The NBA regular season had drawn to a close with the Eastern and Western Conference seedings for the first six teams determined. Now it’s time to determine who the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets will play. So it’s time for our annual NBA Play-In Tournament predictions.
The field is similar to the NBA Play-In Tournament 2024. A year ago, the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat are back in the East’s tournament. Out West, the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors are returning as well. There are also newcomers, with the Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks.
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Before diving into our NBA Play-In Tournament predictions, here’s a quick rundown of the schedule.
NBA Play-In Tournament schedule
Here’s the schedule for the NBA Play-In Tournament 2025.
| Date | Matchup | Time (ET) | How to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, April 15 | Hawks @ Magic | 7:30 PM | TNT |
| Tuesday, April 15 | Grizzlies @ Warriors | 10:00 PM | TNT |
| Wednesday, April 16 | Heat @ Bulls | 7:30 PM | ESPN |
| Wednesday, April 16 | Mavericks @ Kings | 10:00 PM | ESPN |
| Thursday, April 17 | 7/8 Loser vs East 9/10 winner | TBA | TNT |
| Thursday, April 17 | 7/8 Loser vs East 9/10 winner | TBA | ESPN |
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NBA Play-In Tournament predictions
Eastern Conference
Orlando Magic 116, Atlanta Hawks 110
The Atlanta Hawks were one of just three teams (Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls) to reach the NBA Play-In Tournament despite having a negative point differential (-1.2) this season. However, the Orlando Magic (0.0) weren’t much better and the two teams split the four-game season series with a close point differential. However, we are giving the edge to the Magic for one critical reason.
Orlando finished the season with the second-fewest points per 100 possessions allowed (109.9), per Cleaning The Glass and it ranked 11th in effective Field Goal percentage allowed (54.2% eFG). Meanwhile, Atlanta was just slightly above league average in points per 100 possessions (115.3) and it ranked 19th in Pts/Poss allowed (115.9). Factor in the Hawks’ turnover issues and this becomes a matchup that favors Orlando’s strength.
Chicago Bulls 114, Miami Heat 108
The Miami Heat made a move for the future with the Jimmy Butler trade, but it came at the expense of the team being anything close to competitive in the postseason. Since trading Butler to the Golden State Warriors, the Heat have gone 12-20 with a -1.7 point differential. It’s a very different story for the Chicago Bulls since the Zach LaVine trade, as evidenced by their 17-13 record with a +1.7 point differential. During that 29-game run, Coby White shined – 23.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.2 APG – and Josh Giddey – 20 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 8.5 APG – have thrived. Miami has experience on its side, but its past two months of basketball suggest an early exit is coming.
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Atlanta Hawks 118, Miami Heat 110
Atlanta hasn’t been great this season, but it has played much better basketball as of late, ending the regular season with a 17-14 record and a +2.0 point differential in the last 31 games. One key driving force behind the Hawks’ success is Dyson Daniels, who shot 52.6% from the field while averaging 14.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 3 steals per game. The combo of Daniels and Trae Young – 25.5 PPG and 12 APG averages in the last 20 games – should fuel Atlanta’s advance to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference.
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors 128, Memphis Grizzlies 118
Since firing head coach Taylor Jenkins on May 28, the Memphis Grizzlies have posted a 10-14 record with some of that saved by a 4-2 stretch at the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have dominated since the Jimmy Butler trade with a stellar 23-8 record and one of those losses came with Butler sidelined. It’s also worth noting that Golden State beat Memphis 134-125 in the last matchup on April 1. Plus, the Warriors went 3-1 in the season series. The Warriors (-7.0) are the heavy favorites for a reason and we expect them to cruise past the Grizzlies.
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Sacramento Kings 123, Dallas Mavericks 119
Neither the Sacramento Kings nor the Dallas Mavericks are playing quality basketball right now. After the De’Aaron Fox trade, Sacramento got hot initially with a 7-2 record (Feb. 8 – March 3) with a +8.5 point differential. Since that stretch, the club posted an 8-14 record with a -3.6-point differential. Maybe there’s hope that a solid start to April (4-3 record and +5.3-point differential) can provide some momentum entering the NBA Play-In Tournament, but that feels like a stretch.
As for Dallas, it recorded a 13-19 record with a -6.2-point differential following the Luka Doncic trade. Now, it’s certainly worth recognizing that devastating injuries to the Mavericks roster played a significant part in that. Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington and Dereck Lively are back, but Dallas has no real defensive answers for Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. This is where the Mavericks’ season ends.
Memphis Grizzlies 138, Sacramento Kings 131
This should be the Ja Morant show. While his celebrations have drawn the ire of the league office, Morant has plenty of reason to celebrate, given his play as of late. He averaged 26.8 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds per game over his last 22 contests, all with a .571 TS%. Meanwhile, Jaren Jackson Jr. is enjoying a phenomenal year and he offers the defensive ability that Memphis will need against Domantas Sabonis. We’re expecting Morant to come through big to close out the NBA Play-In Tournament, scoring over 30 points to clinch the 8 seed.
