Week 16 of the NFL has a loaded slate. This week includes two Saturday games: the Houston Texans facing the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the Baltimore Ravens. On Sunday, a potential playoff preview matchup takes place in Washington between the Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) and Commanders (9-5). Who is on upset alert this week? Check out our picks.
Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers
The Denver Broncos are surging, winning four games in a row to reach 9-5, including a dominant 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. After a slow start to the season, the Broncos’ offense has found its rhythm, scoring 24 or more points in their last four games. On the other side, the Los Angeles Chargers have lost two straight and are 8-6, sitting in the last Wild Card spot in the AFC playoff picture. Last Sunday, Los Angeles got blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 40-17. This Thursday night, the Chargers are 2.5-point favorites, but we’re picking the Broncos for the upset.
Why the Week 16 upset?
The Broncos’ offense has been clicking for four straight games. They rank 10th in scoring offense, averaging 24 points per game. Last week, they scored 14 of their 21 points in the fourth quarter. Denver is getting hot at the right time.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers and Ravens face off for the final time this regular season. Saturday’s game will go a long way toward determining who wins the AFC North. Pittsburgh is 10-4, while Baltimore is 9-4. The last time they played in November, the Steelers pulled off a two-point victory, 18-16. The key reason for their win was the turnover battle: The Steelers’ defense had three takeaways to only one turnover on offense. Despite star linebacker T.J. Watt being questionable with an ankle injury, he should be OK to play, but his status is worth monitoring. The Ravens are 6.5-point favorites, but we’re picking Pittsburgh again.
Why the Week 16 upset?
There’s a major gap between the Steelers and Ravens on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore does have the top-ranked run defense in the league, allowing only 81 yards per game. However, they are second-to-last in pass defense, giving up 277 yards per game. Although the Steelers have leaned on the run game quite a bit the last couple of weeks, they will need to make plays in the passing game to exploit the Ravens’ defense.
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New York Jets over Los Angeles Rams
The Jets have had nothing short of a disappointing season at 4-10. Seven of their 10 losses have been by seven points or fewer. Last week, however, they put an end to their three-game losing streak with a 32-26 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams are 8-6 and in first place in the NFC West after three straight wins, including last week’s rain-soaked 12-6 victory against the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are three-point favorites, but we’re going with the Jets for the upset.
Why the Week 16 upset?
The Jets’ pass defense can shut down anyone on any given game. New York ranks fifth in the league in passing yards allowed at 214 per game. The Rams love to throw the ball, ranking eighth in the league with 247.4 passing yards per game. Something has to give in that matchup.
Related: Some NFL execs reportedly think the New York Jets should cut Aaron Rodgers this season
Houston Texans over Kansas City Chiefs
The 9-5 Texans are looking to play spoiler against the 13-1 Chiefs, who are on the verge of clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City is two games ahead of the Buffalo Bills for the No. 1 seed. In last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns, quarterback Patrick Mahomes injured his ankle, raising some minor concern. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites on Saturday, but we’re picking Houston for the upset.
Why the Week 16 upset?
Mahomes’ playing status is up in the air. He did fully participate in practice the last two days, but the team could opt to play it safe this week. Even if he does play, the Chiefs’ offense has struggled all season, particularly with pass protection — their offensive line has given up 35 sacks. The Texans’ defense has 45 sacks on the season, suggesting a long day ahead for Kansas City’s offensive line.
Related: Kansas City Chiefs get positive news on Patrick Mahomes’ injury update for Week 16
Tennessee Titans over Indianapolis Colts
The Titans recently made a quarterback change, benching Will Levis in favor of Mason Rudolph. Tennessee is 3-11 after losing to the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday, but this week they face one of the league’s worst defenses in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 6-8 after losing to the Broncos last week, 31-13. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point favorite, but we’re rolling the dice and picking the Titans.
Why the Week 16 upset?
The Titans’ defense is really good, ranking second in overall yards allowed per game (297.4) and third-best in pass yards allowed (195.2). The Colts’ offense struggles mightily with their passing game, ranking 29th while averaging 205 yards per game. The Titans’ defense could have a field day.