The 2024 Major League Baseball season is almost here and Sportsnaut’s MLB predictions offer projections for the standings with an outlook for all 30 teams across the league.
While Sportsnaut’s MLB games today provide the full schedule from Opening Day 2024 through the final out of the World Series, fans love projections. Just as we did last year, our MLB predictions take a look at rosters and farm systems to forecast what could happen this season in baseball.
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Let’s dive into our MLB predictions.
MLB predictions 2024: American League projections
AL East predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Baltimore Orioles | 90 | 72 |
| New York Yankees | 87 | 75 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 84 | 78 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 84 | 78 |
| Boston Red Sox | 77 | 85 |
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles suffered a blow to their starting rotation to open spring training, which raises significant questions about the club’s pitching depth. However, both Baltimore and New York have major injury concerns. The difference is one club is significantly younger, with both the top prospects who could debut quickly and the depth in the farm system to acquire any player available at the MLB trade deadline. It will be neck-and-neck all year, but we’ll give a slight edge to the Orioles.
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New York Yankees
The New York Yankees definitely have the talent to win it all, they do most years. There’s obviously even more hope this season with Juan Soto joining the lineup and New York actively in the trade market for a front-line starter. Adding that would certainly put New York over the top, but we also can’t ignore the fact that this club hasn’t even been to the World Series since 2009. With all of the injury concerns on a relatively older team, there’s just enough hesitation with the Yankees in 2024. Those injury worries have already proven warranted thanks to Gerrit Cole’s elbow trouble that may sideline him for multiple months.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are always competitive and consistently maintain one of the best farm systems in baseball. However, Wander Franco is likely never playing baseball again and Tyler Glasnow is gone. Making the playoffs as a Wild Card team is doable and you can always bet on the Rays delivering a few breakout players each year. The loss of top talent, however, leaves enough hesitation to believe Tampa Bay experiences a dip.
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Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays made two big additions this offseason; signing designated hitter Justin Turner and adding cupholders to the Rogers Centre. Outside of that, ownership seems to be banking almost entirely on a talented roster rebounding after a down year in 2023. Marginal improvements team-wide are possible, but the lack of impact additions after last year’s issues paired with worries at the back of the rotation
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Boston Red Sox
Competing simply doesn’t seem to be atop the priority list for the Fenway Sports Group right now. When players and front office execs privately complain about the lack of commitment from ownership to improving the roster, it highlights the organizational issue. Boston has Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, but the rotation is a major weakness and the bottom of the lineup could be abysmal.
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AL Central predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 80 | 82 |
| Detroit Tigers | 80 | 82 |
| Kansas City Royals | 74 | 88 |
| Chicago White Sox | 62 | 100 |
Minnesota Twins
Much like last season, arguably more so in 2024, the Minnesota Twins won’t have much competition in the AL Central. The Cleveland Guardians pitching will provide a fight and the Detroit Tigers are on the rise, but the Twins have a .600-plus winning percentage in three of their last five seasons. The departures of Sonny Gray and Jorge Polanco will hurt, but Minnesota does have a lot of infield depth. There’s just enough talent here to win 82-plus games, especially with Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan atop the rotation and supported by a good pen.
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Cleveland Guardians
It’s essentially the same Cleveland Guardians roster as last year. Theoretically, Cleveland could rebound from its 16-game decline from 2022 to 2024, but the numbers last season reflected that this just wasn’t a good team. Nothing was done to improve the outfield or lack of power and Shane Bieber could be dealt by July. There’s just very little reason to believe Cleveland is a contender in 2024.
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Detroit Tigers
The time is coming for the Detroit Tigers. Even with a few misses on prospects and the disastrous Javier Baez contract, the Tigers are steadily improving. Tarik Skubal leads a rotation that should be better in 2024 with added depth in the middle of the rotation, while Mark Canha and Gio Urshella add much-needed help to the end of the lineup. We’re not ready to bet on Detroit posting a winning record, but that time will come in 2025.
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Kansas City Royals
At least the Kansas City Royals are trying. They’re going to trot out something closer to an MLB-caliber rotation this season and the trio of MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr and Vinnie Pasquantino near the top of the lineup provides reason for excitement. Yes, the bottom of the batting order is bad and not a single starter in the Royals rotation will likely post a sub-4 ERA, but at least this team should be better than it was last year.
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Chicago White Sox
The rebuild is finally happening, although, it took a while to happen. Late in spring training, the Chicago White Sox flipped ace Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres, significantly improving their farm system with multiple top-10 prospects injected into the minor leagues. Of course, trading Cease shaves even more wins off our MLB projections for Chicago. Now, we’re left wondering how long it is until the White Sox trade Luis Robert.
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AL West predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Houston Astros | 90 | 72 |
| Texas Rangers | 86 | 76 |
| Seattle Mariners | 86 | 76 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 71 | 91 |
| Oakland Athletics | 66 | 98 |
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros rotation was decimated by injuries in 2023, but this club still came close to reaching the World Series. One season later, the core of Jose Altuve-Yordan Alvarez-Alex Bregman-Kyle Tucker could all earn All-Star selections in 2024 and Houston’s starting rotation should be excellent if frequent IL trips can be avoided. While this might not be the best Astros roster in the last few years, Houston just needs to make it October to go on a run and we’ve learned to never count out the Astros in the postseason.
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Texas Rangers
For transparency, our MLB predictions a year ago had the Texas Rangers winning 73 games. Needless to say, we underestimated the World Series champions. Heading into the 2024 season, we love the Rangers lineup even with Corey Seager returning from injury. Unfortunately, Texas’ pitching depth will be tested early with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom sidelined for at least half the season. Still, the Rangers are now similar to the Astros in that all that’s required is making the playoffs and being healthy in October. If Texas can do that, it honestly has a good shot at another deep playoff run.
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Seattle Mariners
Budgetary issues prevented the Seattle Mariners from making meaningful contributions to their roster this winter, meaning a few additions will be asked to be the difference-makers this year. Fortunately for Seattle, it has one of the best starting rotations in baseball and over a 162-game season, that’s more important than anything to make the playoffs. However, the other side of the is a bullpen already dealing with injuries and some worries at the end of the lineup. Still, there’s enough firepower when combined with the stellar rotation to have confidence in projecting Seattle to contend for a playoff spot.
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Los Angeles Angels
There’s no real reason for excitement with the Los Angeles Angels in 2024. Shohei Ohtani is gone, Mike Trout is a year older and Anthony Rendon has very little interest in playing baseball. The Angels lineup might still put out above-average production, but that doesn’t mean much when you have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and Trout is an injury risk.
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Oakland Athletics
There’s very little to say about the 2024 Oakland Athletics except for the fact that, much like last season, the fans deserve better. Alex Wood is a rebound candidate in 2024, while Ruan Noda, Zack Gelof and Shea Langeliers provide some excitement for the future. Still, this is arguably the worst team in MLB and John Fisher will be responsible for a lot of MLB teams picking up easy wins this season.
2024 MLB predictions: National League projections
NL East predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Atlanta Braves | 96 | 66 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89 | 73 |
| New York Mets | 79 | 83 |
| Miami Marlins | 78 | 84 |
| Washington Nationals | 64 | 98 |
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have posted a winning percentage of .547 or better in each of their last six seasons and are coming off consecutive 100-win campaigns. There are three MVP-caliber bats in the lineup (Ronald Acuña Jr, Austin Riley and Matt Olson) along with All-Star hitters in Ozie Albies and Sean Murphy. When you add that to this excellent pitching staff, now featuring Chris Sale as a back-end starter, there’s no reason to think the Braves won’t have one of the best records in MLB this year and can challenge the Dodgers for the NL crown.
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Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies really didn’t add anything this offseason, which is a bit of a letdown for a perennial World Series contender. There are major questions towards the back of the rotation and those will be amplified if Ranger Suarez or Taijuan Walker struggle. Still, the Phillies are the second-best team in the NL East and the National League itself is top-heavy enough right for the Phillies to snag a Wild Card spot.
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New York Mets
The all-in team blew up by the All-Star Break in 2023, forcing the New York Mets front office to ship off the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. It was absolutely the right thing to do, but after losing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency, New York heads into Opening Day with Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea headlining its rotation. If Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez can deliver strong campaigns, the Mets lineup should be very good. Unfortunately for New York, it doesn’t have the pitching to be taken seriously as a contender.
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Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara is sidelined for the season and the Miami Marlins made marginal improvements to their batting order. While Miami has the starting pitching depth to overcome Alcantara’s injury and even part ways with a starter at some point this year, a pedestrian lineup and bullpen leave serious doubt about the Marlins doing anything other than fighting for a .500 record.
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Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball once again, but at least their farm system is improving. Neither CJ Abrams nor Keibert Ruiz look like they’ll develop into building blocks for Washington long-term, but there’s more hope on the pitching side. What’s far more important for the Nationals is the eventual arrival of some of their top prospects.
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NL Central predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Chicago Cubs | 84 | 78 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 83 | 79 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 81 | 81 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 78 | 84 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 74 | 88 |
Chicago Cubs
Before the re-signing of Cody Bellinger, the Chicago Cubs would’ve fallen a spot behind the St. Louis Cardinals in our MLB predictions. However, Bellinger is the piece that was sorely missing from the Cubs lineup and wth him added, Chicago now has six potential bats that can clear a .700 OPS. As for Chicago’s pitching, Justin Steele is the only trusted front-line starter, but Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga offered some upside. Plus, Kyle Hendricks has proven to be an innings-eater who can go five-plus and get quality starts. In a tight division race, that could be just enough for Chicago.
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St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitching was the St. Louis Cardinals’ biggest problem last season. Not only did they land an ace (Sonny Gray), but they also strengthened the middle of their rotation with Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Neither will be above-average starters at this point in their career, but they will allow St. Louis to be a lot more competitive in close games, especially with this defense behind him. The NLDS feels like a ceiling for this Cardinals team, but just making the postseason would be an improvement over last year’s results.
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Cincinnati Reds
While plenty of teams around baseball spend years rebuilding and then slowly start to climb their way back, the Cincinnati Reds are working with an accelerated timetable. The Reds improved at first base with Jeimer Candelario over Joey Votto and there’s some intriguing upside with Matt McClain, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and Noelvi Marte. We do consider Elly De La Cruz a wild card, however, because he slashes .200/288/359 with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in his final 220 plate appearances. As for the Reds pitching, it has a considerably higher ceiling than we’ve seen in previous seasons and while ERAs will be elevated in that hitter-friendly ballpark, Cincinnati can’t be ruled out for an NL Central title in 2024.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Corbin Burnes is gone and Brandon Woodruff is sidelined for the year, turning a once-dominant Milwaukee Brewers rotation into a weakness. Freddy Peralta has shown stretches of being a front-line starter, but it’s not wise to bet on him staying healthy and maintaining that over a full season. While the Brewers’ lineup should be considerably better than it has in years past, the decline in pitching feels like the anchor that will pull the Brewers down in the standings.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
We mentioned slow rebuilds and that’s exactly what the Pittsburgh Pirates are going through. We haven’t seen this club win 80 games since the 2018 season and while they made small improvements this winter, they still don’t have much impact talent outside of Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. Henry Davis could get this club’s win total up a bit if he improves, but there’s long-term uncertainty about whether he’ll hit enough to justify playing in the outfield or can be good enough defensively to stick at catcher.
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NL West predictions
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 95 | 67 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 85 | 77 |
| San Diego Padres | 82 | 80 |
| San Francisco Giants | 82 | 80 |
| Colorado Rockies | 63 | 99 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are all-in and while we’ve seen that backfire before, see the New York Mets, the difference is Dodgers’ ownership added onto an already loaded roster. There’s little doubt that the Dodgers are one of the three most talented teams in MLB and the MVP-caliber bats in the lineup are reason enough alone to pick them to make the playoffs. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow leading the rotation and Clayton Kershaw eventually returning, that’s what makes the Dodgers a World Series favorite. If there’s going to be one thing, beyond injuries, that derails the Dodgers in the playoffs it will be the alarming infield defense that haunted them in spring training.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Kudos to the Arizona Diamondbacks for staying aggressive after last season’s incredible run. We fully expect the Diamondbacks rotation to be even better in 2024 with the addition of Eduardo Rodrigue. As for the lineup, bringing in Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson should provide some much-needed pop. While winning the NL pennant seems doubtful, Arizona should be among the NL clubs to snag a Wild Card spot.
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San Diego Padres
It’s the end of an era. The San Diego Padres started slashing payroll this offseason and it’s likely not going to be the last time that happens. The turning point for this franchise was really the passing of owner Peter Seidler, who ran this club like fans want to see most MLB teams run. Pitching is the big question we had for San Diego at the start of spring training. Out of nowhere, they swung a huge move for Dylan Cease. A front-line starter changes the entire outlook for the Padres rotation and with the talent already existing in San Diego’s lineup and bullpen, we believe the Padres have enough to be Wild Card contenders again.
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San Francisco Giants
Credit to the San Francisco Giants for making the necessary moves, albeit later than expected, to firmly establish themselves as a Wild Card challenger in 2024. It started with the addition of Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, a KBO star who landed a $113 million contract. Lee will provide solid outfield defense and a high average to the Giants lineup. Then, San Francisco struck early in the spring by signing Matt Chapman. We believe he’s a lot closer to the low-average and high-power player we’ve seen through large stretches in Toronto, but his defense at third base paired with his power are huge boosts for the Giants. Finally, days before Opening Day, the Giants added much-needed help to the front of their rotation with reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. A Snell-Logan Webb combo is outstanding and this rotation will be even better if Alex Cobb stays healthy, allowing rookie Kyle Harrison to work through his early mistakes as a No. 4 starter.
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Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, a title they became familiar with in 2023. Colorado’s pitching was never good, but elbow surgeries to some proven starters have only made it worse. While the Rockies lineup will produce quite a few runs at Coors Field, it will rarely be enough to catch up with what the pitching staff surrenders to opponents. A rebuild is so desperately needed in Colorado.
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