As the Las Vegas Raiders wrapped up mandatory minicamp, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero broke the news about the Minnesota Vikings’ decision to part ways with Dalvin Cook. Josh Jacobs should have an interest in where the four-time Pro Bowl running back lands in the coming weeks.
Jacobs hasn’t signed his franchise tender, and as a result, he couldn’t join the Raiders for their spring workouts. While away from the team, Jacobs likely took note of the latest buzz around Cook.
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NFL players pay agents and agencies to estimate their positional market value, though Jacobs could get a good read on what he could command while at a contract impasse with the Raiders. This year, the free-agent running back class lacked star power and marquee names.
Miles Sanders signed the biggest deal among running backs, inking a four-year, $25 million contract ($13 million guaranteed) with the Carolina Panthers, which is a relatively modest salary for a player coming off his best season with 1,347 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage.
With all due respect to Sanders’ contributions in Philadelphia, Jacobs has put together a more impressive resume with the Raiders. He just led the league in rushing (1,653), scrimmage yards (2,053) and earned his first All-Pro nod. On top of that, the 25-year-old ball carrier has racked up 1,065-plus yards on the ground in three out of four seasons and registered 12 rushing touchdowns in two campaigns.
What’s the best-case scenario for Josh Jacobs?
As Jacobs hesitates to sign a $10.1 million franchise tag, he can look at Cook’s contract negotiations as a reference for his talks with the Raiders.
Cook hasn’t won a rushing title nor does he have an All-Pro season on his resume, but he’s performed at a high level with consistency, eclipsing 1,135 rushing yards and 1,383 scrimmage yards in four consecutive terms. Going into his age-28 campaign, Cook can handle 300-plus touches in a three-down role.
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From Jacobs’ perspective, he should hope that Cook draws several suitors and signs a deal worth more than his $10.1 million franchise tag. While that’s unlikely without contract incentives because of a depressed running back market, Jacobs can make the case for a few million dollars more than Cook, who’s three years older and saw a drop-off in rushing yards per game for a single season since 2020.
In the prime of his career with few opportunities for running backs to cash in on standout seasons, Jacobs needs a player at his position to top Sanders’ $6.25 million annual salary and $13 million guaranteed to help his push for a top-market deal.
Cook’s new contract should lead all free-agent running backs in every aspect from yearly salary to guaranteed money, but by how much?
Jacobs may have to bet on himself for 2024 payout
If Cook signs a deal worth $8-9 million annually, which would rank outside the top 10 among running backs, Jacobs should prepare to play out the 2023 season with the franchise tender. Remember, the Raiders have until July 17 to sign him to a multiyear extension. So, the team should have a clear idea of where it stands with Jacobs before training camp.
In the meantime, the Raiders and Jacobs will have an interest in Cook’s new deal. If a top-tier running back who’s been a key cog in a high-level offense accepts a low-ball offer, Jacobs may have to bet on himself, put together another impressive campaign and look forward to free agency in 2024.
Though the Raiders expect Jimmy Garoppolo to be ready for training camp, any lingering concern about his foot could work in Jacobs’ favor because the team would be able to cut the quarterback without charge thanks to a clause (Addendum G) in his contract. Otherwise, head coach Josh McDaniels would need to rely on the ground attack to preserve his signal-caller’s health.
If Jacobs believes he’ll run the ball 300-plus times in consecutive seasons, he may prefer to play for a playoff-contending team rather than subject his body to all the wear and tear for a club that may struggle to stay above .500 in the standings.
We’ll find out how an established running back in his prime fares on the open market. Whatever Cook gets, Jacobs will be in a similar ballpark.
Of course, the Raiders will publicly say that a free agent’s negotiations with other teams won’t have any bearing on their talks with Jacobs, but everyone saw how the market can change contract demands when wide receivers commanded lucrative deals last offseason. We’ve seen the opposite with running backs this year.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.