The 2024 NFL season kicks off on September 5 in what’s built up to be another captivating time of year for football. Before Week 1 kicks off, we’ve got NFL predictions for the 2024 season to project everything that will happen this year.
Sportsnaut is looking at each team and evaluating how they will perform during the regular season. There are plenty of things we’ll be keeping an eye on this year, providing analysis throughout the upcoming season. From the NFL MVP race and Rookie of the Year candidates to the road toward Super Bowl LIX and the battle for NFL playoff spots.
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With all of that in mind, let’s jump into our 2024 NFL predictions.
2024 NFL predictions: Win-loss records for all 32 teams
NFC West
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 9 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 20 |
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers roster is arguably the best in the NFL. On a single offense, the 49ers have four first-team All-Pro selections (Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle and Trent Williams) along with fellow All-Pro talents in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, Brock Purdy executes the system perfectly and San Francisco has maintained a top-10 defense on an annual basis. Making the playoffs is the bare minimum for San Francisco, success is defined by the Super Bowl.
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Los Angeles Rams
What hangs over the Los Angeles Rams is the retirement of Aaron Donald. Remove that from the equation and you have a playoff team that strengthened its roster in the trenches and the secondary this summer. Los Angeles gets to play a more physical brand of football in 2024, which in combination with Sean McVay’s passing offense led by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – gives the Rams an elite offense. Unfortunately, the void left by Donald’s retirement is still there and it might prevent the Rams from reaching the Super Bowl.
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Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks feel like they’re a year away from making the playoffs. Offensively, the only thing holding this team back is the line. There’s some young talent up front, but this group is still not close to even being league-average. Defensively, we love what first-year coach Mike Macdonald can do long-term, but his first year as the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator proves the steep learning curve with his scheme. The Seahawks will cause problems for good teams and be very competitive, but we think they’re a year away.
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Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals fans should be excited for this season. Expectations are low, meaning any heartbreaking loss or early lesson this team must learn won’t be especially painful. This season is an opportunity to watch Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson develop into becoming an excellent quarter. Jonathan Gannon proved himself as a head coach last season, but his defense still doesn’t have the personnel for the Cardinals to keep games close. At the very least, this season will be more fun to watch than last year.
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NFC North
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | 6 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 11 |
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are the Houston Texans of the NFC. With a young franchise quarterback, the future is even brighter than the present and that’s saying something. Green Bay’s receiving corps around Jordan Love doesn’t have household names, but it’s also one of the deepest in the NFL. Free-agent signee Josh Jacobs has played at an All-Pro level and tight end Luke Musgrave is a breakout candidate. On the other side of the ball, whether or not the Packers contend for a Super Bowl this season comes down to defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s ability to get the most out of a talented defense.
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Detroit Lions
Everyone labeled the Detroit Lions as the breakout team for the 2023 season and they still exceeded expectations, coming just a few plays short of the Super Bowl. Detroit addressed its needs well this offseason, improving its cornerback room and adding some more depth on the defensive line. On offense, Ben Johnson is back and both Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs could take even bigger steps forward. We have it as a neck-and-neck heat between Detroit and Green Bay, with a slight edge to the Packers.
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Chicago Bears
Following years of criticism for the lack of talent that surrounded Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears built a great supporting cast around rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The Bears’ defense will consistently generate stops and plenty of takeaways, immediately making life easier for Williams. Paired with arguably the best receiver trio in the NFL, Chicago’s new franchise quarterback has a shot to put this team in playoff contention.
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Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings might be the worst team in the NFC North this season, but they will make games interesting. We’ll likely see both Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy starting games in 2024 and Kevin O’Connell will get the most out of them. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s front seven can cause a lot of problems for opponents but the secondary might be a source of just as many issues for defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Ultimately, the holes in the Vikings’ secondary and the quarterback situation prevent Minnesota from contending.
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NFC South
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 9 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 10 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 12 |
Atlanta Falcons
One of the main reasons the Atlanta Falcons received so much criticism for the Michael Penix pick is because this defense desperately needed help. Instead, Atlanta used a first-round pick on a quarterback to backup Kirk Cousins and the best-case scenario is Penix not seeing the field this year. With that said, an offense with Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts is more than enough to challenge for the NFC South crown. Making the playoffs is doable, but it’s unlikely Atlanta will win a playoff game with this defense.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a surprising 2023 season from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they decided to run it back this year. There might be some slight concerns for regression from Baker Mayfield with the change in play-calling, but offensive coordinator Liam Coen is underrated. It’s reasonable to think the Buccaneers can have an above-average offense in 2024, but our expectations for Tampa Bay’s defense are much lower. Winning the division is well within the realm of possibility, but no one should mistake the Bucs as a legitimate contender in the NFL.
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New Orleans Saints
It’s the same story every year with the New Orleans Saints. They keep kicking problems down the road, setting up for bigger salary-cap issues in the future. In doing so, they limit what they can do to upgrade the roster. The Saints offensive line is arguably the worst in football, the pass rush is barely respected let alone feared and Derek Carr is the worst possible quarterback to have in this situation. The dropoff is coming for New Orleans.
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Carolina Panthers
The 2024 season is purely an evaluation year for Bryce Young for the Carolina Panthers. In his second season, Young now has a competent play-caller with pass-catchers who actually fit with his playing style. Plus, the Panthers’ offensive line should take a step forward. Young’s progress, or lack thereof, will dictate what Carolina has to do moving forward. As for the Panthers’ defense, it will be one of the worst in football and that’s even with one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL (Ejiro Evero) running the show.
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NFC East
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 8 |
| Washington Commanders | 5 | 12 |
| New York Giants | 4 | 13 |
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the most fascinating NFL teams in 2024. On the one hand, Philadelphia still boasts one of the best rosters in football and Jalen Hurts played pretty well last year considering his injury. The Eagles also addressed their defensive needs in the secondary and it stands to reason that Vic Fangio should be a huge upgrade as the architect of this unit. The drawbacks – Kellen Moore’s poor fit with Hurts, the second-half collapse in 2023 and Jason Kelce’s departure – are legitimate issues that could derail things quickly. One thing we will put down in our NFL predictions, Nick Sirianni won’t be the Eagles’ coach in 2025.
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Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys roster is significantly worse than it was last year. We also can’t ignore the lingering contract drama surrounding Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, which hangs a cloud over training camp. The Cowboys are one of those teams with premium talent at some key positions – quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver – but there’s minimal depth and huge questions at running back, linebacker and along the offensive line. This shouldn’t be how Prescott’s Cowboys career ends, but it feels inevitable based on everything that happened this offseason.
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Washington Commanders
This year is the first step in a multi-season process for the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels boasts the tools to be a franchise quarterback, but the Commanders offensive line is the biggest impediment to long-term success. Dan Quinn also has very little to work with defensively, which will put even more pressure on the rookie quarterback to perform. Ultimately, there’s just not remotely enough talent on the Commanders roster for this club to even have a shot at contending this season.
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New York Giants
We’ll start with the positive for the New York Giants. Few teams in the NFL can rival the Giants defensive line and New York’s front seven is one of the best in the NFC. That’s about it. The Giants’ offensive line should be better than it was a year ago, but that’s clearing a bar buried six feet in the ground. As for other issues, New York’s secondary is a massive question mark, its thin at running back and Daniel Jones is not who his biggest fans want him to be. All of this sets up for a frustrating Giants season that ends in Jones and Brian Daboll both being shown the door next offseason.
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AFC West
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12 | 5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 10 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | 4 | 13 |
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have a more talented team on paper than they did when they won the Super Bowl in back-to-back years. The days of Patrick Mahomes constantly throwing underneath are over, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy are bringing the deep ball back to the Chiefs’ offense. There will be some slight regression defensively because L’Jarius Sneed is gone, but this Chiefs offense will make an even bigger jump forward to make up for it. We can’t say it enough, NFL teams wasted their chance to take down the Chiefs when they were retooling their roster in the last two seasons.
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Las Vegas Raiders
We would have the Las Vegas Raiders in the playoff picture in the NFL predictions 2024 if they had a better quarterback. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer is an excellent cast of weapons. Las Vegas also had a top-10 defense in the second half of the season and now the Raiders have Christian Wilkins. It’s also clear this locker room is completely bought in on coach Antonio Pierce and ready to fight for him. That’s why it’s such a shame Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew will be starting for the Raiders in 2024. Even if Las Vegas had replaced Minshew with Jacoby Brissett, this might’ve been a playoff team.
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Los Angeles Chargers
We had the Los Angeles Chargers finishing second in the AFC West in our NFL predictions then Justin Herbert was diagnosed with plantar fascia. Sure, he might be back for Week 1, but plantar fascia injuries historically linger for months. As much as we love Jim Harbaugh and what he’ll do for the Chargers’ long-term, limited Herbert is awful news for a team with a bottom-10 defense and one of the NFL’s worst receiving corps. It’s going to be a transition year in Los Angeles, but great things will come in 2025.
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Denver Broncos
The 2024 NFL season will be remembered as the time when Sean Payton truly realized he made a colossal mistake taking this job. Bo Nix was a reach in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and he’s been thrust into a pretty bad situation. The Broncos defense isn’t awful, but it also isn’t going to win this club many games. We’ll say by Week 12, Payton will be thinking about how much better off he would’ve been spending another year on television and then being so coveted this past offseason that teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles might’ve fired their coaches to hire him. Instead, he’s stuck in a job that will hurt his career reputation.
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AFC North
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 7 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10 | 7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 8 |
Baltimore Ravens
It’s safe to say we’re lower on the Baltimore Ravens than the consensus. Part of the blame falls on a Ravens offensive line that lost three starters and is at a legitimate risk of being one of the worst NFL offensive lines in 2024. Moving to the other side of the ball, Baltimore lost starters at every level and it also watched as multiple assistants followed defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to better jobs. Those are the concerns. With all that said, this is still a team led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Furthermore, even with the red flags we see defensively, the Ravens’ history is enough evidence for us to believe this can be a top-10 unit.
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Cleveland Browns
If you remove quarterback from the equation, the Cleveland Browns roster is arguably the best in the NFL. So, why do we have a team with an elite 53-man roster and one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL with 7 losses and battling for a Wild Card berth? Because as hopeful as the Browns organization and fan base is that Deshaun Watson will turn things around, he has a worse QB rating (81.7) in the last two seasons than Jacoby Brissett (92.6) and Carson Wentz (81.8). There’s no reason, outside of team or financial loyalty, to believe Watson will ever regain his past form.
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Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are giving it one last ride with many of their key players. Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson might not be back in 2025, so there’s plenty of motivation to win now. One thing we’ll add to our NFL predictions for 2024 is that Joe Burrow will start every game this season. Unfortunately, a below-average Bengals defense and ground game will ultimately prevent Burrow, Higgins, Hendrickson and Ja’Marr Chase from making one last playoff run together.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is in a great place for this season and we’re very confident in the offensive line and run game. Our concern is the quarterback. Russell Wilson remains the heavy favorite to open the season as the starter, likely receiving at least 5-plus starts out of the gate. Unfortunately, Father Time has erased the player he used to be and he’s the worst possible fit in Arthur Smith’s offense. We’re betting on Wilson to put Pittsburgh in an early hole, losing at least 4 games by the middle of October. Mike Tomlin, Justin Fields and the Steelers defense will almost dig out of it but just miss the playoffs.
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AFC South
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 11 | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | 9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 10 |
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have the brightest future in the NFL. C.J. Stroudis an MVP-caliber quarterback playing on a cap-friendly contract for the next four seasons. DeMeco Ryans proved himself as an excellent head coach last season and now he has more than enough talent to turn this Texans defense into a top-12 unit. The Texans roster is deep at receiver and running back as well, justifying our belief this will be one of the highest-scoring NFL teams in 2024 with a defense that can also win Houston some games when needed.
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Indianapolis Colts
You’ll find a few NFL predictions with the Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South and Anthony Richardson challenging for MVP. It’s a best-case scenario, but one that feels extremely unlikely. Richardson only played in a handful of games last season, robbing him of snaps to develop his game. Fortunately for the second-year quarterback, Shane Steichen is a phenomenal play-caller and the weapons (Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr and Adonai Mitchell) are strong. We view the 2024 season as a growth year for both Richardson and the Colts defense. The fact that we still have Indianapolis winning 9 games in this scenario is a testament to what the Colts can become long-term.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense will surprise some people in 2024. Not only because Arik Armstead was added to the defensive line, but also because defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will maximize Travon Walker and Josh Allen. It’s the offense we’re a bit concerned with. Doug Pederson seems determined to keep allowing offensive coordinator Press Taylor to have significant input in play-calling. That hasn’t worked out well in the past, but Pederson is a loyal coach. While do expect Trevor Lawrence to stay healthy this season and play well, the play-calling situation and a mediocre supporting cast will end the Jaguars’ season early.
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Tennessee Titans
Credit to the Tennessee Titans for building the caliber of team that will allow the front office to conduct a fair evaluation of Will Levis. Tennessee improved the left side of its offensive line and added both Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to its receiving corps. On top of that, the Titans defense now has promising play-caller Dennard Wilson and he’s been provided the talent to make his scheme work. There are no excuses for Levis. If he’s a franchise-caliber talent, the Titans can snag a Wild Card spot. If he’s anything short of that, Tennessee can look for its next face of the franchise in 2025.
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AFC East
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 10 | 7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 7 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 5 | 12 |
New York Jets
Can the New York Jets stay healthy? That’s what will ultimately define their 2024 season. It’s reckless to project that a 40–year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off an Achilles injury will even be a top-10 quarterback this season. Even if he is just an above-average starter, New York has arguably the top defense in the league and the offensive weapons around Rodgers are some of the best in his Hall of Fame career. It all boils down to the durability of the Jets roster, which we’re willing to bet on at least for a few months.
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Buffalo Bills
We’ll put it down now in our NFL predictions that the 2024 season will be the most impressive of Josh Allen’s career. It still might not culminate in an MVP award or Super Bowl berth, but the Bills quarterback will elevate his game and the young talent around him like we haven’t seen before. There’s also enough reason to believe this Bills defense can be very good, providing more balance than we saw in 2023. With all of that said, there are still enough holes on the Bills roster in a transition season to cause some problems.
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins had to make significant changes this offseason, especially defensively. To make matters worse, top edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will miss the start of the regular season. So, that puts Miami in jeopardy of dealing with a slow start from their defense. Considering what’s happened to Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense in December and January, that’s quite concerning. Miami should win some shootouts early in the year, but some late-season losses will lead to the 2024 season being a disappointment.
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New England Patriots
The best thing the New England Patriots can do for Drake Maye is to let Jacoby Brissett open the season as the starting quarterback. Allow the veteran to draw the starts as this Patriots offensive line develops some cohesion and Maye picks up more of the playbook without being forced into a bad situation. By November, Maye can take over and show fans glimpses of what this Patriots offense can become with improvements made to the offensive line and receiving corps in the coming years. As for New England’s defense, we’re banking on Jerod Mayo maintaining a top-10 unit that will almost single-handedly win a few games.
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NFL season projections 2024 – Predicting the playoffs
NFC
- Wild Card Round: (2) Green Bay Packers over (7) Dallas Cowboys, (6) Los Angeles Rams over (3) Philadelphia Eagles, (5) Detroit Lions over (4) Atlanta Falcons
- Divisional Round: (5) Detroit Lions over (1) San Francisco 49ers, (2) Green Bay Packers over (5) Detroit Lions
- NFC Championship Game: (5) Detroit Lions over (2) Green Bay Packers
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AFC
- Wild Card Round: (2) Houston Texans over (7) Indianapolis Colts, (3) Baltimore Ravens over (6) Cleveland Browns, (4) New York Jets over (5) Buffalo Bills
- Divisional Round: (1) Kansas City Chiefs over (4) New York Jets, (2) Houston Texans over (3) Baltimore Ravens
- AFC Championship Game: (1) Kansas City Chiefs over (2) Houston Texans
Super Bowl LIX
- Super Bowl winner: (1) Kansas City Cheifs over (5) Detroit Lions
- Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
NFL stats projections 2024
Here are Sportsnaut’s NFL projections for stat leaders in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and receiving yards for the 2024 season.
NFL passing leaders 2024
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 4,810 passing yards
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – 4,709 passing yards
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 4,704 passing yards
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – 4,589 passing yards
- Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 4,487 passing yards
NFL passing touchdown leaders 2024
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers – 37 passing touchdowns
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 35 passing touchdowns
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – 35 passing touchdowns
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – 33 passing touchdowns
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 30 passing touchdowns
NFL rushing leaders 2024
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens – 1,389 rushing yards
- Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons – 1,208 rushing yards
- James Conner, Arizona Cardinals – 1,189 rushing yards
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles – 1,109 rushing yards
- Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers – 1,087 rushing yards
NFL receiving leaders 2024
- Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins – 1,987 receiving yards
- Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings – 1,739 receiving yards
- Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – 1,689 receiving yards
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – 1,658 receiving yards
- Garrett Wilson, New York Jets – 1,565 receiving yards
