans two different head coaches and multiple quarterbacks in the Mile High City. Last season saw the Raiders average 27 points in two games against one of the better defenses in the NFL.
We’re expecting improvement on that side of the ball for the Raiders with Jimmy Garoppolo replacing Derek Carr under center. Reigning NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs returns after holding out. Davante Adams is 100% healthy at wide receiver. The Raiders should be able to move the ball against Denver.
On the other side, Russell Wilson returns for his second season after a disastrous initial campaign in Denver. The Broncos ranked dead last in the NFL in scoring at 16.9 points per game. Wilson threw just 16 touchdowns in 15 starts. Regardless of how respected new head coach Sean Payton is, this isn’t a good trend. Ups and downs during the preseason add another layer to that. This is our NFL picks against the spread lock for Week 1.
Related: NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions
Tua Tagovailoa gets the best of 2020 classmate
When Tua Tagovailoa was on the field last season, his Dolphins offense was absolutely dynamic. Miami averaged 25 points in his 13 starts. Tyreek Hill (119 receptions, 1,710 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (75 receptions, 1,356 yards) made sweet music with Tua, too.
Despite this, some are discounting the Dolphins because they were 3-6 away from South Beach a season ago. We’re not buying this. Three of those losses came with Tua sidelined. He also nearly led Miami to a win over the Chargers in Los Angeles in Week 14, losing by the score of 23-17.
Chargers home games are an interesting case study in that they don’t really have much of an advantage at SoFi Stadium. Opposing teams see their fans show up big time. Justin Herbert also wasn’t great at home (11 TD, 6 INT) compared to on the road (14 TD, 4 INT). Our NFL picks has Miami winning this one outright.
New York Giants make Week 1 statement
The Giants were a mediocre 5-3-1 at home a season ago. With that said, Daniel Jones performed much better in front of the faithful than on the road. He boasted a 94.3 QB rating with 16 total touchdowns in nine starts. With Saquon Barkley back in the mix and working under head coach Brian Daboll’s offense for a second season, Jones is seemingly hitting his stride. He played stellar football in limited preseason action and seems to be on the upswing.
Dallas is a bit of a wild card heading into this game. All five of the Cowboys’ regular-season losses in 2022 came on the road. It also fell to the San Francisco 49ers on the road in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.
The one common denominator here was the lackluster performance of Dak Prescott away from Big D. The embattled veteran threw seven touchdowns against seven interceptions on the road. He then tossed two more picks against San Francisco in the postseason. Going into a hostile environment Sunday night, our NFL picks indicate that Dallas will be upset.
Related: 2023 NFL defense rankings
NFL picks against the spread lock: Aaron Rodgers stuns Buffalo Bills
This promises to be absolutely electric with Aaron Rodgers making his home debut as a member of the Jets to close up Week 1 on national television. Not only that, but it also comes on the anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The powers that be within the NFL knew exactly what it was doing here.
On the field, there’s every reason to believe that New York can maintain homefield against the defending AFC East champions while making a major statement. It’s a numbers game at this point in the season when making NFL picks.
On the Bills’ side, we have to look at last season. Star quarterback Josh Allen threw 15 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions on the road in 2022, good enough for an 88.9 QB rating. Comparatively, Allen tallied a 20-to-6 ratio with a 105.6 QB rating at home.
It’s also not a coincidence that New York split its season series with Buffalo a season ago despite disastrous quarterback play from Zach Wilson and Co. That included a 20-17 home win in which Allen was held to 18-of-34 passing with zero touchdowns through the air and two interceptions. With much better QB play expected in 2023, being 2.5-point home underdogs doesn’t seem to make too much sense.