
It’s the AFC Championship Game many hoped to see when the NFL playoffs began. Sunday’s battle between the Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs is a clash of titans, with the stakes at an all-time high. The recent history of the Bills vs Chiefs matchups has been dominated by Buffalo in the regular season only for Kansas City to come out on top when it matters most in the playoffs. Now, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen meet again in a potential all-time classic with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Let’s dive into our AFC Championship Game predictions, including both the winner and key performances.
Travis Kelce ties Jerry Rice’s record for career playoff TDs

Already one of the best tight ends ever, a Super Bowl run for the Kansas City Chiefs would give Travis Kelce a legitimate shot to become the all-time leader in career receiving yards (226 yards shy) and receiving touchdowns (3 short) by overtaking Jerry Rice. Neither record will be broken in the AFC Championship Game, but we can see Kelce tying Rice’s touchdown record.
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The Buffalo Bills just allowed 134 receiving yards on 10 targets to Baltimore Ravens’ tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, even with multiple drops. Kansas City’s receiving corps is even better, which makes accounting for Kelce that much more difficult. It might not be a huge game for him in terms of yardage, but we predict he will score two touchdowns to match Rice’s record.
James Cook rushes for 100-plus yards, TD

The Denver Broncos – 34.2% Rush Success Rate allowed (2nd) – and the Baltimore Ravens (31.5%) had the two best run defenses in the NFL during the regular season. As highlighted by Benjamin Solak, the Buffalo Bills caused both the Broncos (50% success rate and 210 yards) and the Ravens (55.6% success rate, 147 yards and 3 touchdowns) to have their worst performances of the season defending the run.
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Since Week 15, the Chiefs’ opponents have averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Even the Houston Texans (149 yards and 5.1 ypc) – 31st in ESPN run-block win rate (68 percent) during the regular season – had success running on Kansas City. With stopping Josh Allen being the focal point, Bills’ running back James Cook will have his second 100-yard game of the playoffs.
Josh Allen scores 3 second-half touchdowns

Credit to the Buffalo Bills for their game plan against the Baltimore Ravens, recognizing that throwing the football around in that weather wasn’t a recipe to win the game. Sunday’s Bills vs Chiefs matchup at Arrowhead Stadium will provide a more friendly environment for both passing games and we are confident Allen will take advantage.
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Buffalo has the offensive line to hold up against the Chiefs’ pass rush, giving Allen time to throw. However, we do think it will be James Cook who accounts for the early yardage and scoring against Kansas City. Trailing at halftime, Allen responds with three second-half touchdowns to create one of the most memorable AFC Championship Games in recent memory.
Patrick Mahomes delivers 300-plus total yards, 3 touchdowns

In the Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, quarterback Patrick Mahomes set his career-low for passing yards (177) in a playoff game. It also marked just the fourth time in 19 playoff starts that he only scored 1 total touchdown. We expect a very different performance in the AFC Championship Game.
- Patrick Mahomes stats vs Buffalo Bills (career): 85.9 QB rating, 10-7 TD-INT, 64.8% completion rate, 1-4 record in 5 regular-season games
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- Patrick Mahomes stats vs Buffalo Bills (playoffs): 126.6 QB rating, 8-0 TD-INT, 75.2% completion rate, 3-0 record in 3 games
Mahomes is just different versus Buffalo in the playoffs. It also helps his case in this matchup that the Bills will likely be without safety Taylor Rapp (hip) while No. 2 cornerback Rasul Douglas has been a liability in coverage this season. With a chance to keep the Chiefs’ three-peat hopes alive, we predict Mahomes records 265-plus passing yards and 3 touchdowns with 35-plus rushing yards.
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Buffalo Bills win the AFC Championship Game with iconic rally

The third time is supposed to be the charm, but Josh Allen has already come up short thrice in the postseason against Patrick Mahomes. In the first half of the AFC Championship Game, it’s going to look a lot like history will repeat itself. Then, Allen cements his legacy with a second-half comeback that is remembered forever in Buffalo. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Allen leads the final drive that sets up a Tyler Bass field-goal attempt. This time, Bass hits it and the Bills reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.
- Buffalo Bills 31, Kansas City Chiefs 28
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