The 2023 season has been a bumpy ride especially when it comes to NFL quarterbacks. It’s been a season of surprises with an unprecedented change among starting quarterbacks taking the field and injuries leaving everyone puzzled.
Is this year an exception or is it part of a larger trend in the league? Let’s analyze the data to understand if quarterback play in the NFL is as bad as some say it is.
Quarterback performance: Is there an actual decline?
To grasp the current state of quarterback play, we need to examine the numbers.
One common measurement of a passer’s overall efficiency is Quarterback Rating (QBR), which has shown a decrease across the league and is currently at its lowest point in five seasons. In 2023, the average QBR for all quarterbacks stands at 51.2 compared to 55.1 in 2019. There are reasons for this, including more advanced defenses and complex strategies and the retirement of long-standing veterans who dominated their position for years.
When we examine completion percentages, touchdown to interception ratios and yards per attempt closely it becomes apparent that there is a trend within the league that falls within what we can consider normal variation.
The completion rates have seen a decrease of 1.4% while the touchdown to interception ratios have experienced a dip of 0.2. Yards per attempt have also dropped by 0.4. It’s important to keep these numbers in perspective and understand that minor fluctuations in performance metrics are quite common in the changing world of the NFL.
In addition to these statistics there has been an uptick in the number of games where quarterbacks threw interceptions. In 2023 there were 126 games with two interceptions thrown by a quarterback compared to 118 games in 2022 and 102 games in 2021.
There could be several factors contributing to this decline in quarterback performance.
One potential explanation is that defenses across the NFL have raised their level of play. Another possibility is that quarterbacks themselves may not be performing at the levels they once did. Over the few years we’ve bid farewell to some legendary quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger as they retired from the NFL. Each one of them undoubtedly set a standard at their position, with every one of them having won at least one Super Bowl.
“I think the quality of play at the quarterback position has declined in recent years,” said former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi. “There are a few elite quarterbacks left, but there’s a lot more mediocrity.”
At this stage it’s premature to determine if this decline in quarterback performance will become a long term trend. However, based on the data collected from the 2023 NFL season there are indications of a temporary drop off.
The revolving door of starters in 2023
One notable observation is the rotation of starting quarterbacks throughout the league. As we approach Week 10 of the season, an unprecedented number of players (66) have already played the position. This surpasses records set in 2022 (64) and 2021 (52).
Why do teams frequently switch their quarterback? Analysts point out several contributing factors:
The immense pressure to achieve success — fast: In today’s NFL landscape, teams face tremendous pressure to deliver instant victories. Consequently, starting quarterbacks are swiftly replaced at any sign of underperformance.
The instant move to rookies: The NFL has seen a surge of rookie quarterbacks who have been given starting roles from the beginning. This puts pressure on veteran quarterbacks to maintain a level of performance and makes teams more willing to make substitutions when needed. Unfortunately, this also means that young quarterbacks don’t have much time to develop their skills or to have a strong team built around them.
The increase in offenses built on high-flying passing games: Teams have increased their reliance on the passing game significantly putting higher expectations on quarterbacks to execute with precision. Accuracy and playmaking abilities are now qualities that cannot be compromised. As a result, quarterbacks’ careers can be cut short if they consistently underperform.
Super Bowl champion coach Tony Dungy agrees that the decline in NFL quarterback play is the result of several factors. Including one that he calls out bluntly.
“I think it’s a combination of factors,” Dungy said. “The defenses are better, the rules are different, and the quarterbacks are not as good as they used to be.”
The impact of injuries on NFL quarterbacks
During the 2023 NFL season, injuries have affected quarterbacks at a higher rate than ever. Injuries to quarterbacks this season are at a five-year high.
A total of 16 quarterbacks have missed at least one game due to injury this season, surpassing the numbers from 2022 (12) and 2021 (10). The severity of these injuries has also increased significantly compared to previous years. For instance, last week, Daniel Jones of the New York Giants suffered a season-ending knee injury and will be out for the rest of the year.
What factors contribute to these higher injury rates? Is there a reason behind more season-ending incidents like those we saw happen to Aaron Rodgers in Week 1?
There is no definite answer. One major theory suggests the shortened preseason could be a factor since quarterbacks have limited time for conditioning before entering regular season games. This lack of preparation may make them more vulnerable to getting injured.
Another significant factor could be attributed to the rising popularity of dual threat quarterbacks. Several notable players like Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have suffered injuries over the past two seasons causing them to miss games. As more and more quarterbacks incorporate running plays into their repertoire, there’s a risk of getting hit and subsequently getting injured.
The surge in injuries has led to a number of teams rotating their starting quarterbacks throughout the first nine weeks of this season. In fact,12 teams have already made changes to their starting quarterbacks this year—compared to nine teams in 2022 and seven teams back in 2021.
The season has a long way to go
The present state of quarterback play has ignited a debate among experts and fans. While some argue that it’s merely a slump in performance others believe it signifies a more fundamental change in the dynamics of the quarterback role. As the season unfolds it will be captivating to watch how the quarterback landscape evolves and whether these current trends persist or pave the way for a resurgence of quarterback play.
Is 2023 a season like no other? The data provides insights which appear to point to it being unusual for quarterbacks across the league. While it’s not uncommon to see fluctuations in player performance and injuries in the NFL, this year presents a combination of statistical downturns, frequent changes in starting quarterbacks and an increase in injuries.
In the meantime, fans, analysts and the media will eagerly observe this unfolding drama as quarterbacks navigate through one of the most challenging seasons they have faced in recent memory.