The 2023 season has proven the importance of having quality NFL quarterbacks both as a starter and a backup. While there are plenty of regular-season games ahead, several starting quarterbacks right now could lose their jobs in 2024.
Turnover at the quarterback position is nothing new, but there can often be a game of musical chair with teams trying out different NFL quarterbacks. The upcoming 2024 NFL Draft class will play a huge part in the process this offseason, reshaping the landscape at the position considerably. Of course, NFL free agency will play a massive role as well.
Let’s examine four starting NFL quarterbacks who could lose their spots in 2024. Importantly, we’re excluding current backups who’ve been pushed into starting roles or benched quarterbacks.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s fair to wonder if the Pittsburgh Steelers would’ve drafted Kenny Pickett with the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft if he played for another college. Pickett was a local favorite, starring for the Pittsburgh Panthers and coming with a glowing review from Pitt’s coaching staff. However, many around the NFL were skeptical of him being a first-round talent.
- Kenny Pickett career stats: 77.7 QB rating, 61.9% completion rate, 13-13 TD-INT, 6.2 ypa
Even with Matt Canada as his offensive coordinator, 23 games is enough of a sample size to judge a quarterback. While he hasn’t had the benefit of a good offensive line to protect him, a career 1.9 percent touchdown rate on 670 attempts. For context, David Carr had a 2.9 percent touchdown rate during his career.
It’s a testament to Pittsburgh’s defense and head coach Mike Tomlin that this team has been able to win in spite of Pickett. However, change is needed. The Steelers must be among the teams in the 2024 NFL quarterbacks carousel, with an option like Kirk Cousins a worthwhile gamble.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Of all the NFL quarterbacks on our list, Keegan Murray has the most control of his destiny. The Arizona Cardinals are currently positioned to have a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, meaning they’ll have a strong chance at Drake Maye or Caleb Williams.
There’s a strong incentive for Arizona to trade Murray in 2204 and use its top pick on Williams. Not only does Murray already now have an ACL tear, but his frame was always viewed as a long-term concern regarding durability. More importantly, Murray carries a $51.857 million cap hit in 2024.
However, Murray is also a two-time Pro Bowl selection who is just a few seasons removed from playing at an MVP-caliber level. There’s no guarantee Maye or Williams will reach that ceiling. It puts Arizona in a fascinating situation for 2024.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is in a similar situation to Murray, albeit with far less control. At his best, Fields is one of the most exciting NFL quarterbacks right now. Unfortunately, the former Ohio State Buckeyes star also hasn’t developed as much as a passer as the Chicago Bears hoped.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft order, picks by team
If Chicago didn’t own the Carolina Panthers’ first round-pick, Fields has a lot more control over his future. Of course, the Bears do have that selection and it means they have a 50 percent shot of holding the No. 1 overall pick.
Unless Fields plays like a top-10 quarterback the rest of the way, he’ll likely hit the trade block in 2024. The bright side for Fields, of course, is he could go to a very nice situation and start immediately.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints aren’t competing for the NFC South right now because of Derek Carr. In fact, the Las Vegas Raiders’ decision to move on from the veteran quarterback looks even smarter in hindsight. Entering Week 12, Carr had the eighth-highest rate of bad throws (17.6 percent) and he ranked 21st among quarterbacks in EPA per play.
- Derek Carr contract: $35.7 million cap hit in 2023, $35.7 million dead cap in 2024 if designated as post-June 1 release
That’s simply not good enough for what the Saints are paying for, especially with Carr’s contract escalating in value in 2024. It’s also not as if New Orleans hasn’t put Carr in a quality situation, playing in a dome with good receivers. It’s just not translating to success. Cutting Carr would come with a massive cap hit, but there’s also no reason to believe he’ll improve in his age-33 season.
