After an 18-week regular season and two rounds of the NFL Playoffs, the matchup is set for the NFC Championship Game. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles deliver a contest with the highest of stakes for the NFC, a trip to Super Bowl LIX to represent the NFC. There are going to be some fantastic individual and group matchups, all of which will help determine who wins the NFC. Let’s immediately dive into the stats you need to know for the NFC Championship Game.
105.5 – Jayden Daniels’ QB rating when blitzed
Rookie quarterbacks aren’t supposed to be this good so quickly. What makes what Jayden Daniels doing even more absurd is the fact that he’s performing like an MVP-caliber quarterback in critical situations. Daniels reads and reacts to blitzes perfectly, routinely exploiting the vulnerability left by the blitzing defender for a big play. It’s why the blitz-heavy Detroit Lons were burned so badly by him in the Divisional Round.
- Jayden Daniels stats vs blitz (PFF): 105.5 QB rating (7th), 13 passing touchdowns (6th), 8.2 yards per attempt (8th), 65.7% completion rate (9th)
Even if the defense gets home with four, the Washington Commanders quarterback is thriving. In his first two playoff starts, Daniels sports a 66.7 percent completion rate and a 129.7 QB rating when pressured. Given his overall performance in two road playoff games – 654 total yards and 116.2 QB rating – we see no reason to believe he’ll slow down under the bright lights of the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
4 – 200-yard games allowed by Washington Commanders run defense this season
The Detroit Lions ran at will in the Divisional Round against the Washington Commanders, averaging an absurd 8.7 yards per carry with 3 rushing touchdowns and 201 rushing yards. Before hat, the Tampa Bay Buccanneers averaged 4 yards per carry with Bucky Irving (77 yards and 4.5 ypc) leading the way in the Wild Card round. It’s the same problem we saw during the regular season.
- Washington Commanders run defense stats: 137.5 rushing yards per game allowed (30th), 4.8 yards-per-carry average allowed (28th), Rush EPA -0.019 (26th), 42.9% Rush Success Rate (24th)
Including the NFL Playoffs, four Commanders’ opponents rushed for 200-plus yards with 2-plus touchdowns and averaged at least 5.4 yards per carry. On top of that, eight of the Commanders’ 19 opponents rushed for 150-plus yards this season. the key in the NFC Championship Game will be keeping Daniels off the field, feeding Saquon Barkley does that and it exploits Washington’s weakness.
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3.8 – Yards before Contact Per Attempt by Saquon Barkley
This is a golden opportunity for Saquon Barkley to shine. Behind a dominant Philadelphia Eagles offensive line – 72 percent ESPN run-block win rate (9th) – Barkley led all running backs in yards before contact per attempt (3.8) during the regular season. Putting it into perspective, the second-closest running back with 250-plus carries averaged 3.3 yards before contact per attempt. It’s also worth noting Barkley rushed for 296 rushing yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry versus the Washington Commanders in the regular season.
- Saquon Barkley stats: 5.1 true yards per carry (4th), 1.37 yards per route run, 1,262 yards created (6th), 28 breakaway runs (1st)
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16.1 – Yards per Reception vs Zone Coverage by Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown
Marshon Lattimore vs A.J. Brown will be one of the top matchups to watch in the NFC Championship Game. Depending on Jalen Hurts’ health and ball placement, the early edge goes to Brown. The All-Pro led all receivers with 35-plus targets in yards per reception versus zone coverage this season, catching 66.7 percent of targets thrown his way in cone coverage for 580 receiving yards. While Brown has been quiet in the playoffs – 3 receptions for 24 yards total – this could be his breakout game.
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81.3% – Washington Commanders’ fourth-down conversion rate
For those who thought Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions were aggressive on fourth downs, the Divisional Round showcased how far the Washington Commanders take things. Dan Quinn trusts Daniels like a Super Bowl champion and 10-year yet. The rookie has also backed it up, with this offense going 20-for-23 on fourth-down attempts in the regular season, posting a conversion rate that was 14.3 percent higher than the second-best team.
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The trend has continued in the playoffs. Washington averaged 4.5 fourth-down attempts per game n its first two postseason contests, recording an absurd 66.7 percent conversion rate. Washington’s 81.3 percent fourth-down conversion rate entering the NFC Championship Game is the highest in the NFL since 2018. Expect Washington to maintain that aggressiveness next Sunday. Also worth noting, the Eagles ranked 24th in fourth-down defense (63.3 percent success rate allowed) this season.
70.0 – Jalen Hurts’ QB rating when pressured this season
The Jalen Hurts injury suffered in the Divisional Round will linger into the NFC Championship Game. Limited mobility for Hurts has to be especially concerning for this Philadelphia Eagles passing game. Less capable of escaping defenders, Hurts won’t be able to bail out of the pocket or extend plays like we’re used to seeing. That’s going to give Washington a chance in this one.
- Jalen Hurts stats vs pressure (PFF): 70.0 QB rating (19th), 37.4 PFF grade (37th), 5.0 yards per attempt (34th), 45.2% completion rate (28th)
Philadelphia does have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to fall back on, at least giving Hurts a a clean pocket more frequently. It also helps a great deal that A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert can get separation from the Commanders’ defenders. If the Eagles lose the NFC Championship Game, it will be in large part because Hurts was under pressure and forced into sacks, off-target throws and potentially multiple turnovers.
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